Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 11, 2019

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DAY 42 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/12/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.12°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.50°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.31°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.875 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 17 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 236 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.69 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.15 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.84 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 6 in SWE DAY: 51 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 321.88 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 1.90 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 122 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 5 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 4 D5: 2 HSdry: 72.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-11-12 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2020	42	122	49.11998	33.49994	41.30996	5.8956575	0	0.69	0.15	0.84	F	F	17.11998	236.11998	51	321.88237511338	1.897708238955	0.87508294825641	89	5	5	2	3	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-12 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	43	123	32.99	32.99	32.99	3.994588	0.0041	0.6941	0.15	0.8441	F	F	0.99	221.99	51	320.54634117691	1.2804505679092	0.26668158124094	89	2	5	2	3	4	2	54	DRY	MH
2019-11-11 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	42	122	50.1	41.36	45.73	3.9819973333333	0.006	0.696	0.15	0.846	F	F	18.1	237.1	51	320.53747118371	1.276379355487	0.8959209970503	89	5	5	2	3	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	42	122	51.03	33.84	42.435	3.8721173333333	0.017	0.707	0.15	0.857	F	F	19.03	238.03	51	320.4600498298	1.2408589135868	0.91325543650054	89	5	5	2	3	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-11 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	42	122	45.18	32.53	38.855	3.979728	0.0241	0.7141	0.15	0.8641	F	F	13.18	232.18	51	320.5358724319	1.2756455865217	0.76341227455037	89	4	5	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	42	122	50.85	35.71	43.28	3.4603133333333	0.0179	0.5779	0.15	0.7279	F	F	18.85	229.85	51	320.16970076795	1.1078874844967	0.9100801483414	89	5	5	2	3	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-10 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	42	122	50.31	37.36	43.835	4.5520986666667	0.0073	0.5773	0.15	0.7273	F	F	18.31	241.31	51	320.93881738605	1.4609451627046	0.90003872794111	89	5	5	2	3	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	42	122	50.52	38.13	44.325	4.536136	0.0047	0.5747	0.15	0.7247	F	F	18.52	241.52	51	320.92758771924	1.4557711840464	0.90403658122945	89	5	5	2	3	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-10 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	42	122	49.48	38.05	43.765	3.6263733333333	0.0027	0.5727	0.15	0.7227	F	F	17.48	240.48	51	320.28682059556	1.1614795852258	0.88305211652878	89	5	5	2	3	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	42	122	50.31	37.85	44.08	3.412736	0.001	0.561	0.15	0.711	F	F	18.31	241.31	51	320.13613602566	1.0925401163157	0.90003872794111	89	5	5	2	3	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-10 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	42	122	50.24	35.7	42.97	3.8814443333333	0.0017	0.5717	0.15	0.7217	F	F	18.24	238.24	51	320.46662246528	1.2438733557903	0.89867953806532	89	5	5	2	3	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-10 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	42	122	50.45	37.45	43.95	3.9362066666667	0.0009	0.0509	0.15	0.2009	F	F	18.45	235.45	51	320.50520974525	1.2615747433007	0.90271719767802	89	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-09 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	42	122	51.26	38.36	44.81	4.8924186666667	0.0022	0.1322	0.15	0.2822	F	F	19.26	243.26	51	321.1781227332	1.5713378429849	0.91719025490007	89	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	42	122	52.17	39.15	45.66	4.7470053333333	0.0012	0.1312	0.15	0.2812	F	F	20.17	244.17	51	321.0758966673	1.5241489938845	0.93145356664765	89	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-09 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	42	122	52.78	39.78	46.28	3.8838186666667	0.0007	0.1207	0.15	0.2707	F	F	20.78	244.78	51	320.4682956073	1.2446407485545	0.939902820252	89	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	42	122	51.54	41.02	46.28	3.6472213333333	0.0009	0.2809	0.15	0.4309	F	F	19.54	244.54	51	320.30152091243	1.1682105401709	0.92179796170843	89	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	42	122	51.39	41.27	46.33	3.3175241666667	0.0019	0.2619	0.15	0.4119	F	F	19.39	243.39	51	320.06895402933	1.061836489992	0.91935425125128	89	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-09 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	42	122	52.23	41.11	46.67	2.2498493333333	0.0018	0.3318	0.15	0.4818	F	F	20.23	220.23	51	319.31448310122	0.71840947692896	0.93232309821935	89	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-08 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	42	122	51.76	40.87	46.315	3.467532	0.0013	0.3713	0.15	0.5213	F	F	19.76	241.76	51	320.1747930211	1.110216340394	0.92528025223474	89	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	42	122	51.75	40.48	46.115	3.3563946666667	0.0012	0.3512	0.15	0.5012	F	F	19.75	244.75	51	320.0963832317	1.0743697934982	0.9251245683568	89	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-08 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	42	122	53.18	39.63	46.405	2.3255453333333	0.002	0.402	0.15	0.552	F	F	21.18	245.18	51	319.36804098791	0.74270485733525	0.94498652617811	89	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-08 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	42	122	46.57	39.62	43.095	2.18866	0.0053	0.4353	0.16	0.5953	F	F	14.57	237.57	51	319.27118172272	0.69877606458924	0.80790100912572	89	4	5	2	2	4	2	44	DRY	M
2019-11-08 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	42	122	53.65	38.84	46.245	1.68387675	0.0196	0.5296	0.15	0.6796	F	F	21.65	239.65	51	318.91370881734	0.53701137953379	0.9505202423741	89	5	5	2	3	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-08 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	42	122	53.68	42.82	48.25	0	0.0145	0.6145	0.15	0.7645	F	F	21.68	230.68	51	317.71791594471	0	0.95085784797848	89	5	5	2	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-11-07 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	42	122	52.89	41.72	47.305	0.661492	0.0089	0.7089	0.15	0.8589	F	F	20.89	240.89	51	318.18827973002	0.21047900153517	0.94133605710532	89	5	5	2	3	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-07 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	42	122	52.51	43.91	48.21	0.51591466666666	0.0108	0.8408	0.15	0.9908	F	F	20.51	244.51	51	318.08483260226	0.16410463038372	0.93626904239939	89	5	5	2	3	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-07 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	42	122	52.55	43.93	48.24	0	0.0108	0.8308	0.15	0.9808	F	F	20.55	244.55	51	317.71791594471	0	0.93681788167342	89	5	5	2	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-11-07 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	42	122	53.3	41.67	47.485	0	0	0.58	0.15	0.73	F	F	21.3	236.3	51	317.71791594471	0	0.94644371404089	89	5	5	2	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-11-07 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	42	122	52.38	40.24	46.31	0	0	0.2	0.15	0.35	F	F	20.38	243.38	51	317.71791594471	0	0.93445976527357	89	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-07 00:00:14	FORECAST	2020	42	122	52.4	40.25	46.325	0	0	0.23	0.15	0.38	F	F	20.4	233.4	51	317.71791594471	0	0.93474067092012	89	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-06 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	42	122	57.08	43.7	50.39	0	0.0014	0.2314	0.15	0.3814	F	F	25.08	271.08	51	317.71791594471	0	0.97875694110792	89	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-06 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	42	122	57.75	43.72	50.735	0	0.0016	0.2416	0.15	0.3916	F	F	25.75	270.75	51	317.71791594471	0	0.98225858432996	89	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-06 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	42	122	60.28	44.72	52.5	0	0.0016	0.2716	0.15	0.4216	F	F	28.28	280.28	51	317.71791594471	0	0.99140729379949	89	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-06 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	42	122	60.19	45.32	52.755	0	0.0025	0.0925	0.16	0.2525	F	F	28.19	281.19	51	317.71791594471	0	0.99117202696436	89	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-06 04:00:16	FORECAST	2020	42	122	60.22	45.33	52.775	0	0.0025	0.0725	0.16	0.2325	F	F	28.22	283.22	51	317.71791594471	0	0.99125106849355	89	5	5	2	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2019-11-06 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	42	122	57.83	44.13	50.98	0	0.0013	0.2113	0.16	0.3713	F	F	25.83	250.83	51	317.71791594471	0	0.98264182742227	89	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-05 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	42	122	57.86	44.14	51	0	0.0013	0.2113	0.16	0.3713	F	F	25.86	278.86	51	317.71791594471	0	0.98278371299621	89	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-05 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	42	122	58.65	44.03	51.34	0	0.0011	0.2111	0.16	0.3711	F	F	26.65	279.65	51	317.71791594471	0	0.98617964621499	89	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-05 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	42	122	58.68	44.05	51.365	0	0.0011	0.2111	0.16	0.3711	F	F	26.68	281.68	51	317.71791594471	0	0.98629634366791	89	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-05 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	42	122	58.49	40.89	49.69	0	0.2474	0.3574	0.16	0.5174	F	F	26.49	277.49	51	317.71791594471	0	0.98554270432304	89	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-05 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	42	122	58.51	40.92	49.715	0	0.2474	0.3574	0.16	0.5174	F	F	26.51	271.51	51	317.71791594471	0	0.98562367728498	89	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-05 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	42	122	55.68	41.44	48.56	0	0.0144	0.4444	0.16	0.6044	F	F	23.68	254.68	51	317.71791594471	0	0.96953621904322	89	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-04 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	42	122	54.78	43.05	48.915	0	0.0048	0.4348	0.16	0.5948	F	F	22.78	276.78	51	317.71791594471	0	0.96202065162924	89	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-04 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	42	122	54.12	42.98	48.55	0	0.0048	0.4448	0.16	0.6048	F	F	22.12	272.12	51	317.71791594471	0	0.95560172999182	89	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-04 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	42	122	49.26	43.01	46.135	0	0.0044	0.4444	0.16	0.6044	F	F	17.26	269.26	51	317.71791594471	0	0.8782261522528	89	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-04 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	42	122	43.9	40.88	42.39	0	0.2076	1.9676	0.16	2.1276	F	F	11.9	258.9	51	317.71791594471	0	0.71788793872921	89	4	5	2	5	5	2	137.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-04 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	42	122	44.79	44.29	44.54	0	0.1347	1.9347	0.17	2.1047	F	F	12.79	257.79	51	317.71791594471	0	0.74998332964314	89	4	5	2	5	5	2	137.5	DRY	VH