Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, September 14, 2019

[ Friday, September 13, 2019 | Index | Today | Sunday, September 15, 2019 ]

DAY 349 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/15/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.87°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.03°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.309
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 532

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.31 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.26 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.57 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 256
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 469.33 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 64

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-09-15 04:00:11OBSERVATION20193496452.1999643.8699248.0349400.0399999999999640.309999999999962.262.57FF20.19996532.19996256469.33434701745 00.3093560090672393 23425245DRYM
2019-09-15 00:00:13FORECAST20193496445.6845.6845.6800.00640.27642.262.5364FF13.68525.68257469.8219694294300.146345859253649313425240DRYM
2019-09-14 12:00:13FORECAST20193496457.3645.3451.3500.05630.32632.262.5863FF25.36537.36257469.8219694294300.476500507034469323425245DRYM
2019-09-14 08:00:13FORECAST20193496457.7744.6251.19500.06430.33432.262.5943FF25.77537.77257469.8219694294300.490395054966359323425245DRYM
2019-09-14 04:00:12FORECAST20193496454.4443.9749.20500.05960.32962.262.5896FF22.44534.44257469.8219694294300.379340973704719323425245DRYM
2019-09-14 00:00:14FORECAST20193496457.5244.7951.15500.03560.21562.262.4756FF25.52535.52256469.3343470174500.481920304288489323425245DRYM
2019-09-13 20:00:10FORECAST20193496457.6344.1850.90500.01540.22542.262.4854FF25.63544.63256469.3343470174500.485648414919149323425245DRYM
2019-09-13 16:00:11FORECAST20193496458.1645.3751.76500.01180.22182.262.4818FF26.16545.16256469.3343470174500.503622901607019333425250DRYMH
2019-09-13 12:00:11FORECAST20193496457.8345.3751.600.01120.22122.262.4812FF25.83544.83256469.3343470174500.492429784998149323425245DRYM
2019-09-13 08:00:11FORECAST20193496457.6845.0151.34500.02280.24282.262.5028FF25.68544.68256469.3343470174500.48734344505579323425245DRYM
2019-09-13 04:00:12FORECAST20193496457.2644.8451.0500.02410.29412.262.5541FF25.26545.26256469.3343470174500.473115276154829323425245DRYM
2019-09-13 00:00:13FORECAST20193496457.5744.3750.9700.02540.34542.262.6054FF25.57529.57256469.3343470174500.483614723674889323425245DRYM
2019-09-12 20:00:11FORECAST20193496457.5444.1950.86500.03310.43312.262.6931FF25.54543.54256469.3343470174500.482598034570889323425245DRYM
2019-09-12 16:00:11FORECAST20193496457.8844.451.1400.03330.43332.262.6933FF25.88544.88256469.3343470174500.494125546084599323425245DRYM
2019-09-12 12:00:12FORECAST20193496455.6444.1449.8900.06450.34452.262.6045FF23.64541.64256469.3343470174500.418715103153419323425245DRYM
2019-09-12 08:00:11FORECAST20193496455.5143.249.35500.06180.39182.262.6518FF23.51541.51256469.3343470174500.414402318160599323425245DRYM
2019-09-12 04:00:12FORECAST20193496455.8443.1449.4900.05260.34262.262.6026FF23.84541.84256469.3343470174500.425369097075479323425245DRYM
2019-09-12 00:00:12FORECAST20193496455.8342.5149.1700.03150.32152.252.5715FF23.83531.83256469.3343470174500.425035875510389323425245DRYM
2019-09-11 20:00:10FORECAST20193496455.842.7749.28500.04910.26912.262.5291FF23.8542.8256469.3343470174500.424036533006719323425245DRYM
2019-09-11 16:00:11FORECAST20193496455.3642.6348.99500.03810.21812.262.4781FF23.36543.36256469.3343470174500.40943885073359323425245DRYM
2019-09-11 12:00:11FORECAST20193496456.7942.6849.73500.0580.2882.262.548FF24.79544.79256469.3343470174500.45723469875829323425245DRYM
2019-09-11 08:00:11FORECAST20193496450.3142.746.50500.0590.2392.262.499FF18.31536.31256469.3343470174500.255144781914799323425245DRYM
2019-09-11 04:00:11FORECAST20193496454.464348.7300.06010.28012.272.5501FF22.46540.46256469.3343470174500.379988279194249323425245DRYM
2019-09-11 00:00:13FORECAST20193496455.144.5449.8200.06160.24161.892.1316FF23.1534.1256469.3343470174500.40087022876519323425245DRYM
2019-09-10 20:00:11FORECAST20193496454.4142.5948.500.06250.24252.092.3325FF22.41541.41256469.3343470174500.378370649668739323425245DRYM
2019-09-10 16:00:11FORECAST20193496452.742.9147.80500.12770.29772.092.3877FF20.7540.7256469.3343470174500.32449754251449323425245DRYM
2019-09-10 12:00:11FORECAST20193496457.7944.7351.2600.00970.23972.12.3397FF25.79543.79256469.3343470174500.49107327315479323425245DRYM
2019-09-10 08:00:11FORECAST20193496457.7944.7451.26500.00970.20972.152.3597FF25.79537.79256469.3343470174500.49107327315479323425245DRYM
2019-09-10 04:00:12FORECAST20193496457.4442.650.0200.01240.19242.182.3724FF25.44540.44256469.3343470174500.479209925158519323425245DRYM
2019-09-10 00:00:12FORECAST20193496454.5842.2948.43500.03160.41161.181.5916FF22.58535.58256469.3343470174500.383879114145329323425245DRYM
2019-09-09 20:00:11FORECAST20193496454.5842.348.4400.03160.42161.682.1016FF22.58541.58256469.3343470174500.383879114145329323425245DRYM
2019-09-09 16:00:11FORECAST20193496453.6142.1447.87500.02770.21771.61.8177FF21.61539.61256469.3343470174500.35279562162919323425245DRYM
2019-09-09 12:00:11FORECAST20193496446.2740.5543.4100.3690.4891.622.109FF14.27526.27256469.3343470174500.158164813054779313425240DRYM
2019-09-09 08:00:11FORECAST20193496446.2640.5743.41500.3690.4891.922.409FF14.26525.26256469.3343470174500.157959426902779313425240DRYM
2019-09-09 04:00:12FORECAST20193496450.1441.745.9200.34670.46671.92.3667FF18.14535.14256469.3343470174500.250523404267889323425245DRYM
2019-09-09 00:00:14FORECAST20193496451.7341.8846.80500.92731.05732.043.0973FF19.73526.73256469.3343470174500.295413660733279323445290DRYVH
2019-09-08 20:00:11FORECAST20193496451.7141.946.80500.92731.05732.443.4973TF19.71539.71256469.3343470174500.294826775215399323445290DRYVH
2019-09-08 16:00:11FORECAST20193496449.9342.0846.00500.96481.27482.43.6748TF17.93540.93256469.3343470174500.244876370132289313445280DRYVH
2019-09-08 12:00:11FORECAST20193496442.9938.5740.7800.68160.93162.683.6116TF10.99518.99256469.3343470174500.100053751316139313435260DRYH
2019-09-08 08:00:11FORECAST20193496442.9738.5940.7800.68160.93162.583.5116TF10.97513.97256469.3343470174500.0997550122056769313435260DRYH
2019-09-08 04:00:15FORECAST20193496445.6637.2541.45500.99941.34942.423.7694TF13.66526.66256469.3343470174500.145955861068679313445280DRYVH
2019-09-08 00:00:14FORECAST20193496445.9838.0141.99500.9771.1772.693.867TF13.98502.98256469.3343470174500.152279546761779313445280DRYVH
2019-09-07 20:00:11FORECAST20193496445.973841.98500.84351.04352.783.8235TF13.97521.97256469.3343470174500.152079226607959313445280DRYVH
2019-09-07 16:00:11FORECAST20193496441.5438.2939.91500.58840.67842.713.3884FF9.54522.54256469.3343470174500.080043839630659313435260DRYH
2019-09-07 12:00:11FORECAST20193496453.7149.5651.63500.03410.13412.832.9641FF21.71538.71256469.3343470174500.355959105423829323425245DRYM
2019-09-07 08:00:11FORECAST20193496452.4449.5751.00500.02170.12172.832.9517FF20.44536.44256469.3343470174500.316586312235779323425245DRYM
2019-09-07 04:00:11FORECAST20193496452.7350.7651.74500.00330.05332.932.9833FF20.73533.73256469.3343470174500.325415579546759323415222.5DRYL