MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, October 19, 2019

[ Friday, October 18, 2019 | Index | Today | Sunday, October 20, 2019 ]

DAY 19 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/20/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.18°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.98°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.08°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.061
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 183

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.85 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.11 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.46 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.57 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 28 in
SWE DAY: 75
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 342.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 9.58 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 99

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 75.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-20 04:00:11OBSERVATION2020199932.1827.9800630.0800301.854.113.467.57TT0.18183.1875342.13995210598 00.06085649444509890 14155275WETL
2019-10-20 00:01:14FORECAST2020199928.7228.7228.7220.00312.26313.465.7231TT-3.28179.7274342.467115538020.684934231076030.0287551691302669014154260WETL
2019-10-19 12:00:11FORECAST2020199928.9926.2827.6352.08370067608630.58782.84783.466.3078TT-3.01179.9974342.521414724830.713712103436160.0306077045598739014154260WETL
2019-10-19 08:00:11FORECAST2020199932.2126.1229.1653.24199252686350.95463.21463.466.6746TT0.21183.2174343.27165001741.11288412404050.0612244108455479014154260WETL
2019-10-19 04:00:12FORECAST2020199932.5826.9429.764.10413841695751.33323.59323.467.0532TT0.58183.5874343.828637969651.41112032194140.0659057202868079014154260WETL
2019-10-19 00:00:13FORECAST2020199932.0426.1929.1157.60513170273621.74432.73433.466.1943TT0.039999999999999181.0475347.033065408352.63923216763480.0591622862152659014153245WETL
2019-10-18 20:00:11FORECAST2020199931.3526.8429.0956.23989087414931.77623.50623.466.9662TT-0.65185.3575346.161621117442.16001074059150.0513448895168779014154260WETL
2019-10-18 16:00:11FORECAST2020199931.2727.3829.3256.9862639272141.93623.66623.467.1262TT-0.73185.2775346.638411513742.42170743014520.0504941497893659014154260WETL
2019-10-18 12:00:12FORECAST2020199931.9727.2429.6058.98869963849942.16063.89063.467.3506TT-0.030000000000001185.9775347.91313038793.12728662934690.0583291217991059014153245WETL
2019-10-18 08:00:11FORECAST2020199934.2227.5630.898.03312091135332.0424.0223.467.482TT2.22189.2275347.305632814152.78994814159010.0900390710388139014153245WETL
2019-10-18 04:00:12FORECAST2020199933.5527.2930.428.87236567737532.0424.1423.467.602TT1.55188.5575347.839251287793.08615703436970.0794896851279439014153245WETL
2019-10-18 00:00:13FORECAST2020199933.1427.6330.38512.0960099118941.94313.38313.466.8431TT1.14184.1475349.878403053034.2321326312870.0735105688735779014153245WETL
2019-10-17 20:00:11FORECAST2020199932.727.33011.3670642545932.01034.23033.467.6903TT0.7190.775349.418760229283.97186549928630.0674819314753679014153245WETL
2019-10-17 16:00:11FORECAST2020199930.5727.0228.79515.7593465493352.21794.55793.468.0179TT-1.43188.5775352.17550930755.55005589736550.0435189807044579014152230WETL
2019-10-17 12:00:11FORECAST2020199930.8126.7528.7817.5523703192071.92424.36423.467.8242TT-1.19183.8175353.292063053916.2011131215590.0458174936197869014152230WETL
2019-10-17 08:00:11FORECAST2020199932.226.4629.3320.0169838682092.17325.08323.468.5432TT0.2190.275354.818554709917.10239728576960.0611015800692069014152230WETL
2019-10-17 04:00:12FORECAST2020199930.8526.228.52523.0170555711622.49985.39983.468.8598TT-1.15180.8575356.66383996038.20935142459040.046209867408119014152230WETL
2019-10-17 00:00:13FORECAST2020199931.3226.428.8623.2083273866072.59555.56552.448.0055TT-0.68174.3275356.781011358128.28029051692420.0510245400133079014152230WETL
2019-10-16 20:00:11FORECAST2020199932.927.2630.0820.7227929683412.30965.14963.118.2596TT0.9180.975355.253949819137.36185405328720.0701732569620979014152230WETL
2019-10-16 16:00:12FORECAST2020199932.2328.0130.1219.5438831528412.07324.69323.117.8032TT0.23176.2375354.526274037396.92882007439890.0614706491920489014152230WETL
2019-10-16 12:00:11FORECAST2020199932.2326.7629.49520.0948187088352.09334.80333.117.9133TT0.23181.2375354.866607281857.13098013914810.0614706491920489014152230WETL
2019-10-16 08:00:12FORECAST2020199932.927.1130.00521.0986322018872.20345.02343.338.3534TT0.9182.975355.485476890047.50025733001550.0701732569620979014152230WETL
2019-10-16 04:00:12FORECAST2020199932.7626.6629.7120.4170694608061.95384.74383.217.9538TT0.76179.7675355.065452833167.24939601362730.0682808471519139014152230WETL
2019-10-16 00:00:13FORECAST2020199932.5527.530.02521.0322709991741.59064.93063.458.3806TT0.55170.5575355.444612671117.47580741889530.0655161454101069014152230WETL
2019-10-15 20:00:12FORECAST2020199932.5827.4930.03519.2947722402131.54264.55263.257.8026TT0.58189.5875354.372232598816.83753151624990.0659057202868079014152230WETL
2019-10-15 16:00:11FORECAST2020199933.3828.2530.81519.0439070735871.28194.32193.297.6119TT1.38186.3875354.217007859436.7456757815590.076967487973559014152230WETL
2019-10-15 12:00:12FORECAST2020199931.8926.9129.420.1373923245471.61754.43753.578.0075TT-0.11182.8975354.892886759017.14661729385710.0573882116193269014152230WETL
2019-10-15 08:00:11FORECAST2020199931.9126.9429.42520.6166395479291.61754.42753.798.2175TT-0.09180.9175355.188516419377.32279361458170.057622315966439014152230WETL
2019-10-15 04:00:11FORECAST2020199932.3427.1829.7621.4064310130211.67184.51183.688.1918TT0.34184.3475355.674924675527.6137307381280.0628387645900839014152230WETL
2019-10-15 00:00:13FORECAST2020199930.6626.6128.63523.1892516505881.7624.5623.878.432TT-1.34159.6675356.769328288768.27321373489910.0443698059515129014152230WETL
2019-10-14 20:00:11FORECAST2020199940.636.1638.381.64116420082151.44473.98473.687.6647TT8.6234.675343.203883392080.563253927005990.243900834617619014254270WETH
2019-10-14 16:00:12FORECAST2020199941.2235.6938.4552.5266420650281.7624.4423.658.092TT9.22236.2275343.776080227310.868599105252740.264017228346119024254280WETH
2019-10-14 12:00:12FORECAST2020199942.3834.0838.230.837662347097771.22934.35933.337.6893TT10.38232.3875342.683544637740.287053102313030.303793714049149024254280WETH
2019-10-14 08:00:11FORECAST2020199942.4134.138.2550.873281708110221.22934.45933.367.8193TT10.41234.4175342.706633836780.299279434577690.304856953562259024254280WETH
2019-10-14 04:00:12FORECAST2020199940.5734.5637.5650.385834484972261.21254.39253.397.7825TT8.57229.5775342.390479182950.132106054194960.24294885365049014254270WETH
2019-10-14 00:00:13FORECAST2020199944.7435.1939.96500.66924.21923.627.8392TT12.74219.7475342.1399521059800.3918471732033990242552100WETH
2019-10-13 20:00:11FORECAST2020199944.7735.2139.9900.66924.09924.078.1692TT12.77239.7775342.1399521059800.393014918241890242552100WETH
2019-10-13 16:00:11FORECAST2020199944.2634.8839.570.342561948214121.03384.28384.128.4038TT12.26243.2675342.362394014890.117280328688990.373302308073439024254280WETH
2019-10-13 12:00:11FORECAST2020199944.6536.4840.56500.59793.34794.157.4979TT12.65248.6575342.1399521059800.3883498172579990242552100WETH
2019-10-13 08:00:12FORECAST2020199944.6636.540.5800.59793.34794.157.4979TT12.66249.6675342.1399521059800.3887379714784390242552100WETH
2019-10-13 04:00:12FORECAST2020199942.4634.638.530.12765239192121.45314.03314.078.1031TT10.46246.4675342.22286555340.043685567358020.306632680068799024254280WETH
2019-10-13 00:00:14FORECAST2020199943.7836.9340.35500.61153.00153.776.7715TT11.78230.7875342.1399521059800.3550462914567390242552100WETH
2019-10-12 20:00:12FORECAST2020199942.2536.9539.600.59812.98813.846.8281TT10.25245.2575342.1399521059800.2992055722490990242552100WETH
2019-10-12 16:00:12FORECAST2020199944.6135.2939.9500.45252.51253.726.2325TT12.61250.6175342.1399521059800.3867983184568590242552100WETH
2019-10-12 12:00:12FORECAST2020199939.6636.8838.2700.13552.05553.875.9255TT7.66242.6675342.1399521059800.21504687126229014255287.5WETH
2019-10-12 08:00:12FORECAST2020199939.6637.9138.78500.11812.03813.845.8781TT7.66242.6675342.1399521059800.21504687126229014255287.5WETH
2019-10-12 04:00:12FORECAST2020199939.0737.4238.24500.01191.85193.675.5219TF7.07245.0775342.1399521059800.197994968380389014255287.5WETM