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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, September 15, 2019

[ Saturday, September 14, 2019 | Index | Today | Monday, September 16, 2019 ]

DAY 350 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/16/2019 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.42°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.04°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.73°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.153
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 499

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.05 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.18 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.44 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.62 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 257
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 469.82 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 65

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 4
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 80.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-09-16 04:00:15OBSERVATION20193506545.4200840.0400642.7300701.051.182.443.62TF13.42008499.42008257469.82196942943 00.1530898001961191 13445280DRYVH
2019-09-16 00:00:15FORECAST20193506540.0440.0440.0400.00760.13762.442.5776FF8.04494.04258470.3077423924200.069204666743669113325235DRYL
2019-09-15 12:00:11FORECAST20193506547.3638.542.9300.29690.42692.442.8669FF15.36501.36258470.3077423924200.195410617824629113425240DRYM
2019-09-15 08:00:11FORECAST20193506544.5338.8541.6900.65250.78252.443.2225FF12.53498.53258470.3077423924200.135869645659369113335252.5DRYMH
2019-09-15 04:00:11FORECAST20193506544.7739.0541.9100.84030.97032.443.4103TF12.77498.77258470.3077423924200.140377000279229113335252.5DRYMH
2019-09-15 00:00:13FORECAST20193506545.3639.1842.2700.88930.98932.443.4293TF13.36493.36257469.8219694294300.15188394382459113335252.5DRYMH
2019-09-14 20:00:11FORECAST20193506545.8239.542.6600.97371.12372.443.5637TF13.82504.82257469.8219694294300.16127740983849113445280DRYVH
2019-09-14 16:00:12FORECAST20193506545.3139.4942.401.09321.24322.443.6832TF13.31504.31257469.8219694294300.150885212497959113445280DRYVH
2019-09-14 12:00:13FORECAST20193506544.3939.2541.8201.15051.30052.443.7405TF12.39503.39257469.8219694294300.133286484853239113445280DRYVH
2019-09-14 08:00:13FORECAST20193506547.0239.1443.0801.03261.18262.443.6226TF15.02507.02257469.8219694294300.187521054247049113445280DRYVH
2019-09-14 04:00:12FORECAST20193506544.6239.1741.89501.08861.23862.443.6786TF12.62500.62257469.8219694294300.137548184262259113445280DRYVH
2019-09-14 00:00:14FORECAST2019350654638.6142.30501.14421.18422.443.6242TF14504257469.8219694294300.16505386567499113445280DRYVH
2019-09-13 20:00:11FORECAST20193506544.5338.5641.54501.13491.18492.443.6249TF12.53511.53257469.8219694294300.135869645659369113445280DRYVH
2019-09-13 16:00:11FORECAST20193506545.3839.0342.20501.01751.05752.443.4975TF13.38512.38257469.8219694294300.152284659992079113445280DRYVH
2019-09-13 12:00:11FORECAST20193506545.1638.4841.8201.00451.04452.443.4845TF13.16512.16257469.8219694294300.147915229026599113445280DRYVH
2019-09-13 08:00:11FORECAST20193506544.8338.5741.700.92480.98482.443.4248TF12.83511.83257469.8219694294300.141519479780519113435260DRYH
2019-09-13 04:00:12FORECAST20193506544.6438.5741.60500.91121.02122.443.4612TF12.64511.64257469.8219694294300.137923101478579113445280DRYVH
2019-09-13 00:00:13FORECAST20193506544.2238.7541.48500.97491.28492.33.5849TF12.22496.22257469.8219694294300.130195347587889113345270DRYH
2019-09-12 20:00:11FORECAST20193506544.2639.1441.701.05181.44182.33.7418TF12.26510.26257469.8219694294300.13091818605259113445280DRYVH
2019-09-12 16:00:11FORECAST20193506544.1739.141.63500.95761.34762.33.6476TF12.17511.17257469.8219694294300.1292956778159113445280DRYVH
2019-09-12 12:00:12FORECAST20193506543.6838.4541.06500.76411.06412.33.3641TF11.68507.68257469.8219694294300.120706010016669113445280DRYVH
2019-09-12 08:00:11FORECAST20193506542.7838.4740.62500.86691.20692.313.5169TF10.78506.78257469.8219694294300.1059893594919113445280DRYVH
2019-09-12 04:00:12FORECAST20193506546.7637.2542.00500.86791.19792.273.4679TF14.76510.76257469.8219694294300.181622402884449113445280DRYVH
2019-09-12 00:00:12FORECAST20193506542.3135.9639.13500.85711.16712.263.4271TF10.31496.31257469.8219694294300.0988390033709299113345270DRYH
2019-09-11 20:00:11FORECAST20193506542.4835.9839.2300.86851.12852.273.3985TF10.48507.48257469.8219694294300.101383554000989113445280DRYVH
2019-09-11 16:00:11FORECAST20193506541.9536.8339.3900.87541.08542.273.3554TF9.95506.95257469.8219694294300.0936049185464829113445280DRYVH
2019-09-11 12:00:11FORECAST20193506542.2336.5439.38500.74921.03922.263.2992TF10.23509.23257469.8219694294300.0976578158150589113445280DRYVH
2019-09-11 08:00:11FORECAST20193506542.2536.5739.4100.74920.98922.263.2492TF10.25500.25257469.8219694294300.0979521410279539113435260DRYH
2019-09-11 04:00:11FORECAST20193506543.8536.8340.3400.64530.91532.283.1953FF11.85505.85257469.8219694294300.123639541037759113435260DRYH
2019-09-11 00:00:13FORECAST20193506544.5238.3841.4500.64240.87241.92.7724FF12.52500.52257469.8219694294300.135684008406619113435260DRYH
2019-09-10 20:00:11FORECAST20193506546.8137.2442.02500.6890.9292.093.019FF14.81509.81257469.8219694294300.182747669857139113435260DRYH
2019-09-10 16:00:11FORECAST20193506542.773739.88500.82141.12142.093.2114TF10.77505.77257469.8219694294300.105833444180279113445280DRYVH
2019-09-10 12:00:11FORECAST20193506545.7437.8541.79500.80571.04572.13.1457FF13.74511.74257469.8219694294300.159617174661029113445280DRYVH
2019-09-10 08:00:11FORECAST20193506545.7637.8741.81500.80571.01572.153.1657FF13.76505.76257469.8219694294300.160031183871859113445280DRYVH
2019-09-10 04:00:12FORECAST20193506546.6637.6842.1700.81071.00072.183.1807FF14.66508.66257469.8219694294300.17938488003449113445280DRYVH
2019-09-10 00:00:12FORECAST20193506544.4735.6540.0600.7981.2081.182.388FF12.47502.47257469.8219694294300.134758421207569113445280DRYVH
2019-09-09 20:00:11FORECAST20193506544.4835.6440.0600.7981.2181.682.898FF12.48508.48257469.8219694294300.13494319219899113445280DRYVH
2019-09-09 16:00:11FORECAST20193506541.9735.8938.9300.74610.96611.62.5661FF9.97503.97257469.8219694294300.0938902407215989113435260DRYH
2019-09-09 12:00:11FORECAST20193506549.4437.4343.43500.29790.78791.622.4079FF17.44497.44257469.8219694294300.247898578363889113335252.5DRYMH
2019-09-09 08:00:11FORECAST20193506549.4537.443.42500.29790.78791.922.7079FF17.45496.45257469.8219694294300.248167846881229113335252.5DRYMH
2019-09-09 04:00:12FORECAST20193506553.6841.1347.40500.29080.76081.92.6608FF21.68510.68257469.8219694294300.374344513479749123435267.5DRYH
2019-09-09 00:00:14FORECAST20193506549.4738.5844.02500.19531.25532.043.2953TF17.47498.47257469.8219694294300.248706850844919113345270DRYH
2019-09-08 20:00:11FORECAST20193506549.4838.5844.0300.1911.2512.443.691TF17.48511.48257469.8219694294300.248976586081889113445280DRYVH
2019-09-08 16:00:11FORECAST20193506548.7938.1843.48500.2661.5362.43.936TF16.79511.79257469.8219694294300.2307348292315391134552100DRYVH
2019-09-08 12:00:11FORECAST20193506538.3735.8637.11500.0711.0012.683.681TF6.37479.37257469.8219694294300.0521614826970469113345270DRYH
2019-09-08 08:00:11FORECAST20193506538.3937.5337.9600.04670.97672.583.5567TF6.39474.39257469.8219694294300.0523438514857389113335252.5DRYMH
2019-09-08 04:00:16FORECAST20193506538.737.137.900.02781.37782.423.7978TF6.7487.7257469.8219694294300.0552355711986859113345270DRYH