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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, September 12, 2019

[ Wednesday, September 11, 2019 | Index | Today | Friday, September 13, 2019 ]

DAY 347 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/13/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 64.24°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.59°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 54.41°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.689
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 571

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.18 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.58 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.86 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.44 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 254
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 468.35 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 62

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 75.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-09-13 04:00:12OBSERVATION20193476264.2399844.5899254.4149500.179999999999950.579999999999951.862.44FF32.23998571.23998254468.35352565462 00.6892280584968894 33435275DRYVH
2019-09-13 00:00:13FORECAST20193476248.148.148.100.04490.44491.862.3049FF16.1555.1255468.8448681152100.158643882119249413425240DRYM
2019-09-12 12:00:11FORECAST20193476262.9846.3554.66500.04360.44361.862.3036FF30.98569.98255468.8448681152100.646937294577659433425250DRYMH
2019-09-12 08:00:11FORECAST20193476263.1442.7752.95500.04570.44571.862.3057FF31.14570.14255468.8448681152100.652423253863479433425250DRYMH
2019-09-12 04:00:12FORECAST20193476263.1742.5952.8800.01220.41221.862.2722FF31.17570.17255468.8448681152100.653448370451739433425250DRYMH
2019-09-12 00:00:12FORECAST20193476263.8344.3454.08500.01140.40141.862.2614FF31.83559.83254468.3535256546200.675705559943149433425250DRYMH
2019-09-11 20:00:10FORECAST20193476263.8545.0754.4600.00810.40811.862.2681FF31.85570.85254468.3535256546200.676370819058559433425250DRYMH
2019-09-11 16:00:11FORECAST20193476263.7845.1754.47500.00670.40671.862.2667FF31.78570.78254468.3535256546200.67403996200149433425250DRYMH
2019-09-11 12:00:11FORECAST20193476263.5245.1154.31500.00320.40321.862.2632FF31.52570.52254468.3535256546200.665323440592039433425250DRYMH
2019-09-11 08:00:11FORECAST20193476263.4945.6554.5700.00370.40371.862.2637FF31.49570.49254468.3535256546200.66431182085979433425250DRYMH
2019-09-11 04:00:11FORECAST20193476263.4445.6354.53500.00660.41661.862.2766FF31.44570.44254468.3535256546200.66262314349139433425250DRYMH
2019-09-11 00:00:13FORECAST20193476263.2745.9254.59500.00740.03741.861.8974FF31.27564.27254468.3535256546200.656857286056989433415225DRYL
2019-09-10 20:00:11FORECAST20193476263.4245.6654.5400.0040.2341.862.094FF31.42573.42254468.3535256546200.661946752510559433425250DRYMH
2019-09-10 16:00:11FORECAST20193476263.0345.5354.2800.00460.23461.862.0946FF31.03573.03254468.3535256546200.648655002813889433425250DRYMH
2019-09-10 12:00:11FORECAST20193476263.7945.754.74500.00220.24221.862.1022FF31.79573.79254468.3535256546200.674373360703629433425250DRYMH
2019-09-10 08:00:11FORECAST20193476263.7745.7254.74500.00240.29241.862.1524FF31.77567.77254468.3535256546200.67370642419549433425250DRYMH
2019-09-10 04:00:12FORECAST20193476263.3445.4354.38500.00340.32341.862.1834FF31.34568.34254468.3535256546200.659235978983519433425250DRYMH
2019-09-10 00:00:12FORECAST20193476263.4145.4254.41500.00220.35220.831.1822FF31.41568.41254468.3535256546200.661608360822539433425250DRYMH
2019-09-09 20:00:11FORECAST20193476263.3245.2154.26500.00170.49171.191.6817FF31.32574.32254468.3535256546200.658556992800479433435275DRYVH
2019-09-09 16:00:11FORECAST20193476263.5345.0854.30500.0020.4121.191.602FF31.53573.53254468.3535256546200.665660381303359433425250DRYMH
2019-09-09 12:00:11FORECAST20193476258.8446.8752.85500.00440.43441.191.6244FF26.84564.84254468.3535256546200.49759070297569423425245DRYM
2019-09-09 08:00:11FORECAST20193476258.3945.1551.7700.00450.38451.541.9245FF26.39564.39254468.3535256546200.480985300889719423425245DRYM
2019-09-09 04:00:12FORECAST20193476263.2445.3154.27500.00390.37391.531.9039FF31.24570.24254468.3535256546200.655835934838529433425250DRYMH
2019-09-09 00:00:14FORECAST20193476262.9544.9553.9500.00150.44151.62.0415FF30.95557.95254468.3535256546200.645905228646999433425250DRYMH
2019-09-08 20:00:11FORECAST20193476262.6543.7153.1800.00140.42142.022.4414FF30.65570.65254468.3535256546200.635526724007969433425250DRYMH
2019-09-08 16:00:11FORECAST20193476262.8944.153.49500.00180.38182.022.4018FF30.89574.89254468.3535256546200.643837886403029433425250DRYMH
2019-09-08 12:00:11FORECAST20193476260.2643.2751.76500.0030.3732.312.683FF28.26559.26254468.3535256546200.549881958628229433425250DRYMH
2019-09-08 08:00:11FORECAST20193476260.2943.2551.7700.0030.3432.242.583FF28.29554.29254468.3535256546200.550980603841579433425250DRYMH
2019-09-08 04:00:15FORECAST20193476260.143.2851.6900.00130.29132.132.4213FF28.1564.1254468.3535256546200.54401626284549433425250DRYMH
2019-09-08 00:00:13FORECAST20193476261.643.7352.66500.00150.28152.412.6915FF29.6544.6254468.3535256546200.598459887534459433425250DRYMH
2019-09-07 20:00:11FORECAST20193476261.6143.7252.66500.00150.30152.482.7815FF29.61563.61254468.3535256546200.598817715055279433425250DRYMH
2019-09-07 16:00:11FORECAST20193476261.8443.5352.68500.00150.27152.442.7115FF29.84566.84254468.3535256546200.607024303844159433425250DRYMH
2019-09-07 12:00:11FORECAST20193476263.8343.153.46500.00170.42172.412.8317FF31.83563.83254468.3535256546200.675705559943149433425250DRYMH
2019-09-07 08:00:11FORECAST20193476263.8743.0853.47500.00170.61172.222.8317FF31.87562.87254468.3535256546200.677035515436119433435275DRYVH
2019-09-07 04:00:11FORECAST20193476262.7643.1352.94500.00140.49142.442.9314FF30.76558.76254468.3535256546200.639344191006439433435275DRYVH
2019-09-07 00:00:13FORECAST20193476259.7742.5251.14500.00470.55472.242.7947FF27.77547.77254468.3535256546200.531889343902759433435275DRYVH
2019-09-06 20:00:11FORECAST20193476260.5441.2150.87500.00710.66712.032.6971FF28.54558.54254468.3535256546200.560119996240459433435275DRYVH
2019-09-06 16:00:11FORECAST20193476260.8742.4951.6800.00670.55672.342.8967FF28.87556.87254468.3535256546200.572134335949089433435275DRYVH
2019-09-06 12:00:11FORECAST20193476258.7843.8351.30500.02460.33461.942.2746FF26.78552.78254468.3535256546200.495375779541819423425245DRYM
2019-09-06 08:00:11FORECAST20193476258.843.851.300.02460.33462.232.5646FF26.8551.8254468.3535256546200.496114074886229423425245DRYM
2019-09-06 04:00:11FORECAST20193476259.4244.2151.81500.02490.40492.012.4149FF27.42562.42254468.3535256546200.518995291228919433425250DRYMH
2019-09-06 00:00:13FORECAST20193476260.8644.3952.62500.14970.48971.822.3097FF28.86546.86254468.3535256546200.571771187666459433425250DRYMH
2019-09-05 20:00:12FORECAST20193476260.1844.8352.50500.11490.40491.31.7049FF28.18570.18254468.3535256546200.546950391222119433425250DRYMH
2019-09-05 16:00:11FORECAST20193476262.2447.6854.9600.02210.23211.331.5621FF30.24571.24254468.3535256546200.621182015330559433425250DRYMH
2019-09-05 12:00:11FORECAST20193476253.5444.9249.2300.0020.0421.21.242FF21.54552.54254468.3535256546200.309774277535339423415222.5DRYL
2019-09-05 08:00:11FORECAST20193476246.8144.9445.87500.00170.04171.041.0817FF14.81547.81254468.3535256546200.131457132006439413415220DRYL
2019-09-05 04:00:12FORECAST20193476243.7842.8943.33500.00110.14111.151.2911FF11.78552.78254468.3535256546200.0807001544314769413425240DRYM