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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 11, 2019

[ Sunday, November 10, 2019 | Index | Today | Tuesday, November 12, 2019 ]

DAY 42 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/12/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.12°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.50°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.31°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.875
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 236

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.69 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.15 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.84 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 6 in
SWE DAY: 51
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 321.88 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 1.90 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 122

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 72.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-11-12 04:00:11OBSERVATION20204212249.1199833.4999441.309965.895657500.690.150.84FF17.11998236.1199851321.88237511338 1.8977082389550.8750829482564189 55234272DRYH
2019-11-12 00:00:12FORECAST20204312332.9932.9932.993.9945880.00410.69410.150.8441FF0.99221.9951320.546341176911.28045056790920.266681581240948925234254DRYMH
2019-11-11 12:00:12FORECAST20204212250.141.3645.733.98199733333330.0060.6960.150.846FF18.1237.151320.537471183711.2763793554870.89592099705038955234272DRYH
2019-11-11 08:00:11FORECAST20204212251.0333.8442.4353.87211733333330.0170.7070.150.857FF19.03238.0351320.46004982981.24085891358680.913255436500548955234272DRYH
2019-11-11 04:00:11FORECAST20204212245.1832.5338.8553.9797280.02410.71410.150.8641FF13.18232.1851320.53587243191.27564558652170.763412274550378945234266DRYH
2019-11-11 00:00:13FORECAST20204212250.8535.7143.283.46031333333330.01790.57790.150.7279FF18.85229.8551320.169700767951.10788748449670.91008014834148955234272DRYH
2019-11-10 20:00:11FORECAST20204212250.3137.3643.8354.55209866666670.00730.57730.150.7273FF18.31241.3151320.938817386051.46094516270460.900038727941118955234272DRYH
2019-11-10 16:00:11FORECAST20204212250.5238.1344.3254.5361360.00470.57470.150.7247FF18.52241.5251320.927587719241.45577118404640.904036581229458955234272DRYH
2019-11-10 12:00:12FORECAST20204212249.4838.0543.7653.62637333333330.00270.57270.150.7227FF17.48240.4851320.286820595561.16147958522580.883052116528788955234272DRYH
2019-11-10 08:00:11FORECAST20204212250.3137.8544.083.4127360.0010.5610.150.711FF18.31241.3151320.136136025661.09254011631570.900038727941118955234272DRYH
2019-11-10 04:00:13FORECAST20204212250.2435.742.973.88144433333330.00170.57170.150.7217FF18.24238.2451320.466622465281.24387335579030.898679538065328955234272DRYH
2019-11-10 00:00:13FORECAST20204212250.4537.4543.953.93620666666670.00090.05090.150.2009FF18.45235.4551320.505209745251.26157474330070.902717197678028955214224DRYL
2019-11-09 20:00:11FORECAST20204212251.2638.3644.814.89241866666670.00220.13220.150.2822FF19.26243.2651321.17812273321.57133784298490.917190254900078955224248DRYM
2019-11-09 16:00:11FORECAST20204212252.1739.1545.664.74700533333330.00120.13120.150.2812FF20.17244.1751321.07589666731.52414899388450.931453566647658955224248DRYM
2019-11-09 12:00:12FORECAST20204212252.7839.7846.283.88381866666670.00070.12070.150.2707FF20.78244.7851320.46829560731.24464074855450.9399028202528955224248DRYM
2019-11-09 08:00:11FORECAST20204212251.5441.0246.283.64722133333330.00090.28090.150.4309FF19.54244.5451320.301520912431.16821054017090.921797961708438955224248DRYM
2019-11-09 04:00:12FORECAST20204212251.3941.2746.333.31752416666670.00190.26190.150.4119FF19.39243.3951320.068954029331.0618364899920.919354251251288955224248DRYM
2019-11-09 00:00:13FORECAST20204212252.2341.1146.672.24984933333330.00180.33180.150.4818FF20.23220.2351319.314483101220.718409476928960.932323098219358955224248DRYM
2019-11-08 20:00:12FORECAST20204212251.7640.8746.3153.4675320.00130.37130.150.5213FF19.76241.7651320.17479302111.1102163403940.925280252234748955224248DRYM
2019-11-08 16:00:11FORECAST20204212251.7540.4846.1153.35639466666670.00120.35120.150.5012FF19.75244.7551320.09638323171.07436979349820.92512456835688955224248DRYM
2019-11-08 12:00:12FORECAST20204212253.1839.6346.4052.32554533333330.0020.4020.150.552FF21.18245.1851319.368040987910.742704857335250.944986526178118955224248DRYM
2019-11-08 08:00:11FORECAST20204212246.5739.6243.0952.188660.00530.43530.160.5953FF14.57237.5751319.271181722720.698776064589240.807901009125728945224244DRYM
2019-11-08 04:00:12FORECAST20204212253.6538.8446.2451.683876750.01960.52960.150.6796FF21.65239.6551318.913708817340.537011379533790.95052024237418955234272DRYH
2019-11-08 00:00:13FORECAST20204212253.6842.8248.2500.01450.61450.150.7645FF21.68230.6851317.7179159447100.950857847978488955235290DRYVH
2019-11-07 20:00:11FORECAST20204212252.8941.7247.3050.6614920.00890.70890.150.8589FF20.89240.8951318.188279730020.210479001535170.941336057105328955234272DRYH
2019-11-07 16:00:11FORECAST20204212252.5143.9148.210.515914666666660.01080.84080.150.9908FF20.51244.5151318.084832602260.164104630383720.936269042399398955234272DRYH
2019-11-07 12:00:12FORECAST20204212252.5543.9348.2400.01080.83080.150.9808FF20.55244.5551317.7179159447100.936817881673428955235290DRYVH
2019-11-07 08:00:11FORECAST20204212253.341.6747.485000.580.150.73FF21.3236.351317.7179159447100.946443714040898955235290DRYVH
2019-11-07 04:00:12FORECAST20204212252.3840.2446.31000.20.150.35FF20.38243.3851317.7179159447100.934459765273578955225260DRYH
2019-11-07 00:00:14FORECAST20204212252.440.2546.325000.230.150.38FF20.4233.451317.7179159447100.934740670920128955225260DRYH
2019-11-06 20:00:11FORECAST20204212257.0843.750.3900.00140.23140.150.3814FF25.08271.0851317.7179159447100.978756941107928955225260DRYH
2019-11-06 16:00:11FORECAST20204212257.7543.7250.73500.00160.24160.150.3916FF25.75270.7551317.7179159447100.982258584329968955225260DRYH
2019-11-06 12:00:12FORECAST20204212260.2844.7252.500.00160.27160.150.4216FF28.28280.2851317.7179159447100.991407293799498955225260DRYH
2019-11-06 08:00:12FORECAST20204212260.1945.3252.75500.00250.09250.160.2525FF28.19281.1951317.7179159447100.991172026964368955225260DRYH
2019-11-06 04:00:16FORECAST20204212260.2245.3352.77500.00250.07250.160.2325FF28.22283.2251317.7179159447100.991251068493558955215230DRYL
2019-11-06 00:00:13FORECAST20204212257.8344.1350.9800.00130.21130.160.3713FF25.83250.8351317.7179159447100.982641827422278955225260DRYH
2019-11-05 20:00:12FORECAST20204212257.8644.145100.00130.21130.160.3713FF25.86278.8651317.7179159447100.982783712996218955225260DRYH
2019-11-05 16:00:11FORECAST20204212258.6544.0351.3400.00110.21110.160.3711FF26.65279.6551317.7179159447100.986179646214998955225260DRYH
2019-11-05 12:00:12FORECAST20204212258.6844.0551.36500.00110.21110.160.3711FF26.68281.6851317.7179159447100.986296343667918955225260DRYH
2019-11-05 08:00:11FORECAST20204212258.4940.8949.6900.24740.35740.160.5174FF26.49277.4951317.7179159447100.985542704323048955225260DRYH
2019-11-05 04:00:12FORECAST20204212258.5140.9249.71500.24740.35740.160.5174FF26.51271.5151317.7179159447100.985623677284988955225260DRYH
2019-11-05 00:00:13FORECAST20204212255.6841.4448.5600.01440.44440.160.6044FF23.68254.6851317.7179159447100.969536219043228955225260DRYH
2019-11-04 20:00:12FORECAST20204212254.7843.0548.91500.00480.43480.160.5948FF22.78276.7851317.7179159447100.962020651629248955225260DRYH
2019-11-04 16:00:12FORECAST20204212254.1242.9848.5500.00480.44480.160.6048FF22.12272.1251317.7179159447100.955601729991828955225260DRYH
2019-11-04 12:00:12FORECAST20204212249.2643.0146.13500.00440.44440.160.6044FF17.26269.2651317.7179159447100.87822615225288955225260DRYH
2019-11-04 08:00:11FORECAST20204212243.940.8842.3900.20761.96760.162.1276FF11.9258.951317.7179159447100.7178879387292189452552137.5DRYVH
2019-11-04 04:00:12FORECAST20204212244.7944.2944.5400.13471.93470.172.1047FF12.79257.7951317.7179159447100.7499833296431489452552137.5DRYVH