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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, September 18, 2019

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DAY 353 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/16/2019 12:00:10 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.55°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.39°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.47°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.263
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 438

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.46 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.94 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.15 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.09 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 260
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 471.27 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 68

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 5
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 112.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-09-16 00:00:15FORECAST20193536848.5538.3943.4700.45681.93682.154.0868TF16.55437.55260471.2737680031200.2629062683703591243552112.5WETMH
2019-09-15 20:00:11FORECAST20193536847.6537.9342.7900.41271.93272.444.3727TF15.65443.65260471.2737680031200.2372080683681891143552100WETMH
2019-09-15 16:00:11FORECAST20193536848.338.3943.34500.61012.11012.444.5501TF16.3448.3260471.2737680031200.2556280662888891243552112.5WETMH
2019-09-15 12:00:11FORECAST20193536841.9637.0739.51500.44841.57842.444.0184TF9.96436.96260471.2737680031200.1098976298122791143552100WETM
2019-09-15 08:00:11FORECAST20193536842.1337.8239.97500.53531.76532.794.5553TF10.13440.13260471.2737680031200.1127998808811591143552100WETM
2019-09-15 04:00:11FORECAST20193536848.6236.7542.68500.42981.63982.984.6198TF16.62448.62260471.2737680031200.2649629611644691243552112.5WETMH
2019-09-15 00:00:13FORECAST20193536850.537.2143.85500.2931.52334.523TF18.5438.5260471.2737680031200.3230659842178891243552112.5WETMH
2019-09-14 20:00:11FORECAST20193536850.5237.3343.92500.2281.2683.134.398TF18.52455.52260471.2737680031200.323711628230949124345290WETMH
2019-09-14 16:00:13FORECAST20193536850.1737.5843.87500.16391.34393.254.5939TF18.17454.17260471.2737680031200.312490911747699124345290WETMH
2019-09-14 12:00:13FORECAST20193536849.0637.743.3800.10281.53283.314.8428TF17.06446.06260471.2737680031200.2780749501009391243552112.5WETMH
2019-09-14 08:00:13FORECAST20193536849.0837.7143.39500.10281.38283.194.5728TF17.08452.08260471.2737680031200.278678379198299124345290WETMH
2019-09-14 04:00:12FORECAST20193536848.638.1543.37500.16961.48963.254.7396TF16.6445.6260471.2737680031200.264374502532949124345290WETMH
2019-09-14 00:00:14FORECAST20193536848.8438.1443.4900.2761.4663.194.656TF16.84450.84260471.2737680031200.271479572784019124345290WETMH
2019-09-13 20:00:11FORECAST20193536848.8738.1643.51500.2761.4063.194.596TF16.87457.87260471.2737680031200.272374340322339124345290WETMH
2019-09-13 16:00:11FORECAST20193536846.2338.3942.3100.99022.08023.075.1502TF14.23453.23260471.2737680031200.1996218761766691143552100WETMH
2019-09-13 12:00:11FORECAST20193536841.1638.2339.69500.85081.99083.055.0408TF9.16446.16260471.2737680031200.09695654263315491143552100WETM
2019-09-13 08:00:11FORECAST20193536841.1738.2439.70500.85082.06082.995.0508TF9.17446.17260471.2737680031200.09711110694187291143552100WETM
2019-09-13 04:00:12FORECAST20193536846.9635.8141.38500.73261.66263.034.6926TF14.96459.96260471.2737680031200.2184786755243291143552100WETMH
2019-09-13 00:00:13FORECAST20193536851.737.1744.43500.60971.04973.154.1997TF19.7451.7260471.2737680031200.362685087864099124345290WETMH
2019-09-12 20:00:11FORECAST20193536851.7137.1944.4500.60971.05973.314.3697TF19.71465.71260471.2737680031200.363022236433029124345290WETMH
2019-09-12 16:00:11FORECAST20193536851.5837.0644.3200.32620.69623.223.9162TF19.58467.58260471.2737680031200.358647670674849124335267.5DRYH
2019-09-12 12:00:12FORECAST20193536853.7236.7445.2300.09370.33372.933.2637FF21.72464.72260471.2737680031200.432605531107369124325245DRYM
2019-09-12 08:00:11FORECAST20193536853.7336.7245.22500.09370.33373.093.4237FF21.73463.73260471.2737680031200.432958974994989124325245DRYM
2019-09-12 04:00:12FORECAST20193536850.4438.6544.54500.11560.34563.043.3856FF18.44465.44260471.2737680031200.321132252235199124325245DRYM
2019-09-12 00:00:12FORECAST20193536852.3940.2746.3300.16250.442533.4425FF20.39448.39260471.2737680031200.386184631259389124325245DRYM
2019-09-11 20:00:11FORECAST20193536852.440.346.3500.15680.43682.973.4068FF20.4459.4260471.2737680031200.386528531011279124325245DRYM
2019-09-11 16:00:11FORECAST20193536851.0738.644.83500.0510.4112.933.341FF19.07459.07260471.2737680031200.34166895568629124325245DRYM
2019-09-11 12:00:11FORECAST20193536842.4239.4640.9400.13160.58162.873.4516TF10.42453.42260471.2737680031200.117875893298729114335260DRYH
2019-09-11 08:00:11FORECAST20193536841.3939.4140.400.09940.54942.823.3694FF9.39443.39260471.2737680031200.100557251409659114335260DRYH
2019-09-11 04:00:11FORECAST20193536842.9440.4141.67500.02410.55412.773.3241FF10.94449.94260471.2737680031200.127376781777369114335260DRYH