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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 16, 2019

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DAY 351 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/17/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 45.04°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 36.71°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 40.87°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.165 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 13 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 480 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.05 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 1.14 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 2.16 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 3.30 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 258 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 470.31 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 66 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 3 D₂: 3 D₃: 4 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 70.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-09-17 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2019	351	66	45.03992	36.71006	40.87499	0.050000000000011	1.14	2.16	3.3	T	F	13.03992	480.03992	258	470.30774239242	0.1648466995236	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-17 00:00:14	FORECAST	2019	351	66	38.37	38.37	38.37	0.0032	1.0932	2.16	3.2532	T	F	6.37	473.37	259	470.791672921	0.06188232471146	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-16 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	351	66	47.86	38.4	43.13	0.1261	1.2161	2.16	3.3761	T	F	15.86	482.86	259	470.791672921	0.23074894282884	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-16 08:00:14	FORECAST	2019	351	66	47.55	37.66	42.605	0.1136	1.2036	2.16	3.3636	T	F	15.55	482.55	259	470.791672921	0.22285734911304	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-16 04:00:15	FORECAST	2019	351	66	43.07	37.72	40.395	0.1547	1.2447	2.16	3.4047	T	F	11.07	478.07	259	470.791672921	0.1268713588099	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-16 00:00:15	FORECAST	2019	351	66	47.88	37.7	42.79	0.1606	0.2106	2.16	2.3706	F	F	15.88	477.88	258	470.30774239242	0.2312633734387	91	1	3	3	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2019-09-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	48.07	35.22	41.645	0.2318	0.5718	2.16	2.7318	F	F	16.07	485.07	258	470.30774239242	0.23618219055097	91	1	3	3	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2019-09-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	48.11	37.78	42.945	0.24	0.58	2.16	2.74	F	F	16.11	485.11	258	470.30774239242	0.23722501295949	91	1	3	3	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2019-09-15 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	48.31	38.08	43.195	0.1705	0.5105	2.16	2.6705	F	F	16.31	485.31	258	470.30774239242	0.24247680752421	91	1	3	3	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2019-09-15 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	48.05	37.91	42.98	0.1597	0.8497	2.16	3.0097	F	F	16.05	483.05	258	470.30774239242	0.23566172616251	91	1	3	3	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2019-09-15 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	48.77	37.69	43.23	0.1641	1.0441	2.16	3.2041	F	F	16.77	483.77	258	470.30774239242	0.25479086199189	91	2	3	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	351	66	48.33	37.76	43.045	0.2276	1.1276	2.16	3.2876	T	F	16.33	477.33	258	470.30774239242	0.24300542341286	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-14 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	48.53	37.26	42.895	0.1528	1.1828	2.16	3.3428	T	F	16.53	489.53	258	470.30774239242	0.24832564923052	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-14 16:00:12	FORECAST	2019	351	66	48.19	37.02	42.605	0.1479	1.2979	2.16	3.4579	T	F	16.19	488.19	258	470.30774239242	0.23931821201707	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-14 12:00:13	FORECAST	2019	351	66	47.11	37.43	42.27	0.2543	1.4643	2.16	3.6243	T	F	15.11	486.11	258	470.30774239242	0.21192439216654	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-14 08:00:13	FORECAST	2019	351	66	48.59	38.02	43.305	0.2125	1.3025	2.16	3.4625	T	F	16.59	491.59	258	470.30774239242	0.2499337225286	91	2	3	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-14 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	351	66	48.04	37.36	42.7	0.1869	1.3369	2.16	3.4969	T	F	16.04	485.04	258	470.30774239242	0.23540173098554	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-14 00:00:14	FORECAST	2019	351	66	47.79	37.16	42.475	0.1516	1.3316	2.07	3.4016	T	F	15.79	487.79	258	470.30774239242	0.22895347005551	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-13 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	47.28	37.17	42.225	0.1081	1.2581	2.1	3.3581	T	F	15.28	495.28	258	470.30774239242	0.21611089004262	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-13 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	48.42	37.42	42.92	0.1156	1.1456	2.1	3.2456	T	F	16.42	496.42	258	470.30774239242	0.24539187788766	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	41.61	37.39	39.5	0.1409	1.1509	2.1	3.2509	T	F	9.61	489.61	258	470.30774239242	0.10296763823243	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	41.61	37.24	39.425	0.2056	1.1456	2.11	3.2556	T	F	9.61	489.61	258	470.30774239242	0.10296763823243	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-13 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	351	66	49.89	36.15	43.02	0.1655	1.0955	2.16	3.2555	T	F	17.89	497.89	258	470.30774239242	0.28608500977667	91	2	3	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-13 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	351	66	50.2	37.13	43.665	0.1102	1.1102	2.21	3.3202	T	F	18.2	482.2	258	470.30774239242	0.29505826378038	91	2	3	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-12 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	50.22	37.14	43.68	0.1158	1.1958	2.29	3.4858	T	F	18.22	496.22	258	470.30774239242	0.29564160380955	91	2	3	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	49.61	38.24	43.925	0.1276	1.1176	2.29	3.4076	T	F	17.61	496.61	258	470.30774239242	0.27809315804984	91	2	3	3	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-12 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	351	66	48.21	35.92	42.065	0.2097	1.0297	2.17	3.1997	F	F	16.21	492.21	258	470.30774239242	0.23984308130325	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	48.24	35.93	42.085	0.2097	1.1397	2.22	3.3597	T	F	16.24	491.24	258	470.30774239242	0.24063155935579	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-12 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	351	66	47.58	36.11	41.845	0.2042	1.1242	2.18	3.3042	T	F	15.58	494.58	258	470.30774239242	0.22361427847207	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-12 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	351	66	46.88	34.85	40.865	0.1361	1.0261	2.17	3.1961	F	F	14.88	478.88	258	470.30774239242	0.20633634142372	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-11 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	46.91	34.86	40.885	0.1361	1.0561	2.11	3.1661	F	F	14.91	489.91	258	470.30774239242	0.20706023624807	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	47.25	34.68	40.965	0.2033	1.1233	2.07	3.1933	T	F	15.25	490.25	258	470.30774239242	0.21536864156996	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	47.77	35.26	41.515	0.1212	0.9312	2.12	3.0512	F	F	15.77	492.77	258	470.30774239242	0.22844191895401	91	1	3	3	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2019-09-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	47.75	35.26	41.505	0.1212	0.9312	2.07	3.0012	F	F	15.75	483.75	258	470.30774239242	0.22793100955029	91	1	3	3	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2019-09-11 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	47.5	33.87	40.685	0.1393	0.8493	2.12	2.9693	F	F	15.5	489.5	258	470.30774239242	0.22159904404397	91	1	3	3	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2019-09-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	351	66	43.55	36.14	39.845	0.2135	0.9135	1.7	2.6135	F	F	11.55	480.55	258	470.30774239242	0.13551150444777	91	1	3	3	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2019-09-10 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	43.58	36.14	39.86	0.2135	0.9635	1.9	2.8635	F	F	11.58	489.58	258	470.30774239242	0.13606455061177	91	1	3	3	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2019-09-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	39.93	35.64	37.785	0.213	1.163	1.89	3.053	F	F	7.93	481.93	258	470.30774239242	0.079709583877688	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	49.31	35.61	42.46	0.136	0.956	1.96	2.916	F	F	17.31	497.31	258	470.30774239242	0.26965300395636	91	2	3	3	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-09-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	49.34	35.62	42.48	0.136	0.956	1.98	2.936	F	F	17.34	491.34	258	470.30774239242	0.27049121825552	91	2	3	3	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-09-10 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	351	66	48.56	35.76	42.16	0.1462	0.9662	1.99	2.9562	F	F	16.56	493.56	258	470.30774239242	0.24912899675776	91	2	3	3	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-09-10 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	351	66	44.95	33.65	39.3	0.3195	1.1495	1.19	2.3395	F	F	12.95	482.95	258	470.30774239242	0.16296779764573	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-09 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	44.98	33.66	39.32	0.2692	1.0992	1.7	2.7992	F	F	12.98	488.98	258	470.30774239242	0.1635931057881	91	1	3	3	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2019-09-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	47.91	35.85	41.88	0.0846	0.8646	1.42	2.2846	F	F	15.91	487.91	258	470.30774239242	0.23203621549928	91	1	3	3	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2019-09-09 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	48.04	39.01	43.525	0.0205	0.6905	1.37	2.0605	F	F	16.04	481.04	258	470.30774239242	0.23540173098554	91	1	3	3	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2019-09-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	351	66	41.6	39	40.3	0.0205	0.6905	1.67	2.3605	F	F	9.6	473.6	258	470.30774239242	0.10281601476687	91	1	3	3	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2019-09-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	351	66	44.18	41.75	42.965	0.0205	0.6605	1.65	2.3105	F	F	12.18	491.18	258	470.30774239242	0.14744939881015	91	1	3	3	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH