morageology.com :: DFH V2

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 31, 2019

[ Friday, August 30, 2019 | Index | Today | Sunday, September 1, 2019 ]

DAY 335 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/01/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 65.66°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 50.67°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 58.16°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.740 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 34 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 547 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.43 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.79 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 1.22 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 242 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 462.31 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 50 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 4 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 55.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-09-01 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2019	335	50	65.66	50.66996	58.16498	0	0.43	0.79	1.22	F	F	33.66	546.66	242	462.30944875246	0.7397998617905	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-09-01 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	335	50	52.5	52.5	52.5	0.0041	0.4341	0.79	1.2241	F	F	20.5	533.5	243	462.82371512226	0.25987624578694	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-31 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	64.09	51.28	57.685	0.0094	0.4394	0.79	1.2294	F	F	32.09	545.09	243	462.82371512226	0.68766531411353	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-31 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	64.13	51.2	57.665	0.0111	0.4411	0.79	1.2311	F	F	32.13	545.13	243	462.82371512226	0.68904800767304	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-31 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	335	50	63.23	52.13	57.68	0.0237	0.4537	0.79	1.2437	F	F	31.23	544.23	243	462.82371512226	0.65732504000105	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-31 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	335	50	64.88	49.3	57.09	0.0219	0.4019	0.79	1.1919	F	F	32.88	535.88	242	462.30944875246	0.71446383577841	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-30 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	64.71	48.7	56.705	0.0121	0.4021	0.79	1.1921	F	F	32.71	548.71	242	462.30944875246	0.70879012312421	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-30 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	65.03	51.37	58.2	0.0185	0.4085	0.79	1.1985	F	F	33.03	549.03	242	462.30944875246	0.71942598613338	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-30 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	64.46	51.08	57.77	0.0157	0.4057	0.79	1.1957	F	F	32.46	548.46	242	462.30944875246	0.70035222787235	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-30 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	64.27	50.9	57.585	0.0218	0.4118	0.79	1.2018	F	F	32.27	542.27	242	462.30944875246	0.69386637184374	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-30 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	335	50	64.06	50.53	57.295	0.0225	0.4225	0.79	1.2125	F	F	32.06	548.06	242	462.30944875246	0.68662655695961	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-30 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	335	50	63.3	50.77	57.035	0.0662	0.0762	0.79	0.8662	F	F	31.3	537.3	242	462.30944875246	0.65983629863863	93	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-29 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	62.74	50.66	56.7	0.0579	0.1779	0.79	0.9679	F	F	30.74	548.74	242	462.30944875246	0.63955671708466	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-29 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	59.03	50.68	54.855	0.0586	0.1786	0.79	0.9686	F	F	27.03	545.03	242	462.30944875246	0.49785100495273	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-29 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	335	50	64.01	49.84	56.925	0.0794	0.1894	0.79	0.9794	F	F	32.01	549.01	242	462.30944875246	0.6848920066299	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-29 08:00:10	FORECAST	2019	335	50	63.03	49.61	56.32	0.0866	0.2866	0.79	1.0766	F	F	31.03	548.03	242	462.30944875246	0.65011195760608	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-29 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	62.9	49.69	56.295	0.0724	0.1724	0.79	0.9624	F	F	30.9	543.9	242	462.30944875246	0.6453940511068	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-29 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	335	50	64.24	50.63	57.435	0.0439	0.2039	0.79	0.9939	F	F	32.24	529.24	242	462.30944875246	0.69283664388909	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-28 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	64.32	49.96	57.14	0.0421	0.2321	0.8	1.0321	F	F	32.32	547.32	242	462.30944875246	0.69557918609093	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-28 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	65.58	49.76	57.67	0.0062	0.2062	0.8	1.0062	F	F	33.58	548.58	242	462.30944875246	0.73725553573903	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-28 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	68.89	49.61	59.25	0.006	0.116	0.8	0.916	F	F	36.89	555.89	242	462.30944875246	0.8311149319335	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2019-08-28 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	63.07	49.9	56.485	0.0026	0.0926	0.8	0.8926	F	F	31.07	550.07	242	462.30944875246	0.65155901367133	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-28 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	67.29	49.87	58.58	0.0029	0.1029	0.8	0.9029	F	F	35.29	554.29	242	462.30944875246	0.78875294569204	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-28 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	335	50	65.82	49.25	57.535	0.0021	0.1421	0.8	0.9421	F	F	33.82	539.82	242	462.30944875246	0.74485020181061	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-27 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	65.64	49.06	57.35	0.0018	0.0818	0.8	0.8818	F	F	33.64	554.64	242	462.30944875246	0.73916497117154	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-27 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	67.79	50.85	59.32	0.0017	0.1017	0.8	0.9017	F	F	35.79	550.79	242	462.30944875246	0.80261430212123	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-27 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	70.95	52.45	61.7	0.0027	0.0927	0.8	0.8927	F	F	38.95	561.95	242	462.30944875246	0.87700332006471	93	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2019-08-27 08:00:10	FORECAST	2019	335	50	68.81	50.5	59.655	0.0038	0.1138	0.79	0.9038	F	F	36.81	548.81	242	462.30944875246	0.82913570027467	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2019-08-27 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	335	50	70.04	51.69	60.865	0.0029	0.1129	0.8	0.9129	F	F	38.04	556.04	242	462.30944875246	0.85793427801587	93	5	3	4	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2019-08-27 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	335	50	66	49.69	57.845	0.0026	0.0526	0.8	0.8526	F	F	34	547	242	462.30944875246	0.7504700367785	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-26 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	66.01	49.71	57.86	0.0026	0.0326	0.8	0.8326	F	F	34.01	561.01	242	462.30944875246	0.75078031278497	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-26 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	64.55	48.81	56.68	0.0035	0.0235	0.79	0.8135	F	F	32.55	560.55	242	462.30944875246	0.7034026102868	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-26 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	68.73	55.38	62.055	0.0002	0.0002	0.79	0.7902	F	F	36.73	564.73	242	462.30944875246	0.82714172535996	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-26 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	68.76	55.37	62.065	0.0002	0.0002	0.79	0.7902	F	F	36.76	559.76	242	462.30944875246	0.82789119290952	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-26 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	71.08	52.99	62.035	0.0002	0.0002	0.79	0.7902	F	F	39.08	570.08	242	462.30944875246	0.8795740373175	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-26 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	335	50	66.76	51.74	59.25	0.0069	0.0169	0.79	0.8069	F	F	34.76	557.76	242	462.30944875246	0.77345621795547	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-25 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	66.78	51.76	59.27	0.0069	0.0269	0.81	0.8369	F	F	34.78	572.78	242	462.30944875246	0.77404455612433	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-25 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	63.53	52.08	57.805	0.007	0.027	0.81	0.837	F	F	31.53	570.53	242	462.30944875246	0.66803731022258	93	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-25 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	69.2	51.62	60.41	0.0038	0.0338	0.81	0.8438	F	F	37.2	572.2	242	462.30944875246	0.83864502345077	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-25 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	69.24	51.61	60.425	0.0038	0.0238	0.8	0.8238	F	F	37.24	558.24	242	462.30944875246	0.83960048937649	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-25 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	335	50	70.02	53.06	61.54	0.0038	0.0438	0.81	0.8538	F	F	38.02	574.02	242	462.30944875246	0.85749390918496	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-25 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	335	50	67.31	50.66	58.985	0.0323	0.0923	0.82	0.9123	F	F	35.31	570.31	242	462.30944875246	0.78931810094766	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-24 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	67.33	55.09	61.21	0.0189	0.0789	0.86	0.9389	F	F	35.33	582.33	242	462.30944875246	0.78988236992477	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-24 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	62.39	53.72	58.055	0.0156	0.0256	0.85	0.8756	F	F	30.39	575.39	242	462.30944875246	0.62667530543699	93	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-24 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	60.41	54.36	57.385	0.0047	0.0747	0.83	0.9047	F	F	28.41	574.41	242	462.30944875246	0.55152332950691	93	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-24 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	335	50	58.24	54.35	56.295	0.0013	0.0713	0.82	0.8913	F	F	26.24	566.24	242	462.30944875246	0.4670804991099	93	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-24 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	335	50	59.09	58.03	58.56	0.0008	0.0708	0.83	0.9008	F	F	27.09	569.09	242	462.30944875246	0.50019083831368	93	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L