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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 30, 2019

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DAY 334 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/31/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 63.85°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 52.08°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 57.97°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.644 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 32 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 549 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.06 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.43 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.79 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 1.22 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 241 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 461.79 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 49 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 3 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 50.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-08-31 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2019	334	49	63.84992	52.08008	57.965	0.060000000000002	0.43	0.79	1.22	F	F	31.84992	548.84992	241	461.79322445274	0.64405708644025	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-31 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	334	49	53.81	53.81	53.81	0.0082	0.3782	0.79	1.1682	F	F	21.81	538.81	242	462.30944875246	0.26161378867925	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-30 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	66.65	53.57	60.11	0.0181	0.3881	0.79	1.1781	F	F	34.65	551.65	242	462.30944875246	0.7422770261491	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-30 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	61.38	52.72	57.05	0.0172	0.3872	0.79	1.1772	F	F	29.38	546.38	242	462.30944875246	0.54832216027665	93	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-30 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	334	49	66.57	52.87	59.72	0.0332	0.4032	0.79	1.1932	F	F	34.57	551.57	242	462.30944875246	0.73967724388644	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-30 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	334	49	67.31	52.25	59.78	0.0127	0.0127	0.79	0.8027	F	F	35.31	542.31	241	461.79322445274	0.76320075274943	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-29 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	67.36	51.35	59.355	0.036	0.116	0.79	0.906	F	F	35.36	554.36	241	461.79322445274	0.76474696644544	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-29 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	66.93	52.59	59.76	0.0357	0.1157	0.79	0.9057	F	F	34.93	553.93	241	461.79322445274	0.75126914166754	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-29 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	66.37	52.09	59.23	0.032	0.112	0.79	0.902	F	F	34.37	553.37	241	461.79322445274	0.73311926313892	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-29 08:00:10	FORECAST	2019	334	49	66.57	52.36	59.465	0.0267	0.1967	0.79	0.9867	F	F	34.57	552.57	241	461.79322445274	0.73967724388644	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-29 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	67.43	51.65	59.54	0.0243	0.1043	0.79	0.8943	F	F	35.43	549.43	241	461.79322445274	0.76690228438582	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-29 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	334	49	67.21	52.22	59.715	0.0248	0.1648	0.79	0.9548	F	F	35.21	533.21	241	461.79322445274	0.76009165585113	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-28 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	67.21	52.18	59.695	0.022	0.202	0.79	0.992	F	F	35.21	551.21	241	461.79322445274	0.76009165585113	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-28 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	67.37	51.81	59.59	0.0188	0.2088	0.79	0.9988	F	F	35.37	551.37	241	461.79322445274	0.7650555399853	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-28 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	67.91	52.01	59.96	0.0097	0.1197	0.79	0.9097	F	F	35.91	554.91	241	461.79322445274	0.78138305615983	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-28 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	67.53	52.21	59.87	0.0099	0.0999	0.79	0.8899	F	F	35.53	554.53	241	461.79322445274	0.76996223323411	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-28 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	67.56	51.79	59.675	0.0072	0.1072	0.79	0.8972	F	F	35.56	554.56	241	461.79322445274	0.77087582293452	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-28 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	334	49	68.73	51.5	60.115	0.0146	0.1546	0.79	0.9446	F	F	36.73	541.73	241	461.79322445274	0.80488609777256	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2019-08-27 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	68.97	51.24	60.105	0.0043	0.0843	0.8	0.8843	F	F	36.97	556.97	241	461.79322445274	0.81146387481645	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-27 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	69.34	51.48	60.41	0.0059	0.0959	0.8	0.8959	F	F	37.34	551.34	241	461.79322445274	0.82133352079182	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2019-08-27 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	71.03	51.39	61.21	0.0252	0.0852	0.8	0.8852	F	F	39.03	559.03	241	461.79322445274	0.86218993118411	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-27 08:00:10	FORECAST	2019	334	49	65.81	51.9	58.855	0.003	0.113	0.79	0.903	F	F	33.81	547.81	241	461.79322445274	0.71432428923173	93	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-27 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	334	49	70.23	52.66	61.445	0.0156	0.1056	0.8	0.9056	F	F	38.23	554.23	241	461.79322445274	0.84371535176453	93	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2019-08-27 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	334	49	69.89	53.16	61.525	0.0029	0.0529	0.8	0.8529	F	F	37.89	548.89	241	461.79322445274	0.83539232443865	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-26 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	69.9	53.13	61.515	0.0023	0.0323	0.8	0.8323	F	F	37.9	562.9	241	461.79322445274	0.83564113577588	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-26 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	70.24	54.16	62.2	0.0021	0.0221	0.79	0.8121	F	F	38.24	564.24	241	461.79322445274	0.84395588609511	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-26 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	73.26	53.88	63.57	0.0032	0.0032	0.79	0.7932	F	F	41.26	564.26	241	461.79322445274	0.90563523339145	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-26 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	73.29	53.85	63.57	0.0032	0.0032	0.79	0.7932	F	F	41.29	559.29	241	461.79322445274	0.90614158124069	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-26 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	73.14	53.44	63.29	0.0032	0.0032	0.79	0.7932	F	F	41.14	567.14	241	461.79322445274	0.90358976024133	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-26 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	334	49	71.59	53.99	62.79	0.0008	0.0108	0.79	0.8008	F	F	39.59	558.59	241	461.79322445274	0.87420149259214	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-25 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	71.62	53.97	62.795	0.0008	0.0208	0.81	0.8308	F	F	39.62	573.62	241	461.79322445274	0.87482375623231	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-25 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	71.59	53.99	62.79	0.0008	0.0208	0.81	0.8308	F	F	39.59	574.59	241	461.79322445274	0.87420149259214	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-25 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	69.64	53.97	61.805	0.0045	0.0345	0.81	0.8445	F	F	37.64	570.64	241	461.79322445274	0.8290930015685	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-25 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	68.94	53.84	61.39	0.0045	0.0245	0.8	0.8245	F	F	36.94	556.94	241	461.79322445274	0.81064919508835	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-25 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	334	49	71.32	54.53	62.925	0.0045	0.0445	0.81	0.8545	F	F	39.32	572.32	241	461.79322445274	0.86850426500696	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-25 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	334	49	74.6	54.33	64.465	0.0045	0.0845	0.8	0.8845	F	F	42.6	570.6	241	461.79322445274	0.92634946636708	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-24 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	74.63	54.33	64.48	0.0045	0.0845	0.84	0.9245	F	F	42.63	582.63	241	461.79322445274	0.92676995343397	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-24 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	73.43	55.17	64.3	0.0047	0.0347	0.83	0.8647	F	F	41.43	581.43	241	461.79322445274	0.90847812665908	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-24 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	71.81	52.92	62.365	0.0013	0.0713	0.83	0.9013	F	F	39.81	581.81	241	461.79322445274	0.8787149974214	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-24 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	71.83	52.9	62.365	0.0013	0.0713	0.82	0.8913	F	F	39.83	575.83	241	461.79322445274	0.87911961344503	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-24 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	334	49	71.94	53.44	62.69	0.0013	0.0713	0.83	0.9013	F	F	39.94	577.94	241	461.79322445274	0.88132807321535	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-24 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	334	49	75.04	57.55	66.295	0.0025	0.0025	0.83	0.8325	F	F	43.04	567.04	241	461.79322445274	0.93233470159294	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-23 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	75.06	57.54	66.3	0.0025	0.0025	0.88	0.8825	F	F	43.06	583.06	241	461.79322445274	0.93259758498715	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-23 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	74.4	57.87	66.135	0.0025	0.0325	0.87	0.9025	F	F	42.4	577.4	241	461.79322445274	0.92349907363552	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-23 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	63.27	55.48	59.375	0.0008	0.0308	0.85	0.8808	F	F	31.27	562.27	241	461.79322445274	0.62214478907582	93	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-23 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	58.38	57.26	57.82	0.0008	0.0008	0.87	0.8708	F	F	26.38	551.38	241	461.79322445274	0.42870215931308	93	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-23 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	334	49	58.12	57.05	57.585	0	0	0.86	0.86	F	F	26.12	552.12	241	461.79322445274	0.41848336033138	93	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L