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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, August 29, 2019

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DAY 333 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/30/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 63.76°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 53.29°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 58.52°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.579 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 32 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 546 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.37 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.37 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.79 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 1.16 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 240 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 461.28 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 48 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 3 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 50.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-08-30 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2019	333	48	63.75992	53.29004	58.52498	0.37	0.37	0.79	1.16	F	F	31.75992	545.75992	240	461.27503476881	0.57863079401959	95	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-30 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	333	48	53.67	53.67	53.67	0.0006	0.0006	0.79	0.7906	F	F	21.67	535.67	241	461.79322445274	0.20493939797471	95	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-08-29 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	65.79	53.86	59.825	0.079	0.079	0.79	0.869	F	F	33.79	547.79	241	461.79322445274	0.65693275539266	95	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-29 08:00:10	FORECAST	2019	333	48	64.83	53.57	59.2	0.1668	0.1668	0.79	0.9568	F	F	32.83	546.83	241	461.79322445274	0.62051208041872	95	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-29 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	60.88	53.66	57.27	0.0797	0.0797	0.79	0.8697	F	F	28.88	542.88	241	461.79322445274	0.46277830451917	95	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-29 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	333	48	63.61	54.18	58.895	0.1394	0.1394	0.79	0.9294	F	F	31.61	526.61	240	461.27503476881	0.57267953581952	95	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-28 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	64.57	54.14	59.355	0.1726	0.1826	0.79	0.9726	F	F	32.57	544.57	240	461.27503476881	0.61044514123214	95	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-28 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	65.13	53.98	59.555	0.1802	0.1902	0.79	0.9802	F	F	33.13	545.13	240	461.27503476881	0.63202670769598	95	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-28 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	67.52	53.28	60.4	0.1037	0.1137	0.79	0.9037	F	F	35.52	547.52	240	461.27503476881	0.71884741281883	95	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-28 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	67.96	54.08	61.02	0.0794	0.0894	0.79	0.8794	F	F	35.96	547.96	240	461.27503476881	0.73369023999723	95	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-28 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	68.43	54.8	61.615	0.0852	0.0952	0.79	0.8852	F	F	36.43	548.43	240	461.27503476881	0.74909536910607	95	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2019-08-28 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	333	48	67.64	55.14	61.39	0.1299	0.1399	0.79	0.9299	F	F	35.64	533.64	240	461.27503476881	0.72293476042729	95	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-27 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	66.96	54.28	60.62	0.0787	0.0887	0.79	0.8787	F	F	34.96	548.96	240	461.27503476881	0.69939811383153	95	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-27 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	61.95	53.99	57.97	0.0922	0.1022	0.79	0.8922	F	F	29.95	542.95	240	461.27503476881	0.50597941070452	95	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-27 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	67.15	53.79	60.47	0.062	0.072	0.79	0.862	F	F	35.15	549.15	240	461.27503476881	0.70606481629983	95	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-27 08:00:10	FORECAST	2019	333	48	64.86	53.58	59.22	0.1132	0.1132	0.79	0.9032	F	F	32.86	542.86	240	461.27503476881	0.62166855629114	95	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-27 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	63.87	54.38	59.125	0.0945	0.1045	0.79	0.8945	F	F	31.87	544.87	240	461.27503476881	0.58298922765075	95	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-27 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	333	48	66.77	56.27	61.52	0.0457	0.0557	0.79	0.8457	F	F	34.77	539.77	240	461.27503476881	0.69266404750364	95	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-26 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	67.91	55.82	61.865	0.0286	0.0386	0.79	0.8286	F	F	35.91	553.91	240	461.27503476881	0.7320237065533	95	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-26 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	68.92	55.84	62.38	0.0238	0.0238	0.79	0.8138	F	F	36.92	554.92	240	461.27503476881	0.76464014114195	95	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-26 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	66.47	56.65	61.56	0.0004	0.0004	0.79	0.7904	F	F	34.47	552.47	240	461.27503476881	0.68189863733444	95	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-26 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	66.46	56.41	61.435	0.0002	0.0002	0.79	0.7902	F	F	34.46	547.46	240	461.27503476881	0.681537064191	95	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-26 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	69.83	56.27	63.05	0.0011	0.0011	0.79	0.7911	F	F	37.83	554.83	240	461.27503476881	0.7920479249743	95	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-26 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	333	48	69.5	56.05	62.775	0.0147	0.0147	0.79	0.8047	F	F	37.5	547.5	240	461.27503476881	0.78233307613645	95	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-25 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	69.52	56.97	63.245	0.0151	0.0151	0.81	0.8251	F	F	37.52	562.52	240	461.27503476881	0.78292919475371	95	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-25 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	70.61	56.83	63.72	0.0228	0.0228	0.81	0.8328	F	F	38.61	563.61	240	461.27503476881	0.81396979417879	95	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-25 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	67.63	55.94	61.785	0.0272	0.0272	0.81	0.8372	F	F	35.63	561.63	240	461.27503476881	0.72259526051101	95	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-25 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	65.9	56.55	61.225	0.0151	0.0151	0.8	0.8151	F	F	33.9	548.9	240	461.27503476881	0.66102172811249	95	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-25 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	333	48	66.67	56.96	61.815	0.0415	0.0415	0.81	0.8515	F	F	34.67	561.67	240	461.27503476881	0.6890933624148	95	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-25 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	333	48	71.07	57.28	64.175	0.0626	0.0826	0.8	0.8826	F	F	39.07	557.07	240	461.27503476881	0.82620112372499	95	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-24 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	71.09	57.3	64.195	0.0626	0.0826	0.84	0.9226	F	F	39.09	569.09	240	461.27503476881	0.82672108063254	95	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-24 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	72.39	58.33	65.36	0.0104	0.0304	0.83	0.8604	F	F	40.39	569.39	240	461.27503476881	0.85839154414578	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-24 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	73.01	59.05	66.03	0.0701	0.0701	0.83	0.9001	F	F	41.01	571.01	240	461.27503476881	0.87202449242226	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-24 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	73.04	59.07	66.055	0.0701	0.0701	0.82	0.8901	F	F	41.04	565.04	240	461.27503476881	0.872660262066	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-24 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	333	48	72.63	57.22	64.925	0.0653	0.0653	0.83	0.8953	F	F	40.63	566.63	240	461.27503476881	0.86378086391719	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-24 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	333	48	74.42	60.06	67.24	0.0036	0.0036	0.83	0.8336	F	F	42.42	553.42	240	461.27503476881	0.89956823874884	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-23 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	74.44	60.08	67.26	0.0036	0.0036	0.88	0.8836	F	F	42.44	569.44	240	461.27503476881	0.89992517836247	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-23 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	74.5	60.54	67.52	0.026	0.026	0.87	0.896	F	F	42.5	563.5	240	461.27503476881	0.90099045632958	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-23 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	70.32	55.03	62.675	0.0264	0.0264	0.85	0.8764	F	F	38.32	560.32	240	461.27503476881	0.8059918237292	95	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-23 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	72.2	54.67	63.435	0.0025	0.0025	0.87	0.8725	F	F	40.2	554.2	240	461.27503476881	0.85402415617323	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-23 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	70.99	54.04	62.515	0.0025	0.0025	0.86	0.8625	F	F	38.99	554.99	240	461.27503476881	0.82411140977612	95	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-23 00:00:15	FORECAST	2019	333	48	70.59	57.24	63.915	0.0008	0.0008	0.59	0.5908	F	F	38.59	559.59	240	461.27503476881	0.81342619254281	95	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-22 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	70.41	56.51	63.46	0.0008	0.0008	0.57	0.5708	F	F	38.41	560.41	240	461.27503476881	0.8084897218803	95	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-22 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	74.41	60.83	67.62	0.003	0.003	0.57	0.573	F	F	42.41	570.41	240	461.27503476881	0.89938942211618	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-22 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	66.86	58.17	62.515	0.0004	0.0004	0.55	0.5504	F	F	34.86	568.86	240	461.27503476881	0.69586215077804	95	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-22 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	333	48	61.27	58.71	59.99	0	0	0.56	0.56	F	F	29.27	555.27	240	461.27503476881	0.47850057665619	95	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-22 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	333	48	61.55	61.02	61.285	0	0	0.59	0.59	F	F	29.55	569.55	240	461.27503476881	0.48981046325511	95	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L