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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, September 19, 2019

[ Wednesday, September 18, 2019 | Index | Today | Friday, September 20, 2019 ]

DAY 354 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/20/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.47°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.83°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.237
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 15
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 421

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.06 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.81 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.05 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 261
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 471.75 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 69

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 5
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 100.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-09-20 04:00:11OBSERVATION20193546947.1999236.4699441.8349300.0600000000000021.813.245.05TF15.19992421.19992261471.75403460025 00.2368056232631391 143552100WETMH
2019-09-20 00:00:13FORECAST20193546942.3342.3342.3300.00221.75223.244.9922TF10.33416.33262472.2324796474600.1190398371947291143552100WETMH
2019-09-19 12:00:11FORECAST20193546952.7243.8348.27500.0151.7653.245.005TF20.72426.72262472.2324796474600.4239051128811691243552112.5WETMH
2019-09-19 08:00:11FORECAST20193546952.1638.4845.3200.01511.76513.245.0051TF20.16426.16262472.2324796474600.4031740813033491243552112.5WETMH
2019-09-19 04:00:11FORECAST20193546953.6939.146.39500.01771.76773.245.0077TF21.69427.69262472.2324796474600.460284450156491243552112.5WETMH
2019-09-19 00:00:13FORECAST20193546954.1237.9746.04500.01561.42563.244.6656TF22.12424.12261471.7540346002500.476537088653739124345290WETMH
2019-09-18 20:00:11FORECAST20193546953.8937.0445.46500.01161.61163.244.8516TF21.89433.89261471.7540346002500.4678372274252991243552112.5WETMH
2019-09-18 16:00:11FORECAST20193546953.9737.8645.91500.00831.60833.244.8483TF21.97433.97261471.7540346002500.4708617371751191243552112.5WETMH
2019-09-18 12:00:16FORECAST2019354695438.146.0500.00491.60493.244.8449TF22434261471.7540346002500.4719963712269991243552112.5WETMH
2019-09-18 08:00:11FORECAST20193546953.7237.7245.7200.00441.65443.244.8944TF21.72432.72261471.7540346002500.4614165209543291243552112.5WETMH
2019-09-18 04:00:12FORECAST20193546953.2937.6845.48500.00571.71573.244.9557TF21.29428.29261471.7540346002500.4452244933775791243552112.5WETMH
2019-09-18 00:00:12FORECAST20193546952.6838.3945.53500.01610.42613.243.6661TF20.68428.68261471.7540346002500.422416595984789124325245DRYM
2019-09-17 20:00:11FORECAST20193546952.2138.3645.28500.01710.96713.244.2071TF20.21433.21261471.7540346002500.405014955037539124335267.5WETMH
2019-09-17 16:00:11FORECAST20193546952.5738.3945.4800.010.863.244.1TF20.57434.57261471.7540346002500.418328944653339124335267.5WETMH
2019-09-17 12:00:15FORECAST20193546952.5138.4845.49500.00920.95923.244.1992TF20.51433.51261471.7540346002500.41610299856689124335267.5WETMH
2019-09-17 08:00:15FORECAST20193546953.0336.744.86500.00731.36733.244.6073TF21.03430.03261471.7540346002500.435476364148559124345290WETMH
2019-09-17 04:00:12FORECAST20193546952.337.945.100.01291.44293.244.6829TF20.3429.3261471.7540346002500.408333802914299124345290WETMH
2019-09-17 00:00:15FORECAST20193546947.4737.842.63500.01131.51133.194.7013TF15.47422.47261471.7540346002500.2448016450212391143552100WETMH
2019-09-16 20:00:11FORECAST20193546952.1637.8344.99500.00651.73653.325.0565TF20.16428.16261471.7540346002500.4031740813033491243552112.5WETMH
2019-09-16 16:00:11FORECAST20193546952.4338.0845.25500.00551.75553.325.0755TF20.43438.43261471.7540346002500.4131392629005291243552112.5WETMH
2019-09-16 12:00:12FORECAST20193546947.2438.1542.69500.00571.63573.324.9557TF15.24431.24261471.7540346002500.2379831018054191143552100WETMH
2019-09-16 08:00:14FORECAST20193546947.2137.7642.48500.0071.4873.34.787TF15.21430.21261471.7540346002500.23710145419999114345280WETMH
2019-09-16 04:00:15FORECAST20193546951.737.544.600.00571.61573.344.9557TF19.7426.7261471.7540346002500.38634354863291243552112.5WETMH
2019-09-16 00:00:15FORECAST20193546954.7937.5746.1800.00551.78552.314.0955TF22.79430.79261471.7540346002500.5019288865154591343552125WETMH
2019-09-15 20:00:11FORECAST20193546953.9437.2545.59500.011.712.674.38TF21.94435.94261471.7540346002500.4697273396079891243552112.5WETMH
2019-09-15 16:00:11FORECAST20193546955.8237.8246.8200.00371.87372.684.5537TF23.82441.82261471.7540346002500.5409128973867491343552125WETMH
2019-09-15 12:00:11FORECAST20193546952.6237.4845.0500.00381.41382.614.0238TF20.62427.62261471.7540346002500.420185902748959124345290WETMH
2019-09-15 08:00:11FORECAST20193546952.6437.4945.06500.00381.61382.954.5638TF20.64430.64261471.7540346002500.4209291861035891243552112.5WETMH
2019-09-15 04:00:11FORECAST20193546949.4637.6443.5500.0021.4823.144.622TF17.46436.46261471.7540346002500.307913416354429124345290WETMH
2019-09-15 00:00:13FORECAST20193546958.1739.1148.6400.00991.29993.234.5299TF26.17435.17261471.7540346002500.6278241220774991343452100WETMH
2019-09-14 20:00:11FORECAST20193546958.239.1248.6600.00991.12993.284.4099TF26.2452.2261471.7540346002500.6289022807408691343452100WETMH
2019-09-14 16:00:13FORECAST20193546958.6738.848.73500.00661.19663.44.5966TF26.67450.67261471.7540346002500.6456565978882991343452100WETMH
2019-09-14 12:00:13FORECAST20193546948.2837.7543.01500.02441.30443.564.8644TF16.28432.28261471.7540346002500.269627703173529124345290WETMH
2019-09-14 08:00:13FORECAST20193546948.3137.7643.03500.02441.19443.44.5944TF16.31438.31261471.7540346002500.270570802679559124345290WETMH
2019-09-14 04:00:12FORECAST2019354695037.6143.80500.02621.32623.444.7662TF18434261471.7540346002500.326194616326789124345290WETMH
2019-09-14 00:00:14FORECAST20193546952.1337.4644.79500.02151.34153.344.6815TF20.13441.13261471.7540346002500.402070583147859124345290WETMH
2019-09-13 20:00:11FORECAST20193546952.1637.4744.81500.02151.32153.34.6215TF20.16448.16261471.7540346002500.403174081303349124345290WETMH
2019-09-13 16:00:11FORECAST20193546953.9639.246.5800.10112.06113.195.2511TF21.96444.96261471.7540346002500.4704835779236191243552112.5WETMH
2019-09-13 12:00:11FORECAST20193546955.839.247.500.03421.88423.195.0742TF23.8439.8261471.7540346002500.5401584469661791343552125WETMH
2019-09-13 08:00:11FORECAST20193546955.8339.2347.5300.03421.88423.25.0842TF23.83439.83261471.7540346002500.5412900675214991343552125WETMH
2019-09-13 04:00:12FORECAST20193546954.1335.8444.98500.15661.64663.24.8466TF22.13452.13261471.7540346002500.4769156275057991243552112.5WETMH
2019-09-13 00:00:13FORECAST20193546961.7941.9651.87500.00090.94093.264.2009TF29.79451.79261471.7540346002500.74863197128159144335282.5WETMH
2019-09-12 20:00:11FORECAST20193546961.8341.9451.88500.00070.94073.434.3707TF29.83465.83261471.7540346002500.749842289231839144335282.5WETMH
2019-09-12 16:00:11FORECAST20193546961.4143.1652.28500.0050.5753.353.925TF29.41467.41261471.7540346002500.736981542187449144335282.5DRYVH
2019-09-12 12:00:12FORECAST20193546953.2943.0948.1900.00170.12173.143.2617FF21.29456.29261471.7540346002500.445224493377579124325245DRYM
2019-09-12 08:00:11FORECAST20193546945.6143.0944.3500.00170.12173.33.4217FF13.61447.61261471.7540346002500.192756484860269114325240DRYM
2019-09-12 04:00:12FORECAST20193546943.8641.0142.43500.00150.15153.243.3915FF11.86446.86261471.7540346002500.150516177691559114325240DRYM