Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, October 25, 2019

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DAY 25 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/26/2019 12:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.30°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.30°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.30°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.060 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -2 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 147 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.81 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.82 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 10 in SWE DAY: 69 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 348.89 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 3.49 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 105 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 5 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 2 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-26 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	25	105	30.3	30.3	30.3	21	0.0014	0.0114	7.81	7.8214	T	T	-1.7	147.3	68	348.8883476358	7.3266553003518	0.060205954853324	86	1	5	1	1	2	2	7	WET	L
2019-10-25 00:01:18	FORECAST	2020	25	105	47.49	29.91	38.7	21.087513045627	0.3132	0.3232	7.81	8.1332	T	T	15.49	164.49	69	349.88793135371	7.3782663169289	0.56002152290118	86	3	5	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-24 20:02:14	FORECAST	2020	25	105	46.99	29.12	38.055	22.122948483457	0.2828	0.3028	7.81	8.1128	T	T	14.99	183.99	69	350.53934759552	7.7549639282805	0.54041964159774	86	3	5	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-24 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	25	105	48.05	29.12	38.585	21.996386002801	0.2837	0.3037	7.81	8.1137	T	T	16.05	185.05	69	350.45981610519	7.7088493935205	0.58180003850799	86	3	5	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-24 16:02:14	FORECAST	2020	25	105	47.07	29.12	38.095	22.096131109189	0.2691	0.2891	7.81	8.0991	T	T	15.07	184.07	69	350.52249777114	7.7451910674716	0.54356381862284	86	3	5	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-24 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	25	105	47.25	29.12	38.185	22.081454455635	0.2687	0.2887	7.81	8.0987	T	T	15.25	184.25	69	350.51327568755	7.7398429331901	0.55062795645771	86	3	5	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-24 12:01:15	FORECAST	2020	25	105	47.48	29.14	38.31	20.789271445938	0.2803	0.3003	7.81	8.1103	T	T	15.48	184.48	69	349.69998268309	7.2700078646385	0.55963076051774	86	3	5	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-24 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	25	105	47.41	28.91	38.16	20.631447755043	0.13	0.15	7.81	7.96	T	T	15.41	184.41	69	349.600466257	7.2127637547201	0.5568938186318	86	3	5	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-23 20:01:15	FORECAST	2020	25	105	47.65	28.87	38.26	20.949152803883	0.1114	0.1314	7.81	7.9414	T	T	15.65	184.65	69	349.80075591153	7.3280294865045	0.56626551709133	86	3	5	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-23 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	25	105	47.68	29.25	38.465	20.857228497969	0.1081	0.1281	7.81	7.9381	T	T	15.68	184.68	69	349.74282101719	7.2946659334798	0.56743447590167	86	3	5	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-23 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	25	105	47.81	28.8	38.305	20.190125391615	0.1016	0.1116	7.81	7.9216	T	T	15.81	184.81	69	349.32197665032	7.0528545106168	0.57249301958275	86	3	5	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-23 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	25	105	48.48	28.75	38.615	19.907887092019	0.1539	0.1639	7.81	7.9739	T	T	16.48	187.48	69	349.14371083377	6.9507135741671	0.5983578505994	86	3	5	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-22 20:01:14	FORECAST	2020	25	105	48.26	28.96	38.61	19.879579672667	0.2194	0.2294	7.83	8.0594	T	T	16.26	198.26	69	349.12582440332	6.9404746420114	0.58990646683341	86	3	5	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-22 16:01:13	FORECAST	2020	25	105	48.73	29.01	38.87	19.678333259257	0.1922	0.1922	7.83	8.0222	T	T	16.73	198.73	69	348.99862702372	6.8677112895959	0.60790596176891	86	3	5	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-22 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	25	105	49.44	28.12	38.78	19.129060281597	0.181	0.181	7.83	8.011	T	T	17.44	199.44	69	348.651129086	6.6693684655329	0.63465302235939	86	3	5	2	2	2	2	20	WET	L
2019-10-22 09:12:23	FORECAST	2020	25	105	49.79	28.14	38.965	19.063075960855	0.181	0.181	7.82	8.001	T	T	17.79	200.79	69	348.60935143082	6.64556654699	0.64761005286555	86	3	5	2	2	2	2	20	WET	L
2019-10-22 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	25	105	49.69	28.15	38.92	0	0.1577	0.1577	7.83	7.9877	T	T	17.69	200.69	69	336.24163774302	0	0.6439247082576	86	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	WET	H
2019-10-22 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	25	105	49.01	28.19	38.6	0	0.1157	0.1157	8.09	8.2057	T	T	17.01	193.01	69	336.24163774302	0	0.61852299194008	86	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2019-10-22 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	25	105	49.98	28.4	39.19	24.295399250464	0.0719	0.0719	7	7.0719	T	T	17.98	200.98	69	351.90053087121	8.5495638939665	0.65457393663403	86	3	5	2	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-21 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	25	105	51.8	29.24	40.52	24.178919397075	0.0568	0.0568	7.77	7.8268	T	T	19.8	205.8	69	351.82773898916	8.5068145426738	0.71837069252294	86	4	5	2	1	2	2	11	WET	L
2019-10-21 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	25	105	52.01	28.56	40.285	24.147584578499	0.0594	0.0594	8.08	8.1394	T	T	20.01	205.01	69	351.80815321042	8.495317135054	0.7253515819943	86	4	5	2	1	2	2	11	WET	L
2019-10-21 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	25	105	52.47	30.89	41.68	23.330865315206	0.0895	0.0895	7.85	7.9395	T	T	20.47	209.47	69	351.29711392904	8.196065650699	0.74033880672131	86	4	5	2	1	2	2	11	WET	L
2019-10-21 09:57:41	FORECAST	2020	25	105	50.73	29.45	40.09	23.951036754828	0.1232	0.1232	7.93	8.0532	T	T	18.73	197.73	69	351.68526574338	8.423226725951	0.68153681734319	86	3	5	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2019-10-21 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	25	105	50.75	29.46	40.105	0	0.1232	0.1232	8.21	8.3332	T	T	18.75	195.75	69	336.24163774302	0	0.6822436266906	86	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2019-10-21 04:01:14	FORECAST	2020	25	105	50.67	29.34	40.005	0	0.1057	0.1057	8.46	8.5657	T	T	18.67	204.67	69	336.24163774302	0	0.67941243307664	86	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	WET	H
2019-10-21 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	25	105	47.85	28.71	38.28	0	0.1069	0.1069	8.72	8.8269	T	T	15.85	195.85	69	336.24163774302	0	0.57404714041742	86	3	5	1	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2019-10-20 20:01:13	FORECAST	2020	25	105	47.87	28.7	38.285	0	0.1069	0.1069	9.2	9.3069	T	T	15.87	201.87	69	336.24163774302	0	0.57482377138634	86	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	WET	H
2019-10-20 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	25	105	48.97	30.01	39.49	0	0.1149	0.1149	8.85	8.9649	T	T	16.97	203.97	69	336.24163774302	0	0.61701151413119	86	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	WET	H
2019-10-20 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	25	105	48.21	31.56	39.885	0	0.034	0.034	8.71	8.744	T	T	16.21	194.21	69	336.24163774302	0	0.58797970852684	86	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2019-10-20 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	25	105	48.23	31.59	39.91	0	0.034	0.034	8.98	9.014	T	T	16.23	192.23	69	336.24163774302	0	0.58875066910578	86	3	5	1	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2019-10-20 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	25	105	50.89	31.31	41.1	0	0.0492	0.0492	9.03	9.0792	T	T	18.89	203.89	69	336.24163774302	0	0.68717260982377	86	3	5	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2019-10-20 00:01:14	FORECAST	2020	25	105	57.17	38.2	47.685	0	0.0382	0.0382	7.63	7.6682	T	T	25.17	199.17	69	336.24163774302	0	0.86655223494702	86	5	5	2	1	5	2	30	WET	H
2019-10-19 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	25	105	57.2	38.21	47.705	0	0.0382	0.0382	8.16	8.1982	T	T	25.2	196.2	69	336.24163774302	0	0.86719203230812	86	5	5	1	1	5	2	27.5	WET	H
2019-10-19 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	25	105	55.25	35.42	45.335	0	0.0775	0.0775	7.39	7.4675	T	T	23.25	196.25	69	336.24163774302	0	0.82118281427839	86	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2019-10-19 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	25	105	57.18	41.17	49.175	0	0.0007	0.0007	8.51	8.5107	T	T	25.18	193.18	69	336.24163774302	0	0.86676573518301	86	5	5	1	1	5	2	27.5	WET	H
2019-10-19 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	25	105	57.22	41.22	49.22	0.27134997520532	0.0007	0.0007	8.57	8.5707	T	T	25.22	195.22	69	336.42191812354	0.091288079141347	0.86761739196222	86	5	5	1	1	4	2	22	WET	H
2019-10-19 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	25	105	57.33	42.04	49.685	1.0539794562523	0.0007	0.0007	8.9	8.9007	T	T	25.33	199.33	69	336.94118858618	0.35512909073505	0.8699401307569	86	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	WET	H
2019-10-19 00:00:14	FORECAST	2020	25	105	57.73	41.66	49.695	4.0016503798818	0.0072	0.0472	8.13	8.1772	T	T	25.73	186.73	69	338.88771317625	1.356110146169	0.87814865985347	86	5	5	1	1	4	2	22	WET	H
2019-10-18 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	25	105	57.77	41.66	49.715	2.9375790253382	0.0023	0.0423	8.71	8.7523	T	T	25.77	190.77	69	338.18672311619	0.99345022447398	0.87894909607508	86	5	5	1	1	4	2	22	WET	H
2019-10-18 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	25	105	56.27	40.8	48.535	4.6754431712231	0.0002	0.0402	9.11	9.1502	T	T	24.27	194.27	69	339.33061642217	1.586521013338	0.84637220674248	86	4	5	1	1	4	2	20	WET	H
2019-10-18 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	25	105	47.25	39.56	43.405	7.1144166999885	0	0.02	9.24	9.26	T	T	15.25	184.25	69	340.92750043266	2.4255003025634	0.55062795645771	86	3	5	1	1	4	2	18	WET	H
2019-10-18 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	25	105	41.82	40.35	41.085	6.5236117085256	0	0.02	8.24	8.26	T	T	9.82	178.82	69	340.54158653131	2.2215610811355	0.34065350261799	86	2	5	1	1	4	2	16	WET	H
2019-10-18 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	25	105	41.29	41.03	41.16	7.8730294588377	0	0.02	8.36	8.38	T	T	9.29	177.29	69	341.42217793518	2.6880268647842	0.32161524302124	86	2	5	1	1	3	2	12	WET	H