Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 17, 2019

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DAY 352 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/18/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.72°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.43°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.58°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.116 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 10 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 458 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 1.41 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.51 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.14 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.65 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 259 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 470.79 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 67 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 4 D2: 3 D3: 5 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 100.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-09-18 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2019	352	67	41.72	37.43006	39.57503	0	1.41	2.51	2.14	4.65	T	F	9.72	457.72	259	470.791672921	0	0.11570155111796	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-09-18 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	352	67	39.29	39.29	39.29	0	0.0384	1.1384	2.14	3.2784	T	F	7.29	455.29	260	471.27376800312	0	0.07879797166761	90	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-17 12:00:15	FORECAST	2019	352	67	45.02	38.99	42.005	0	0.5525	1.6525	2.14	3.7925	T	F	13.02	461.02	260	471.27376800312	0	0.18324290642539	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-17 08:00:15	FORECAST	2019	352	67	41.23	36.99	39.11	0	0.8027	1.9027	2.14	4.0427	T	F	9.23	457.23	260	471.27376800312	0	0.10741688788195	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-09-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	352	67	40.66	36.1	38.38	0	0.9032	2.0032	2.14	4.1432	T	F	8.66	456.66	260	471.27376800312	0	0.098326429935677	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-09-17 00:00:15	FORECAST	2019	352	67	44.98	36.12	40.55	0	0.9971	2.0471	2.14	4.1871	T	F	12.98	453.98	259	470.791672921	0	0.18230021899319	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-09-16 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	41.55	35.94	38.745	0	1.1844	2.3644	2.14	4.5044	T	F	9.55	460.55	259	470.791672921	0	0.11277750134319	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-09-16 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	45.72	35.95	40.835	0	1.0928	2.2728	2.14	4.4128	T	F	13.72	464.72	259	470.791672921	0	0.20022766506816	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-09-16 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	352	67	45.46	35.98	40.72	0	1.0549	2.2349	2.14	4.3749	T	F	13.46	464.46	259	470.791672921	0	0.19381172409892	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-09-16 08:00:14	FORECAST	2019	352	67	45.39	35.75	40.57	0	1.0238	2.1838	2.14	4.3238	T	F	13.39	464.39	259	470.791672921	0	0.19210595821707	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-09-16 04:00:15	FORECAST	2019	352	67	40.58	36.65	38.615	0	1.1333	2.3333	2.14	4.4733	T	F	8.58	454.58	259	470.791672921	0	0.097096917909617	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-09-16 00:00:15	FORECAST	2019	352	67	41.01	36.41	38.71	0	1.3163	1.4863	2.14	3.6263	T	F	9.01	455.01	259	470.791672921	0	0.10383924769348	90	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	41.04	36.17	38.605	0	1.2929	1.8229	2.14	3.9629	T	F	9.04	462.04	259	470.791672921	0	0.10432197006136	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	45.04	35.62	40.33	0	1.2649	1.8049	2.14	3.9449	T	F	13.04	466.04	259	470.791672921	0	0.18371538546314	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-15 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	40.42	37.3	38.86	0	0.9572	1.4272	2.14	3.5672	T	F	8.42	461.42	259	470.791672921	0	0.094671705364096	90	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-15 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	45.35	35.89	40.62	0	1.0688	1.8788	2.14	4.0188	T	F	13.35	464.35	259	470.791672921	0	0.19113536314824	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-09-15 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	45.59	36.1	40.845	0	1.0483	2.0483	2.14	4.1883	T	F	13.59	465.59	259	470.791672921	0	0.19700391898904	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-09-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	352	67	40.56	35.75	38.155	0	1.0016	2.1216	2.11	4.2316	T	F	8.56	453.56	259	470.791672921	0	0.096791304756886	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-09-14 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	45.31	35.71	40.51	0	0.8925	2.0125	2.16	4.1725	T	F	13.31	471.31	259	470.791672921	0	0.19016777417174	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-09-14 16:00:13	FORECAST	2019	352	67	45.78	35.8	40.79	0	1.0346	2.2746	2.16	4.4346	T	F	13.78	469.78	259	470.791672921	0	0.20172615603289	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-09-14 12:00:13	FORECAST	2019	352	67	40.75	36.05	38.4	0	1.1812	2.5812	2.16	4.7412	T	F	8.75	462.75	259	470.791672921	0	0.099723171208233	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-09-14 08:00:13	FORECAST	2019	352	67	40.73	37.5	39.115	0	1.0738	2.3138	2.16	4.4738	T	F	8.73	468.73	259	470.791672921	0	0.099411542484503	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-09-14 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	352	67	41.83	36.69	39.26	0	1.1322	2.4122	2.16	4.5722	T	F	9.83	462.83	259	470.791672921	0	0.11762195622393	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-09-14 00:00:14	FORECAST	2019	352	67	44.4	35.44	39.92	0	1.0358	2.3258	2.05	4.3758	T	F	12.4	468.4	259	470.791672921	0	0.16897259454514	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-09-13 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	44.42	35.45	39.935	0	1.0214	2.2614	2.06	4.3214	T	F	12.42	475.42	259	470.791672921	0	0.16942150911907	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-09-13 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	40.8	35.73	38.265	0	0.9735	2.1135	2.05	4.1635	T	F	8.8	472.8	259	470.791672921	0	0.10050535389703	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-09-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	45.47	35.34	40.405	0	1.0011	2.1411	2.05	4.1911	T	F	13.47	471.47	259	470.791672921	0	0.19405615477698	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-09-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	45.46	35.35	40.405	0	1.0011	2.1311	2.07	4.2011	T	F	13.46	471.46	259	470.791672921	0	0.19381172409892	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2019-09-13 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	352	67	45.1	35.92	40.51	0	0.7611	1.8411	2.12	3.9611	T	F	13.1	479.1	259	470.791672921	0	0.18513736050438	90	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-09-13 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	352	67	47.56	36.83	42.195	0	0.3333	1.4133	2.18	3.5933	T	F	15.56	465.56	259	470.791672921	0	0.24915098355272	90	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-12 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	47.58	36.83	42.205	0	0.3333	1.5033	2.26	3.7633	T	F	15.58	479.58	259	470.791672921	0	0.24971548777194	90	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2019-09-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	49.2	36.32	42.76	0	0.2398	1.3298	2.26	3.5898	T	F	17.2	482.2	259	470.791672921	0	0.2975948617193	90	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-12 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	352	67	49.27	35.3	42.285	0	0.0257	0.9957	2.17	3.1657	F	F	17.27	477.27	259	470.791672921	0	0.2997546511242	90	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	49.31	35.28	42.295	0	0.0257	1.1057	2.22	3.3257	T	F	17.31	476.31	259	470.791672921	0	0.30099199188621	90	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-12 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	352	67	49.95	35.19	42.57	0	0.0324	1.1024	2.17	3.2724	T	F	17.95	480.95	259	470.791672921	0	0.32109364519833	90	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-12 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	352	67	46.88	35.1	40.99	0	0.1362	1.1362	2.14	3.2762	T	F	14.88	461.88	259	470.791672921	0	0.23036752016211	90	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-11 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	46.9	35.08	40.99	0	0.1362	1.1462	2.1	3.2462	T	F	14.9	472.9	259	470.791672921	0	0.2309084508834	90	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	48.15	35.65	41.9	0	0.1623	1.2423	2.05	3.2923	T	F	16.15	474.15	259	470.791672921	0	0.2660847777806	90	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	47.88	35.52	41.7	0	0.3317	1.2017	2.12	3.3217	T	F	15.88	476.88	259	470.791672921	0	0.25826379626251	90	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	47.89	35.52	41.705	0	0.3317	1.2017	2.07	3.2717	T	F	15.89	467.89	259	470.791672921	0	0.258551325785	90	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-11 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	46.64	36.06	41.35	0	0.3851	1.1751	2.12	3.2951	T	F	14.64	472.64	259	470.791672921	0	0.22393179587083	90	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	352	67	47.65	35.09	41.37	0	0.0718	0.9218	1.7	2.6218	F	F	15.65	464.65	259	470.791672921	0	0.25169658139233	90	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-09-10 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	47.67	35.08	41.375	0	0.0666	0.9666	1.9	2.8666	F	F	15.67	473.67	259	470.791672921	0	0.25226412663683	90	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-09-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	47.08	34.97	41.025	0	0.0207	1.0507	1.96	3.0107	F	F	15.08	465.08	259	470.791672921	0	0.23580855857953	90	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	42.47	38.84	40.655	0	0.0682	1.0182	1.91	2.9282	F	F	10.47	475.47	259	470.791672921	0	0.12924139849059	90	1	4	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	352	67	40.65	38.86	39.755	0	0.0224	0.9724	1.93	2.9024	F	F	8.65	467.65	259	470.791672921	0	0.098172122381109	90	1	4	3	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-09-10 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	352	67	38.88	38.32	38.6	0	0.0064	0.9664	1.94	2.9064	F	F	6.88	468.88	259	470.791672921	0	0.073564839736649	90	1	4	3	3	5	2	60	DRY	H