Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, October 23, 2019

[ Tuesday, October 22, 2019 | Index | Today | Thursday, October 24, 2019 ]

DAY 23 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/23/2019 12:00:07 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.45°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.61°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.03°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.557 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 15 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 181 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.60 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.26 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.86 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 15 in SWE DAY: 71 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 352.26 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 5.28 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 103 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 5 D2: 1 D3: 5 D4: 2 D5: 2 HSdry: 45.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-23 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	23	103	47.45	34.61	41.03	23.368709333333	0.0094	1.5994	7.26	8.8594	T	T	15.45	181.45	70	352.25604004365	8.231769010691	0.5567156302475	88	3	5	1	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-23 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	23	103	47.62	33.13	40.375	23.093790666667	0.0137	1.6037	7.26	8.8637	T	T	15.62	181.62	71	353.0167751338	8.1524955067618	0.56331189362726	88	3	5	1	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-22 20:01:13	FORECAST	2020	23	103	47.66	30.4	39.03	23.122243906683	0.0071	1.6171	7.26	8.8771	T	T	15.66	192.66	71	353.03447250607	8.1629491807527	0.56486147069772	88	3	5	1	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-22 16:01:13	FORECAST	2020	23	103	47.84	33.14	40.49	23.024254666667	0.0039	1.6139	7.26	8.8739	T	T	15.84	192.84	71	352.97351968619	8.1269522078445	0.57182191348725	88	3	5	1	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-22 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	23	103	48.31	34.15	41.23	22.498416	0.0026	1.6126	7.26	8.8726	T	T	16.31	193.31	71	352.64616991858	7.9339802316349	0.58988610366411	88	3	5	1	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-22 09:12:23	FORECAST	2020	23	103	48.75	34.15	41.45	22.462281333333	0.0014	1.6014	7.26	8.8614	T	T	16.75	193.75	71	352.62365898543	7.9207318329202	0.60662689780046	88	3	5	1	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-22 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	23	103	48.88	33.92	41.4	0	0.0004	1.6104	7.26	8.8704	T	T	16.88	193.88	71	338.22270370998	0	0.61153705295119	88	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2019-10-22 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	23	103	43.53	33.95	38.74	0	0.0006	1.8706	7.26	9.1306	T	T	11.53	186.53	71	338.22270370998	0	0.40400562721154	88	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-22 00:00:14	FORECAST	2020	23	103	49.71	34.01	41.86	27.846188	0.001	0.781	7.26	8.041	T	T	17.71	192.71	71	355.95501284871	9.9119902073275	0.64243740095627	88	3	5	1	3	2	2	27	WET	L
2019-10-21 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	23	103	49.82	34.57	42.195	27.908836	0.0025	1.5525	7.26	8.8125	T	T	17.82	195.82	71	355.99350950439	9.9353644738224	0.64646840768313	88	3	5	1	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-21 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	23	103	50.24	34.4	42.32	27.912717333333	0.0021	1.8621	7.26	9.1221	T	T	18.24	195.24	71	355.99589434873	9.9368127707834	0.66170567236422	88	3	5	1	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-21 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	23	103	51.43	35.34	43.385	27.280114666667	0.0021	1.6321	7.26	8.8921	T	T	19.43	198.43	71	355.60688777938	9.700996674878	0.70339754410617	88	4	5	1	5	2	2	50	WET	L
2019-10-21 09:57:41	FORECAST	2020	23	103	51.24	36.16	43.7	27.3514	0.0021	1.7121	7.26	8.9721	T	T	19.24	193.24	71	355.65075454888	9.7275460479683	0.69689973305201	88	3	5	1	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2019-10-21 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	23	103	50.44	35.57	43.005	0	0.0023	1.9923	7.26	9.2523	T	T	18.44	192.44	71	338.22270370998	0	0.66887136555303	88	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2019-10-21 04:01:14	FORECAST	2020	23	103	50.95	35.51	43.23	0	0.0017	2.2417	7.26	9.5017	T	T	18.95	194.95	71	338.22270370998	0	0.68686140782323	88	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2019-10-21 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	23	103	50.7	35.48	43.09	0	0.0016	2.9816	6.78	9.7616	T	T	18.7	190.7	71	338.22270370998	0	0.6780948259442	88	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2019-10-20 20:01:13	FORECAST	2020	23	103	51.15	35.68	43.415	0	0.0007	2.9907	7.25	10.2407	T	T	19.15	197.15	71	338.22270370998	0	0.69379978085929	88	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2019-10-20 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	23	103	50.81	35.91	43.36	0	0.0004	2.6404	7.25	9.8904	T	T	18.81	197.81	71	338.22270370998	0	0.6819647109636	88	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2019-10-20 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	23	103	43.95	34.85	39.4	0	0.0018	2.5018	7.25	9.7518	T	T	11.95	190.95	71	338.22270370998	0	0.42008586663214	88	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-20 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	23	103	43.63	36.21	39.92	0	0.0026	2.5926	7.43	10.0226	T	T	11.63	188.63	71	338.22270370998	0	0.40782065379131	88	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2019-10-20 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	23	103	50.92	35.72	43.32	0	0.0025	2.6025	7.47	10.0725	T	T	18.92	196.92	71	338.22270370998	0	0.68581484491771	88	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2019-10-20 00:01:14	FORECAST	2020	23	103	47.77	34.92	41.345	1.2695991529069	0.0007	3.1607	5.51	8.6707	T	T	15.77	187.77	71	339.05875757131	0.43046871139819	0.56911760511236	88	3	5	1	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2019-10-19 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	23	103	47.79	33.86	40.825	0	0.0016	3.1316	6.07	9.2016	T	T	15.79	184.79	71	338.22270370998	0	0.56989060114229	88	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2019-10-19 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	23	103	47.6	34.37	40.985	0	0.0009	2.2309	6.2	8.4309	T	T	15.6	185.6	71	338.22270370998	0	0.56253673912438	88	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2019-10-19 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	23	103	45.85	33.38	39.615	2.4243538260117	0.0008	3.2908	6.26	9.5508	T	T	13.85	183.85	71	339.81684652233	0.82383627200964	0.49411317558913	88	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2019-10-19 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	23	103	45.9	33.32	39.61	3.513192641872	0.0008	2.9808	6.63	9.6108	T	T	13.9	186.9	71	340.52962824168	1.1963461842781	0.49607537126392	88	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2019-10-19 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	23	103	45.16	32.74	38.95	4.3815394562523	0.001	2.931	7.01	9.941	T	T	13.16	191.16	71	341.0966590158	1.4945284698735	0.46707006991816	88	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2019-10-19 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	23	103	44.12	34.95	39.535	7.3190423798818	0.0414	3.2314	5.98	9.2114	T	T	12.12	178.12	71	343.00560442821	2.5104725553471	0.42663427188702	88	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2019-10-18 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	23	103	44.15	34.97	39.56	5.9822936920049	0.0414	3.0114	6.78	9.7914	T	T	12.15	182.15	71	342.13867994663	2.0467740668356	0.42779202883494	88	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2019-10-18 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	23	103	43.73	33.99	38.86	7.1444085045564	0.0428	3.0828	7.11	10.1928	T	T	11.73	186.73	71	342.89251583062	2.449764206249	0.41164443915191	88	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2019-10-18 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	23	103	41.31	30.38	35.845	8.7490046999885	0.018	3.008	7.29	10.298	T	T	9.31	188.31	71	343.92972818378	3.0090428083457	0.32225794901754	88	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2019-10-18 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	23	103	41.34	30.38	35.86	7.9249370418589	0.018	2.108	7.19	9.298	T	T	9.34	188.34	71	343.3975781827	2.7214041874247	0.32331723312054	88	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2019-10-18 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	23	103	41.27	29.34	35.305	8.9862614588377	0.018	2.108	7.31	9.418	T	T	9.27	188.27	71	344.0827327318	3.0920173997993	0.32084781214084	88	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2019-10-18 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	23	103	41.96	29.72	35.84	12.527328337591	0.0067	2.5767	6.55	9.1267	T	T	9.96	177.96	71	346.35540799058	4.3389079173984	0.34551903473437	88	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2019-10-17 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	23	103	41.99	29.73	35.86	11.013726504171	0.0067	2.5667	7.27	9.8367	T	T	9.99	188.99	71	345.38647119835	3.8039921320195	0.34660768763361	88	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2019-10-17 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	23	103	42.47	29.19	35.83	16.78425159751	0.0059	2.3759	7.7	10.0759	T	T	10.47	184.47	71	349.06060385714	5.8587209979169	0.36419299698863	88	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-17 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	23	103	43.37	30.29	36.83	17.770947786373	0.0009	1.7409	7.31	9.0509	T	T	11.37	180.37	71	349.68346638438	6.2142066228747	0.39792067074924	88	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-17 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	23	103	43.41	30.29	36.85	20.791964809087	0.0009	1.7409	8.14	9.8809	T	T	11.41	186.41	71	351.58083803296	7.3100564119304	0.39943964680208	88	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	23	103	41.12	28.8	34.96	25.028362952587	0.244	2.924	8.44	11.364	T	T	9.12	176.12	71	354.21713407077	8.8654749955484	0.31558289651753	88	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-17 00:00:14	FORECAST	2020	23	103	38.72	28.22	33.47	30.952051200148	0.363	5.363	8.02	13.383	T	T	6.72	165.72	71	357.85618193097	11.076382865417	0.23692745496631	88	1	5	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2019-10-16 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	23	103	38.73	28.69	33.71	25.632865928929	0.2702	5.3602	8.26	13.6202	T	T	6.73	175.73	71	354.59100679327	9.0891837367359	0.237231308869	88	1	5	1	5	2	2	35	WET	L
2019-10-16 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	23	103	40.53	29.37	34.95	21.529215904297	0.0904	3.9604	7.74	11.7004	T	T	8.53	171.53	71	352.04166806174	7.5791810790102	0.29524266029732	88	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2019-10-16 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	23	103	33.76	28.3	31.03	25.576957871618	0.0008	3.3708	7.89	11.2608	T	T	1.76	172.76	71	354.55645288972	9.0684754586705	0.11419470472043	88	1	5	1	5	2	2	35	WET	L
2019-10-16 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	23	103	29.54	28.6	29.07	26.757654139597	0.0006	3.3706	8.33	11.7006	T	T	-2.46	170.54	71	355.28513932723	9.5065968790565	0.052547236157953	88	1	5	1	5	2	2	35	WET	L
2019-10-16 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	23	103	30.14	29.77	29.955	25.703815977453	0.0005	3.0505	7.88	10.9305	T	T	-1.86	170.14	71	354.63485031614	9.1154689317178	0.05921174580663	88	1	5	1	5	2	2	35	WET	L