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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 16, 2019

[ Sunday, September 15, 2019 | Index | Today | Tuesday, September 17, 2019 ]

DAY 351 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/16/2019 12:00:10 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.88°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.70°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.79°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.231
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 478

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.16 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.21 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.16 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.37 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 258
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 470.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 66

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 35.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-09-16 00:00:15FORECAST20193516647.8837.742.7900.16060.21062.162.3706FF15.88477.88258470.3077423924200.23126337343879113325235DRYL
2019-09-15 20:00:11FORECAST20193516648.0735.2241.64500.23180.57182.162.7318FF16.07485.07258470.3077423924200.236182190550979113335252.5DRYMH
2019-09-15 16:00:11FORECAST20193516648.1137.7842.94500.240.582.162.74FF16.11485.11258470.3077423924200.237225012959499113335252.5DRYMH
2019-09-15 12:00:11FORECAST20193516648.3138.0843.19500.17050.51052.162.6705FF16.31485.31258470.3077423924200.242476807524219113335252.5DRYMH
2019-09-15 08:00:11FORECAST20193516648.0537.9142.9800.15970.84972.163.0097FF16.05483.05258470.3077423924200.235661726162519113335252.5DRYMH
2019-09-15 04:00:11FORECAST20193516648.7737.6943.2300.16411.04412.163.2041FF16.77483.77258470.3077423924200.254790861991899123345280DRYVH
2019-09-15 00:00:13FORECAST20193516648.3337.7643.04500.22761.12762.163.2876TF16.33477.33258470.3077423924200.243005423412869113345270DRYH
2019-09-14 20:00:11FORECAST20193516648.5337.2642.89500.15281.18282.163.3428TF16.53489.53258470.3077423924200.248325649230529113345270DRYH
2019-09-14 16:00:12FORECAST20193516648.1937.0242.60500.14791.29792.163.4579TF16.19488.19258470.3077423924200.239318212017079113345270DRYH
2019-09-14 12:00:13FORECAST20193516647.1137.4342.2700.25431.46432.163.6243TF15.11486.11258470.3077423924200.211924392166549113345270DRYH
2019-09-14 08:00:13FORECAST20193516648.5938.0243.30500.21251.30252.163.4625TF16.59491.59258470.3077423924200.24993372252869123345280DRYVH
2019-09-14 04:00:12FORECAST20193516648.0437.3642.700.18691.33692.163.4969TF16.04485.04258470.3077423924200.235401730985549113345270DRYH
2019-09-14 00:00:14FORECAST20193516647.7937.1642.47500.15161.33162.073.4016TF15.79487.79258470.3077423924200.228953470055519113345270DRYH
2019-09-13 20:00:11FORECAST20193516647.2837.1742.22500.10811.25812.13.3581TF15.28495.28258470.3077423924200.216110890042629113345270DRYH
2019-09-13 16:00:11FORECAST20193516648.4237.4242.9200.11561.14562.13.2456TF16.42496.42258470.3077423924200.245391877887669113345270DRYH
2019-09-13 12:00:11FORECAST20193516641.6137.3939.500.14091.15092.13.2509TF9.61489.61258470.3077423924200.102967638232439113345270DRYH
2019-09-13 08:00:11FORECAST20193516641.6137.2439.42500.20561.14562.113.2556TF9.61489.61258470.3077423924200.102967638232439113345270DRYH
2019-09-13 04:00:12FORECAST20193516649.8936.1543.0200.16551.09552.163.2555TF17.89497.89258470.3077423924200.286085009776679123345280DRYVH
2019-09-13 00:00:13FORECAST20193516650.237.1343.66500.11021.11022.213.3202TF18.2482.2258470.3077423924200.295058263780389123345280DRYVH
2019-09-12 20:00:11FORECAST20193516650.2237.1443.6800.11581.19582.293.4858TF18.22496.22258470.3077423924200.295641603809559123345280DRYVH
2019-09-12 16:00:11FORECAST20193516649.6138.2443.92500.12761.11762.293.4076TF17.61496.61258470.3077423924200.278093158049849123345280DRYVH
2019-09-12 12:00:12FORECAST20193516648.2135.9242.06500.20971.02972.173.1997FF16.21492.21258470.3077423924200.239843081303259113345270DRYH
2019-09-12 08:00:11FORECAST20193516648.2435.9342.08500.20971.13972.223.3597TF16.24491.24258470.3077423924200.240631559355799113345270DRYH
2019-09-12 04:00:12FORECAST20193516647.5836.1141.84500.20421.12422.183.3042TF15.58494.58258470.3077423924200.223614278472079113345270DRYH
2019-09-12 00:00:12FORECAST20193516646.8834.8540.86500.13611.02612.173.1961FF14.88478.88258470.3077423924200.206336341423729113345270DRYH
2019-09-11 20:00:11FORECAST20193516646.9134.8640.88500.13611.05612.113.1661FF14.91489.91258470.3077423924200.207060236248079113345270DRYH
2019-09-11 16:00:11FORECAST20193516647.2534.6840.96500.20331.12332.073.1933TF15.25490.25258470.3077423924200.215368641569969113345270DRYH
2019-09-11 12:00:11FORECAST20193516647.7735.2641.51500.12120.93122.123.0512FF15.77492.77258470.3077423924200.228441918954019113335252.5DRYMH
2019-09-11 08:00:11FORECAST20193516647.7535.2641.50500.12120.93122.073.0012FF15.75483.75258470.3077423924200.227931009550299113335252.5DRYMH
2019-09-11 04:00:11FORECAST20193516647.533.8740.68500.13930.84932.122.9693FF15.5489.5258470.3077423924200.221599044043979113335252.5DRYMH
2019-09-11 00:00:13FORECAST20193516643.5536.1439.84500.21350.91351.72.6135FF11.55480.55258470.3077423924200.135511504447779113335252.5DRYMH
2019-09-10 20:00:11FORECAST20193516643.5836.1439.8600.21350.96351.92.8635FF11.58489.58258470.3077423924200.136064550611779113335252.5DRYMH
2019-09-10 16:00:11FORECAST20193516639.9335.6437.78500.2131.1631.893.053FF7.93481.93258470.3077423924200.0797095838776889113345270DRYH
2019-09-10 12:00:11FORECAST20193516649.3135.6142.4600.1360.9561.962.916FF17.31497.31258470.3077423924200.269653003956369123335260DRYH
2019-09-10 08:00:11FORECAST20193516649.3435.6242.4800.1360.9561.982.936FF17.34491.34258470.3077423924200.270491218255529123335260DRYH
2019-09-10 04:00:12FORECAST20193516648.5635.7642.1600.14620.96621.992.9562FF16.56493.56258470.3077423924200.249128996757769123335260DRYH
2019-09-10 00:00:12FORECAST20193516644.9533.6539.300.31951.14951.192.3395FF12.95482.95258470.3077423924200.162967797645739113345270DRYH
2019-09-09 20:00:11FORECAST20193516644.9833.6639.3200.26921.09921.72.7992FF12.98488.98258470.3077423924200.16359310578819113345270DRYH
2019-09-09 16:00:11FORECAST20193516647.9135.8541.8800.08460.86461.422.2846FF15.91487.91258470.3077423924200.232036215499289113335252.5DRYMH
2019-09-09 12:00:11FORECAST20193516648.0439.0143.52500.02050.69051.372.0605FF16.04481.04258470.3077423924200.235401730985549113335252.5DRYMH
2019-09-09 08:00:11FORECAST20193516641.63940.300.02050.69051.672.3605FF9.6473.6258470.3077423924200.102816014766879113335252.5DRYMH
2019-09-09 04:00:12FORECAST20193516644.1841.7542.96500.02050.66051.652.3105FF12.18491.18258470.3077423924200.147449398810159113335252.5DRYMH