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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, September 13, 2019

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DAY 348 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/14/2019 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 49.12°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 41.60°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 45.36°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.183 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 17 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 555 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.09 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.28 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 2.25 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 2.53 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 255 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 468.84 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 63 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 40.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-09-14 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2019	348	63	49.11998	41.59994	45.35996	0.090000000000032	0.28000000000003	2.25	2.53	F	F	17.11998	555.11998	255	468.84486811521	0.18265955271694	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-14 00:00:14	FORECAST	2019	348	63	47.09	47.09	47.09	0.0021	0.1921	2.25	2.4421	F	F	15.09	553.09	256	469.33434701745	0.13561429524026	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	56.3	46.03	51.165	0.0344	0.2244	2.25	2.4744	F	F	24.3	562.3	256	469.33434701745	0.41444448381778	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	56.27	44.56	50.415	0.0365	0.2265	2.25	2.4765	F	F	24.27	562.27	256	469.33434701745	0.41332278241704	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-13 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	348	63	56.75	43.7	50.225	0.0944	0.2844	2.25	2.5344	F	F	24.75	562.75	256	469.33434701745	0.43134877427401	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-13 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	348	63	56.81	41.19	49	0.283	0.333	2.25	2.583	F	F	24.81	546.81	255	468.84486811521	0.43361292201739	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-12 20:00:10	FORECAST	2019	348	63	56.37	41.28	48.825	0.3558	0.4058	2.25	2.6558	F	F	24.37	561.37	255	468.84486811521	0.41706448641117	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	57.22	43.41	50.315	0.3613	0.4113	2.25	2.6613	F	F	25.22	562.22	255	468.84486811521	0.44913913760618	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-12 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	56.32	44.7	50.51	0.2378	0.2878	2.25	2.5378	F	F	24.32	561.32	255	468.84486811521	0.41519267310709	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	56	44.58	50.29	0.2824	0.3424	2.25	2.5924	F	F	24	561	255	468.84486811521	0.4032603371434	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-12 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	348	63	55.73	44.55	50.14	0.2755	0.2955	2.25	2.5455	F	F	23.73	560.73	255	468.84486811521	0.39326152915259	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-12 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	348	63	55.53	44.33	49.93	0.2758	0.2858	2.25	2.5358	F	F	23.53	550.53	255	468.84486811521	0.38589972566528	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-11 20:00:10	FORECAST	2019	348	63	55.69	44.23	49.96	0.2071	0.2271	2.25	2.4771	F	F	23.69	561.69	255	468.84486811521	0.39178601949994	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	56.82	43.81	50.315	0.1653	0.1853	2.25	2.4353	F	F	24.82	562.82	255	468.84486811521	0.43399049392833	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	56.51	42.32	49.415	0.2268	0.2368	2.25	2.4868	F	F	24.51	562.51	255	468.84486811521	0.42231544126848	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	56.48	44.22	50.35	0.1776	0.1876	2.25	2.4376	F	F	24.48	561.48	255	468.84486811521	0.42118904033872	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-11 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	55.59	44.71	50.15	0.2121	0.2421	2.25	2.4921	F	F	23.59	560.59	255	468.84486811521	0.3881040899984	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	348	63	55.37	41.65	48.51	0.168	0.208	1.86	2.068	F	F	23.37	554.37	255	468.84486811521	0.38003957798952	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-10 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	54.48	44.02	49.25	0.182	0.212	2.06	2.272	F	F	22.48	562.48	255	468.84486811521	0.34797658166713	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	55	43.08	49.04	0.1735	0.2035	2.06	2.2635	F	F	23	563	255	468.84486811521	0.36659501982137	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	52.38	43.88	48.13	0.2262	0.2662	2.06	2.3262	F	F	20.38	561.38	255	468.84486811521	0.27681409230222	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	52.34	43.2	47.77	0.1965	0.2465	2.1	2.3465	F	F	20.34	555.34	255	468.84486811521	0.27553040490296	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-10 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	348	63	55.14	42.56	48.85	0.1824	0.2224	2.14	2.3624	F	F	23.14	558.14	255	468.84486811521	0.3716639436021	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-10 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	348	63	53.32	41.9	47.61	0.3769	0.3969	1.16	1.5569	F	F	21.32	556.32	255	468.84486811521	0.30779315723788	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-09 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	53.33	41.91	47.62	0.3903	0.4203	1.65	2.0703	F	F	21.33	562.33	255	468.84486811521	0.30813076798415	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	51.79	42.33	47.06	0.193	0.223	1.57	1.793	F	F	19.79	560.79	255	468.84486811521	0.25818200768693	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-09 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	55.13	42.78	48.955	0.1199	0.1499	1.59	1.7399	F	F	23.13	555.13	255	468.84486811521	0.37130112705103	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	55.14	42.77	48.955	0.1199	0.1399	1.9	2.0399	F	F	23.14	554.14	255	468.84486811521	0.3716639436021	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	348	63	55.4	44.19	49.795	0.1241	0.1441	1.88	2.0241	F	F	23.4	560.4	255	468.84486811521	0.38113630593415	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-09 00:00:14	FORECAST	2019	348	63	57.27	44.18	50.725	0.1338	0.1538	2.02	2.1738	F	F	25.27	550.27	255	468.84486811521	0.45103840838551	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-08 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	57.29	44.19	50.74	0.1338	0.1538	2.42	2.5738	F	F	25.29	563.29	255	468.84486811521	0.45179843314696	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	55.96	43.83	49.895	0.311	0.341	2.37	2.711	F	F	23.96	565.96	255	468.84486811521	0.40177486406937	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-08 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	57.1	41.45	49.275	0.2539	0.3439	2.59	2.9339	F	F	25.1	551.1	255	468.84486811521	0.44458572104895	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-08 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	57.12	41.47	49.295	0.2539	0.3439	2.49	2.8339	F	F	25.12	546.12	255	468.84486811521	0.44534413278479	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-08 04:00:15	FORECAST	2019	348	63	57.07	41.98	49.525	0.3537	0.3937	2.38	2.7737	F	F	25.07	556.07	255	468.84486811521	0.44344848456478	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-08 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	348	63	52.14	41.8	46.97	0.2045	0.2745	2.62	2.8945	F	F	20.14	532.14	255	468.84486811521	0.26915617578202	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-07 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	52.15	41.82	46.985	0.2045	0.2745	2.71	2.9845	F	F	20.15	551.15	255	468.84486811521	0.26947312380833	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-07 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	54.33	41.65	47.99	0.0944	0.1544	2.65	2.8044	F	F	22.33	556.33	255	468.84486811521	0.34267094617538	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-07 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	61.3	49.52	55.41	0.0984	0.1584	2.77	2.9284	F	F	29.3	560.3	255	468.84486811521	0.60399858523244	95	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-09-07 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	61.32	49.53	55.425	0.0984	0.1684	2.76	2.9284	F	F	29.32	559.32	255	468.84486811521	0.6047379429318	95	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-09-07 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	61.75	49.89	55.82	0.0514	0.1114	2.87	2.9814	F	F	29.75	555.75	255	468.84486811521	0.62053886273104	95	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-09-07 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	348	63	58.98	40.38	49.68	0.105	0.195	2.7	2.895	F	F	26.98	541.98	255	468.84486811521	0.51637838408098	95	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-09-06 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	51.48	41.23	46.355	0.0634	0.1934	2.57	2.7634	F	F	19.48	545.48	255	468.84486811521	0.24865915509425	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2019-09-06 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	57.36	47.53	52.445	0.0323	0.1423	2.79	2.9323	F	F	25.36	549.36	255	468.84486811521	0.45445989315509	95	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-09-06 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	52.44	46.69	49.565	0.0191	0.0791	2.21	2.2891	F	F	20.44	540.44	255	468.84486811521	0.27874509266305	95	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-09-06 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	48.23	46.93	47.58	0.0004	0.0604	2.5	2.5604	F	F	16.23	535.23	255	468.84486811521	0.16090662619969	95	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-09-06 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	348	63	49.35	48.88	49.115	0.0004	0.1104	2.3	2.4104	F	F	17.35	546.35	255	468.84486811521	0.18856665843708	95	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M