Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 24, 2019

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DAY 24 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/25/2019 12:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.30°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.30°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.30°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.196 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 5 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 162 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.85 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.86 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 14 in SWE DAY: 70 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 350.44 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 4.91 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 104 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 5 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 2 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-25 00:01:18	FORECAST	2020	24	104	37.3	37.3	37.3	21.971026666667	0.0026	0.0126	8.85	8.8626	T	T	5.3	162.3	69	350.44387729812	7.6996117732871	0.19588696375016	91	1	5	1	1	2	2	7	WET	L
2019-10-24 12:01:15	FORECAST	2020	24	104	56.95	37.79	47.37	21.698113333333	0.011	0.021	8.85	8.871	T	T	24.95	181.95	69	350.27228127856	7.6002476567074	0.85408842890143	91	5	5	1	1	2	2	11	WET	L
2019-10-24 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	24	104	56.58	29.57	43.075	21.531872	0.0103	0.0203	8.85	8.8703	T	T	24.58	181.58	69	350.16769765593	7.5397660444622	0.84569212096481	91	4	5	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-10-23 20:01:14	FORECAST	2020	24	104	57.33	39.85	48.59	21.938629333333	0.0075	0.0175	8.85	8.8675	T	T	25.33	182.33	70	351.36213961692	7.7084037428226	0.86238713680061	91	5	5	1	1	2	2	11	WET	L
2019-10-23 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	24	104	57.24	40.98	49.11	21.967056	0.0054	0.0154	8.85	8.8654	T	T	25.24	182.24	70	351.37993992822	7.7187828176798	0.86045129946327	91	5	5	1	1	2	2	11	WET	L
2019-10-23 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	24	104	57.34	41.29	49.315	21.287549333333	0.0027	0.0127	8.85	8.8627	T	T	25.34	182.34	70	350.95409199678	7.4709525471167	0.86260109613209	91	5	5	1	1	2	2	11	WET	L
2019-10-23 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	24	104	57.52	40.58	49.05	21.040128	0.0022	0.0122	8.85	8.8622	T	T	25.52	183.52	70	350.79885001898	7.3808527066522	0.86641365321879	91	5	5	1	1	2	2	11	WET	L
2019-10-22 20:01:13	FORECAST	2020	24	104	57.51	41.95	49.73	20.98931457335	0.0025	0.0325	8.85	8.8825	T	T	25.51	194.51	70	350.76695557814	7.3623579725658	0.86620376660832	91	5	5	1	1	2	2	11	WET	L
2019-10-22 16:01:13	FORECAST	2020	24	104	57.81	42.41	50.11	20.880610666667	0.0019	0.0219	8.85	8.8719	T	T	25.81	194.81	70	350.69871076551	7.3228032407965	0.87240231028371	91	5	5	1	1	2	2	11	WET	L
2019-10-22 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	24	104	57.75	42.53	50.14	20.329461333333	0.0012	0.0212	8.85	8.8712	T	T	25.75	194.75	70	350.35240656567	7.122475702317	0.87117880386716	91	5	5	1	1	2	2	11	WET	L
2019-10-22 09:12:23	FORECAST	2020	24	104	58.11	42.22	50.165	20.289281333333	0.0012	0.0112	8.85	8.8612	T	T	26.11	196.11	70	350.32714126218	7.1078859277708	0.87839891922335	91	5	5	1	1	2	2	11	WET	L
2019-10-22 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	24	104	58.09	40.94	49.515	0	0.0008	0.0208	8.85	8.8708	T	T	26.09	196.09	70	337.2340527369	0	0.87800539627976	91	5	5	1	1	5	2	27.5	WET	H
2019-10-22 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	24	104	58.07	40.82	49.445	0	0.0002	0.2802	8.85	9.1302	T	T	26.07	189.07	70	337.2340527369	0	0.87761098252239	91	5	5	1	2	5	2	55	WET	H
2019-10-22 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	24	104	58.55	43.08	50.815	25.63842	0.0007	0.7507	7.29	8.0407	T	T	26.55	195.55	70	353.6681191875	9.0674917803393	0.88683217061081	91	5	5	1	3	2	2	33	WET	L
2019-10-21 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	24	104	58.98	43.51	51.245	25.645964	0.0024	0.8824	7.93	8.8124	T	T	26.98	198.98	70	353.67279905535	9.0702798723528	0.89466352626453	91	5	5	1	3	2	2	33	WET	L
2019-10-21 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	24	104	59.35	41.78	50.565	25.711236	0.0018	1.1918	7.93	9.1218	T	T	27.35	198.35	70	353.71328634161	9.0944057814647	0.9010828468791	91	5	5	1	4	2	2	44	WET	L
2019-10-21 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	24	104	60.16	43.82	51.99	24.936609333333	0.0022	0.9622	7.93	8.8922	T	T	28.16	202.16	70	353.23236338465	8.8084174496129	0.91413095958154	91	5	5	2	3	2	2	36	WET	L
2019-10-21 09:57:41	FORECAST	2020	24	104	54.66	43.81	49.235	25.180969333333	0.0022	0.9322	8.04	8.9722	T	T	22.66	191.66	70	353.38417520547	8.8985560787343	0.7971183928692	91	4	5	1	3	2	2	30	WET	L
2019-10-21 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	24	104	54.41	42.62	48.515	0	0.0021	1.1121	8.14	9.2521	T	T	22.41	190.41	70	337.2340527369	0	0.79018408197082	91	4	5	1	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-21 04:01:14	FORECAST	2020	24	104	59.66	42.05	50.855	0	0.0009	1.0409	8.46	9.5009	T	T	27.66	198.66	70	337.2340527369	0	0.90623763486636	91	5	5	1	4	5	2	110	WET	H
2019-10-21 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	24	104	58.41	41.09	49.75	0	0.0013	1.4513	8.31	9.7613	T	T	26.41	193.41	70	337.2340527369	0	0.88419523647971	91	5	5	1	4	5	2	110	WET	H
2019-10-20 20:01:13	FORECAST	2020	24	104	58.43	40.59	49.51	0	0.0009	1.3809	8.86	10.2409	T	T	26.43	199.43	70	337.2340527369	0	0.88457458165119	91	5	5	2	4	5	2	120	WET	H
2019-10-20 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	24	104	58.15	42.2	50.175	0	0.0011	1.2611	8.63	9.8911	T	T	26.15	200.15	70	337.2340527369	0	0.87918329477951	91	5	5	2	4	5	2	120	WET	H
2019-10-20 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	24	104	56.42	39.93	48.175	0	0.0009	1.1109	8.64	9.7509	T	T	24.42	191.42	70	337.2340527369	0	0.84196450066549	91	4	5	1	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-20 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	24	104	56.45	39.94	48.195	0	0.0009	1.0809	8.94	10.0209	T	T	24.45	189.45	70	337.2340527369	0	0.84266788333005	91	4	5	1	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-20 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	24	104	56.96	40.62	48.79	0	0.0007	1.1807	8.89	10.0707	T	T	24.96	197.96	70	337.2340527369	0	0.85431102375037	91	5	5	1	4	5	2	110	WET	H
2019-10-20 00:01:14	FORECAST	2020	24	104	55.31	39.18	47.245	0	0.0002	1.1902	7.48	8.6702	T	T	23.31	187.31	70	337.2340527369	0	0.814496752837	91	4	5	1	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-19 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	24	104	55.34	39.19	47.265	0	0.0002	1.1102	8.09	9.2002	T	T	23.34	184.34	70	337.2340527369	0	0.81527592253559	91	4	5	1	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-19 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	24	104	55.58	39.79	47.685	0	0.0002	0.6902	7.74	8.4302	T	T	23.58	185.58	70	337.2340527369	0	0.82143598272996	91	4	5	1	3	5	2	75	WET	H
2019-10-19 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	24	104	53.06	37.3	45.18	0.88871249267836	0.0002	0.8202	8.73	9.5502	T	T	21.06	181.06	70	337.8217981125	0.30022645228164	0.75041228506287	91	4	5	1	3	4	2	60	WET	H
2019-10-19 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	24	104	52.24	34.86	43.55	2.1848473085386	0.0002	0.7302	8.88	9.6102	T	T	20.24	183.24	70	338.67661512093	0.73995669101194	0.7244327491873	91	4	5	1	3	4	2	60	WET	H
2019-10-19 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	24	104	52.13	36.19	44.16	2.9921314562523	0.0002	0.7102	9.23	9.9402	T	T	20.13	187.13	70	339.20760853392	1.0149537556944	0.72084927607523	91	4	5	1	3	4	2	60	WET	H
2019-10-19 00:00:14	FORECAST	2020	24	104	51.68	36.89	44.285	5.9522663798818	0.0003	1.2903	7.92	9.2103	T	T	19.68	173.68	70	341.14535622356	2.0305880345023	0.70595851624386	91	4	5	1	4	4	2	80	WET	H
2019-10-18 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	24	104	51.71	36.89	44.3	4.6134403586715	0.0003	1.0503	8.74	9.7903	T	T	19.71	177.71	70	340.27074547052	1.569818790029	0.70696255332132	91	4	5	1	4	4	2	80	WET	H
2019-10-18 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	24	104	51.55	33.95	42.75	5.9155018378897	0.0003	0.7303	9.46	10.1903	T	T	19.55	182.55	70	341.12137885817	2.017904143579	0.70158944292069	91	4	5	1	3	4	2	60	WET	H
2019-10-18 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	24	104	49.69	32.41	41.05	7.7629273666551	0.0007	0.8307	9.47	10.3007	T	T	17.69	181.69	70	342.32347987147	2.6574323101429	0.63613740818904	91	3	5	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	H
2019-10-18 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	24	104	49.73	32.4	41.065	6.9362357085256	0.0007	0.8307	8.47	9.3007	T	T	17.73	181.73	70	341.78625727762	2.3707100424123	0.6375965195672	91	3	5	1	3	4	2	54	WET	H
2019-10-18 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	24	104	49.41	31.89	40.65	8.0729454588377	0.0007	0.8307	8.59	9.4207	T	T	17.41	181.41	70	342.52465335121	2.7651828448116	0.62586939851674	91	3	5	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	H
2019-10-18 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	24	104	49.69	33.47	41.58	11.422843004258	0.0014	0.9214	8.21	9.1314	T	T	17.69	171.69	70	344.68835746662	3.9373209927368	0.63613740818904	91	3	5	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	H
2019-10-17 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	24	104	49.73	33.47	41.6	10.158083837505	0.0014	0.9214	8.92	9.8414	T	T	17.73	182.73	70	343.87361004914	3.4930969603846	0.6375965195672	91	3	5	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	H
2019-10-17 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	24	104	49.6	31.46	40.53	16.32826778101	0.0014	0.9714	9.11	10.0814	T	T	17.6	177.6	70	347.82374487589	5.6793592469273	0.63284721301773	91	3	5	1	3	2	2	27	WET	L
2019-10-17 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	24	104	40.87	31.25	36.06	17.65587445304	0	0.3	8.75	9.05	T	T	8.87	164.87	70	348.66561201747	6.1559962718726	0.30527806840018	91	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2019-10-17 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	24	104	33.14	31.26	32.2	20.765287475753	0	0.3	9.58	9.88	T	T	1.14	163.14	70	350.62628973387	7.2808557028806	0.10361836249531	91	1	5	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2019-10-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	24	104	30.28	30.11	30.195	25.028362952587	0	1.44	9.92	11.36	T	T	-1.72	150.28	70	353.28937755927	8.8422547688469	0.061797040773005	91	1	5	1	4	2	2	28	WET	L