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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, September 13, 2019

[ Thursday, September 12, 2019 | Index | Today | Saturday, September 14, 2019 ]

DAY 348 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/14/2019 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.12°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.60°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.36°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.183
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 555

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.09 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.28 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.25 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.53 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 255
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 468.84 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 63

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-09-14 04:00:12OBSERVATION20193486349.1199841.5999445.3599600.0900000000000320.280000000000032.252.53FF17.11998555.11998255468.84486811521 00.1826595527169495 13425240DRYM
2019-09-14 00:00:14FORECAST20193486347.0947.0947.0900.00210.19212.252.4421FF15.09553.09256469.3343470174500.135614295240269513425240DRYM
2019-09-13 12:00:11FORECAST20193486356.346.0351.16500.03440.22442.252.4744FF24.3562.3256469.3343470174500.414444483817789523425245DRYM
2019-09-13 08:00:11FORECAST20193486356.2744.5650.41500.03650.22652.252.4765FF24.27562.27256469.3343470174500.413322782417049523425245DRYM
2019-09-13 04:00:12FORECAST20193486356.7543.750.22500.09440.28442.252.5344FF24.75562.75256469.3343470174500.431348774274019523425245DRYM
2019-09-13 00:00:13FORECAST20193486356.8141.194900.2830.3332.252.583FF24.81546.81255468.8448681152100.433612922017399523425245DRYM
2019-09-12 20:00:10FORECAST20193486356.3741.2848.82500.35580.40582.252.6558FF24.37561.37255468.8448681152100.417064486411179523425245DRYM
2019-09-12 16:00:11FORECAST20193486357.2243.4150.31500.36130.41132.252.6613FF25.22562.22255468.8448681152100.449139137606189523425245DRYM
2019-09-12 12:00:11FORECAST20193486356.3244.750.5100.23780.28782.252.5378FF24.32561.32255468.8448681152100.415192673107099523425245DRYM
2019-09-12 08:00:11FORECAST2019348635644.5850.2900.28240.34242.252.5924FF24561255468.8448681152100.40326033714349523425245DRYM
2019-09-12 04:00:12FORECAST20193486355.7344.5550.1400.27550.29552.252.5455FF23.73560.73255468.8448681152100.393261529152599523425245DRYM
2019-09-12 00:00:12FORECAST20193486355.5344.3349.9300.27580.28582.252.5358FF23.53550.53255468.8448681152100.385899725665289523425245DRYM
2019-09-11 20:00:10FORECAST20193486355.6944.2349.9600.20710.22712.252.4771FF23.69561.69255468.8448681152100.391786019499949523425245DRYM
2019-09-11 16:00:11FORECAST20193486356.8243.8150.31500.16530.18532.252.4353FF24.82562.82255468.8448681152100.433990493928339523425245DRYM
2019-09-11 12:00:11FORECAST20193486356.5142.3249.41500.22680.23682.252.4868FF24.51562.51255468.8448681152100.422315441268489523425245DRYM
2019-09-11 08:00:11FORECAST20193486356.4844.2250.3500.17760.18762.252.4376FF24.48561.48255468.8448681152100.421189040338729523425245DRYM
2019-09-11 04:00:11FORECAST20193486355.5944.7150.1500.21210.24212.252.4921FF23.59560.59255468.8448681152100.38810408999849523425245DRYM
2019-09-11 00:00:13FORECAST20193486355.3741.6548.5100.1680.2081.862.068FF23.37554.37255468.8448681152100.380039577989529523425245DRYM
2019-09-10 20:00:11FORECAST20193486354.4844.0249.2500.1820.2122.062.272FF22.48562.48255468.8448681152100.347976581667139523425245DRYM
2019-09-10 16:00:11FORECAST2019348635543.0849.0400.17350.20352.062.2635FF23563255468.8448681152100.366595019821379523425245DRYM
2019-09-10 12:00:11FORECAST20193486352.3843.8848.1300.22620.26622.062.3262FF20.38561.38255468.8448681152100.276814092302229523425245DRYM
2019-09-10 08:00:11FORECAST20193486352.3443.247.7700.19650.24652.12.3465FF20.34555.34255468.8448681152100.275530404902969523425245DRYM
2019-09-10 04:00:12FORECAST20193486355.1442.5648.8500.18240.22242.142.3624FF23.14558.14255468.8448681152100.37166394360219523425245DRYM
2019-09-10 00:00:12FORECAST20193486353.3241.947.6100.37690.39691.161.5569FF21.32556.32255468.8448681152100.307793157237889523425245DRYM
2019-09-09 20:00:11FORECAST20193486353.3341.9147.6200.39030.42031.652.0703FF21.33562.33255468.8448681152100.308130767984159523425245DRYM
2019-09-09 16:00:11FORECAST20193486351.7942.3347.0600.1930.2231.571.793FF19.79560.79255468.8448681152100.258182007686939523425245DRYM
2019-09-09 12:00:11FORECAST20193486355.1342.7848.95500.11990.14991.591.7399FF23.13555.13255468.8448681152100.371301127051039523425245DRYM
2019-09-09 08:00:11FORECAST20193486355.1442.7748.95500.11990.13991.92.0399FF23.14554.14255468.8448681152100.37166394360219523425245DRYM
2019-09-09 04:00:12FORECAST20193486355.444.1949.79500.12410.14411.882.0241FF23.4560.4255468.8448681152100.381136305934159523425245DRYM
2019-09-09 00:00:14FORECAST20193486357.2744.1850.72500.13380.15382.022.1738FF25.27550.27255468.8448681152100.451038408385519523425245DRYM
2019-09-08 20:00:11FORECAST20193486357.2944.1950.7400.13380.15382.422.5738FF25.29563.29255468.8448681152100.451798433146969523425245DRYM
2019-09-08 16:00:11FORECAST20193486355.9643.8349.89500.3110.3412.372.711FF23.96565.96255468.8448681152100.401774864069379523425245DRYM
2019-09-08 12:00:11FORECAST20193486357.141.4549.27500.25390.34392.592.9339FF25.1551.1255468.8448681152100.444585721048959523425245DRYM
2019-09-08 08:00:11FORECAST20193486357.1241.4749.29500.25390.34392.492.8339FF25.12546.12255468.8448681152100.445344132784799523425245DRYM
2019-09-08 04:00:15FORECAST20193486357.0741.9849.52500.35370.39372.382.7737FF25.07556.07255468.8448681152100.443448484564789523425245DRYM
2019-09-08 00:00:13FORECAST20193486352.1441.846.9700.20450.27452.622.8945FF20.14532.14255468.8448681152100.269156175782029523425245DRYM
2019-09-07 20:00:11FORECAST20193486352.1541.8246.98500.20450.27452.712.9845FF20.15551.15255468.8448681152100.269473123808339523425245DRYM
2019-09-07 16:00:11FORECAST20193486354.3341.6547.9900.09440.15442.652.8044FF22.33556.33255468.8448681152100.342670946175389523425245DRYM
2019-09-07 12:00:11FORECAST20193486361.349.5255.4100.09840.15842.772.9284FF29.3560.3255468.8448681152100.603998585232449533425250DRYMH
2019-09-07 08:00:11FORECAST20193486361.3249.5355.42500.09840.16842.762.9284FF29.32559.32255468.8448681152100.60473794293189533425250DRYMH
2019-09-07 04:00:11FORECAST20193486361.7549.8955.8200.05140.11142.872.9814FF29.75555.75255468.8448681152100.620538862731049533425250DRYMH
2019-09-07 00:00:13FORECAST20193486358.9840.3849.6800.1050.1952.72.895FF26.98541.98255468.8448681152100.516378384080989533425250DRYMH
2019-09-06 20:00:11FORECAST20193486351.4841.2346.35500.06340.19342.572.7634FF19.48545.48255468.8448681152100.248659155094259513425240DRYM
2019-09-06 16:00:11FORECAST20193486357.3647.5352.44500.03230.14232.792.9323FF25.36549.36255468.8448681152100.454459893155099523425245DRYM
2019-09-06 12:00:11FORECAST20193486352.4446.6949.56500.01910.07912.212.2891FF20.44540.44255468.8448681152100.278745092663059523415222.5DRYL
2019-09-06 08:00:11FORECAST20193486348.2346.9347.5800.00040.06042.52.5604FF16.23535.23255468.8448681152100.160906626199699513415220DRYL
2019-09-06 04:00:11FORECAST20193486349.3548.8849.11500.00040.11042.32.4104FF17.35546.35255468.8448681152100.188566658437089513425240DRYM