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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 17, 2019

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DAY 352 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/16/2019 12:00:10 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.01°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.41°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.71°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.104
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 455

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.32 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.49 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.14 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.63 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 259
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 470.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 67

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 4
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 80.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-09-16 00:00:15FORECAST20193526741.0136.4138.7101.31631.48632.143.6263TF9.01455.01259470.79167292100.103839247693489014345280DRYVH
2019-09-15 20:00:11FORECAST20193526741.0436.1738.60501.29291.82292.143.9629TF9.04462.04259470.79167292100.1043219700613690143552100DRYVH
2019-09-15 16:00:11FORECAST20193526745.0435.6240.3301.26491.80492.143.9449TF13.04466.04259470.79167292100.1837153854631490143552100DRYVH
2019-09-15 12:00:11FORECAST20193526740.4237.338.8600.95721.42722.143.5672TF8.42461.42259470.79167292100.0946717053640969014345280DRYVH
2019-09-15 08:00:11FORECAST20193526745.3535.8940.6201.06881.87882.144.0188TF13.35464.35259470.79167292100.1911353631482490143552100WETMH
2019-09-15 04:00:11FORECAST20193526745.5936.140.84501.04832.04832.144.1883TF13.59465.59259470.79167292100.1970039189890490143552100WETMH
2019-09-15 00:00:13FORECAST20193526740.5635.7538.15501.00162.12162.114.2316TF8.56453.56259470.79167292100.09679130475688690143552100WETM
2019-09-14 20:00:11FORECAST20193526745.3135.7140.5100.89252.01252.164.1725TF13.31471.31259470.79167292100.1901677741717490143552100WETMH
2019-09-14 16:00:13FORECAST20193526745.7835.840.7901.03462.27462.164.4346TF13.78469.78259470.79167292100.2017261560328990143552100WETMH
2019-09-14 12:00:13FORECAST20193526740.7536.0538.401.18122.58122.164.7412TF8.75462.75259470.79167292100.09972317120823390143552100WETM
2019-09-14 08:00:13FORECAST20193526740.7337.539.11501.07382.31382.164.4738TF8.73468.73259470.79167292100.09941154248450390143552100WETM
2019-09-14 04:00:12FORECAST20193526741.8336.6939.2601.13222.41222.164.5722TF9.83462.83259470.79167292100.1176219562239390143552100WETM
2019-09-14 00:00:14FORECAST20193526744.435.4439.9201.03582.32582.054.3758TF12.4468.4259470.79167292100.1689725945451490143552100WETM
2019-09-13 20:00:11FORECAST20193526744.4235.4539.93501.02142.26142.064.3214TF12.42475.42259470.79167292100.1694215091190790143552100WETM
2019-09-13 16:00:11FORECAST20193526740.835.7338.26500.97352.11352.054.1635TF8.8472.8259470.79167292100.1005053538970390143552100WETM
2019-09-13 12:00:11FORECAST20193526745.4735.3440.40501.00112.14112.054.1911TF13.47471.47259470.79167292100.1940561547769890143552100WETMH
2019-09-13 08:00:11FORECAST20193526745.4635.3540.40501.00112.13112.074.2011TF13.46471.46259470.79167292100.1938117240989290143552100WETMH
2019-09-13 04:00:12FORECAST20193526745.135.9240.5100.76111.84112.123.9611TF13.1479.1259470.79167292100.1851373605043890143552100DRYVH
2019-09-13 00:00:13FORECAST20193526747.5636.8342.19500.33331.41332.183.5933TF15.56465.56259470.79167292100.249150983552729024345290DRYVH
2019-09-12 20:00:11FORECAST20193526747.5836.8342.20500.33331.50332.263.7633TF15.58479.58259470.79167292100.2497154877719490243552112.5DRYVH
2019-09-12 16:00:11FORECAST20193526749.236.3242.7600.23981.32982.263.5898TF17.2482.2259470.79167292100.29759486171939024345290DRYVH
2019-09-12 12:00:12FORECAST20193526749.2735.342.28500.02570.99572.173.1657FF17.27477.27259470.79167292100.29975465112429024345290DRYVH
2019-09-12 08:00:11FORECAST20193526749.3135.2842.29500.02571.10572.223.3257TF17.31476.31259470.79167292100.300991991886219024345290DRYVH
2019-09-12 04:00:12FORECAST20193526749.9535.1942.5700.03241.10242.173.2724TF17.95480.95259470.79167292100.321093645198339024345290DRYVH
2019-09-12 00:00:12FORECAST20193526746.8835.140.9900.13621.13622.143.2762TF14.88461.88259470.79167292100.230367520162119014345280DRYVH
2019-09-11 20:00:11FORECAST20193526746.935.0840.9900.13621.14622.13.2462TF14.9472.9259470.79167292100.23090845088349014345280DRYVH
2019-09-11 16:00:11FORECAST20193526748.1535.6541.900.16231.24232.053.2923TF16.15474.15259470.79167292100.26608477778069024345290DRYVH
2019-09-11 12:00:11FORECAST20193526747.8835.5241.700.33171.20172.123.3217TF15.88476.88259470.79167292100.258263796262519024345290DRYVH
2019-09-11 08:00:11FORECAST20193526747.8935.5241.70500.33171.20172.073.2717TF15.89467.89259470.79167292100.2585513257859024345290DRYVH
2019-09-11 04:00:11FORECAST20193526746.6436.0641.3500.38511.17512.123.2951TF14.64472.64259470.79167292100.223931795870839014345280DRYVH
2019-09-11 00:00:13FORECAST20193526747.6535.0941.3700.07180.92181.72.6218FF15.65464.65259470.79167292100.251696581392339024335267.5DRYH
2019-09-10 20:00:11FORECAST20193526747.6735.0841.37500.06660.96661.92.8666FF15.67473.67259470.79167292100.252264126636839024335267.5DRYH
2019-09-10 16:00:11FORECAST20193526747.0834.9741.02500.02071.05071.963.0107FF15.08465.08259470.79167292100.235808558579539014345280DRYVH
2019-09-10 12:00:11FORECAST20193526742.4738.8440.65500.06821.01821.912.9282FF10.47475.47259470.79167292100.129241398490599014345280DRYVH
2019-09-10 08:00:11FORECAST20193526740.6538.8639.75500.02240.97241.932.9024FF8.65467.65259470.79167292100.0981721223811099014335260DRYH
2019-09-10 04:00:12FORECAST20193526738.8838.3238.600.00640.96641.942.9064FF6.88468.88259470.79167292100.0735648397366499014335260DRYH