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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, September 14, 2019

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DAY 349 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/15/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 52.20°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 43.87°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 48.03°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.309 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 20 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 532 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.04 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.31 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 2.26 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 2.57 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 256 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 469.33 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 64 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 2 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 45.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-09-15 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2019	349	64	52.19996	43.86992	48.03494	0.039999999999964	0.30999999999996	2.26	2.57	F	F	20.19996	532.19996	256	469.33434701745	0.30935600906723	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	349	64	45.68	45.68	45.68	0.0064	0.2764	2.26	2.5364	F	F	13.68	525.68	257	469.82196942943	0.14634585925364	93	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-14 12:00:13	FORECAST	2019	349	64	57.36	45.34	51.35	0.0563	0.3263	2.26	2.5863	F	F	25.36	537.36	257	469.82196942943	0.47650050703446	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-14 08:00:13	FORECAST	2019	349	64	57.77	44.62	51.195	0.0643	0.3343	2.26	2.5943	F	F	25.77	537.77	257	469.82196942943	0.49039505496635	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-14 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	349	64	54.44	43.97	49.205	0.0596	0.3296	2.26	2.5896	F	F	22.44	534.44	257	469.82196942943	0.37934097370471	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-14 00:00:14	FORECAST	2019	349	64	57.52	44.79	51.155	0.0356	0.2156	2.26	2.4756	F	F	25.52	535.52	256	469.33434701745	0.48192030428848	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-13 20:00:10	FORECAST	2019	349	64	57.63	44.18	50.905	0.0154	0.2254	2.26	2.4854	F	F	25.63	544.63	256	469.33434701745	0.48564841491914	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-13 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	58.16	45.37	51.765	0.0118	0.2218	2.26	2.4818	F	F	26.16	545.16	256	469.33434701745	0.50362290160701	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-09-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	57.83	45.37	51.6	0.0112	0.2212	2.26	2.4812	F	F	25.83	544.83	256	469.33434701745	0.49242978499814	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	57.68	45.01	51.345	0.0228	0.2428	2.26	2.5028	F	F	25.68	544.68	256	469.33434701745	0.4873434450557	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-13 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	349	64	57.26	44.84	51.05	0.0241	0.2941	2.26	2.5541	F	F	25.26	545.26	256	469.33434701745	0.47311527615482	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-13 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	349	64	57.57	44.37	50.97	0.0254	0.3454	2.26	2.6054	F	F	25.57	529.57	256	469.33434701745	0.48361472367488	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-12 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	57.54	44.19	50.865	0.0331	0.4331	2.26	2.6931	F	F	25.54	543.54	256	469.33434701745	0.48259803457088	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	57.88	44.4	51.14	0.0333	0.4333	2.26	2.6933	F	F	25.88	544.88	256	469.33434701745	0.49412554608459	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-12 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	349	64	55.64	44.14	49.89	0.0645	0.3445	2.26	2.6045	F	F	23.64	541.64	256	469.33434701745	0.41871510315341	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	55.51	43.2	49.355	0.0618	0.3918	2.26	2.6518	F	F	23.51	541.51	256	469.33434701745	0.41440231816059	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-12 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	349	64	55.84	43.14	49.49	0.0526	0.3426	2.26	2.6026	F	F	23.84	541.84	256	469.33434701745	0.42536909707547	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-12 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	349	64	55.83	42.51	49.17	0.0315	0.3215	2.25	2.5715	F	F	23.83	531.83	256	469.33434701745	0.42503587551038	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-11 20:00:10	FORECAST	2019	349	64	55.8	42.77	49.285	0.0491	0.2691	2.26	2.5291	F	F	23.8	542.8	256	469.33434701745	0.42403653300671	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	55.36	42.63	48.995	0.0381	0.2181	2.26	2.4781	F	F	23.36	543.36	256	469.33434701745	0.4094388507335	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	56.79	42.68	49.735	0.058	0.288	2.26	2.548	F	F	24.79	544.79	256	469.33434701745	0.4572346987582	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	50.31	42.7	46.505	0.059	0.239	2.26	2.499	F	F	18.31	536.31	256	469.33434701745	0.25514478191479	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-11 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	54.46	43	48.73	0.0601	0.2801	2.27	2.5501	F	F	22.46	540.46	256	469.33434701745	0.37998827919424	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	349	64	55.1	44.54	49.82	0.0616	0.2416	1.89	2.1316	F	F	23.1	534.1	256	469.33434701745	0.4008702287651	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-10 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	54.41	42.59	48.5	0.0625	0.2425	2.09	2.3325	F	F	22.41	541.41	256	469.33434701745	0.37837064966873	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	52.7	42.91	47.805	0.1277	0.2977	2.09	2.3877	F	F	20.7	540.7	256	469.33434701745	0.3244975425144	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	57.79	44.73	51.26	0.0097	0.2397	2.1	2.3397	F	F	25.79	543.79	256	469.33434701745	0.4910732731547	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	57.79	44.74	51.265	0.0097	0.2097	2.15	2.3597	F	F	25.79	537.79	256	469.33434701745	0.4910732731547	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-10 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	349	64	57.44	42.6	50.02	0.0124	0.1924	2.18	2.3724	F	F	25.44	540.44	256	469.33434701745	0.47920992515851	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-10 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	349	64	54.58	42.29	48.435	0.0316	0.4116	1.18	1.5916	F	F	22.58	535.58	256	469.33434701745	0.38387911414532	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-09 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	54.58	42.3	48.44	0.0316	0.4216	1.68	2.1016	F	F	22.58	541.58	256	469.33434701745	0.38387911414532	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	53.61	42.14	47.875	0.0277	0.2177	1.6	1.8177	F	F	21.61	539.61	256	469.33434701745	0.3527956216291	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-09 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	46.27	40.55	43.41	0.369	0.489	1.62	2.109	F	F	14.27	526.27	256	469.33434701745	0.15816481305477	93	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	46.26	40.57	43.415	0.369	0.489	1.92	2.409	F	F	14.26	525.26	256	469.33434701745	0.15795942690277	93	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	349	64	50.14	41.7	45.92	0.3467	0.4667	1.9	2.3667	F	F	18.14	535.14	256	469.33434701745	0.25052340426788	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-09 00:00:14	FORECAST	2019	349	64	51.73	41.88	46.805	0.9273	1.0573	2.04	3.0973	F	F	19.73	526.73	256	469.33434701745	0.29541366073327	93	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-08 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	51.71	41.9	46.805	0.9273	1.0573	2.44	3.4973	T	F	19.71	539.71	256	469.33434701745	0.29482677521539	93	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-09-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	49.93	42.08	46.005	0.9648	1.2748	2.4	3.6748	T	F	17.93	540.93	256	469.33434701745	0.24487637013228	93	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-08 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	42.99	38.57	40.78	0.6816	0.9316	2.68	3.6116	T	F	10.99	518.99	256	469.33434701745	0.10005375131613	93	1	3	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-09-08 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	42.97	38.59	40.78	0.6816	0.9316	2.58	3.5116	T	F	10.97	513.97	256	469.33434701745	0.099755012205676	93	1	3	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-09-08 04:00:15	FORECAST	2019	349	64	45.66	37.25	41.455	0.9994	1.3494	2.42	3.7694	T	F	13.66	526.66	256	469.33434701745	0.14595586106867	93	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-08 00:00:14	FORECAST	2019	349	64	45.98	38.01	41.995	0.977	1.177	2.69	3.867	T	F	13.98	502.98	256	469.33434701745	0.15227954676177	93	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-07 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	45.97	38	41.985	0.8435	1.0435	2.78	3.8235	T	F	13.97	521.97	256	469.33434701745	0.15207922660795	93	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-09-07 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	41.54	38.29	39.915	0.5884	0.6784	2.71	3.3884	F	F	9.54	522.54	256	469.33434701745	0.08004383963065	93	1	3	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-09-07 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	53.71	49.56	51.635	0.0341	0.1341	2.83	2.9641	F	F	21.71	538.71	256	469.33434701745	0.35595910542382	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-07 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	52.44	49.57	51.005	0.0217	0.1217	2.83	2.9517	F	F	20.44	536.44	256	469.33434701745	0.31658631223577	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-07 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	349	64	52.73	50.76	51.745	0.0033	0.0533	2.93	2.9833	F	F	20.73	533.73	256	469.33434701745	0.32541557954675	93	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L