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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 23, 2019

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DAY 327 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/24/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 64.72°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 47.32°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 56.02°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.617 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 33 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 550 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.69 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.69 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 1.38 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 234 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.12 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 42 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 3 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 3 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 75.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-08-24 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2019	327	42	64.72004	47.31998	56.02001	0	0.69	0.69	1.38	F	F	32.72004	549.72004	234	458.12420256731	0.61653458439897	92	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2019-08-24 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	327	42	50.2	50.2	50.2	0.0013	0.6913	0.69	1.3813	F	F	18.2	535.2	235	458.65434269338	0.1402064310028	92	1	3	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-23 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	66.59	52.39	59.49	0.0165	0.7065	0.69	1.3965	F	F	34.59	551.59	235	458.65434269338	0.6820882365719	92	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2019-08-23 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	66.37	49.67	58.02	0.026	0.716	0.69	1.406	F	F	34.37	551.37	235	458.65434269338	0.67461893731605	92	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2019-08-23 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	62.18	50.8	56.49	0.0215	0.7115	0.69	1.4015	F	F	30.18	547.18	235	458.65434269338	0.52223395188252	92	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2019-08-23 00:00:15	FORECAST	2019	327	42	67.29	48.19	57.74	0.0036	0.4236	0.69	1.1136	F	F	35.29	549.29	234	458.12420256731	0.70535479767285	92	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-22 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	66.54	50.74	58.64	0.0032	0.4332	0.69	1.1232	F	F	34.54	560.54	234	458.12420256731	0.68039701490728	92	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-22 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	66.86	49.99	58.425	0.002	0.432	0.69	1.122	F	F	34.86	560.86	234	458.12420256731	0.69115466865604	92	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-22 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	66.24	51.69	58.965	0.002	0.432	0.69	1.122	F	F	34.24	560.24	234	458.12420256731	0.67017183605165	92	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-22 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	65.82	50.59	58.205	0.0023	0.4323	0.69	1.1223	F	F	33.82	554.82	234	458.12420256731	0.65564190992516	92	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-22 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	327	42	65.93	50.49	58.21	0.0018	0.4518	0.69	1.1418	F	F	33.93	559.93	234	458.12420256731	0.65947070271245	92	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-22 00:00:12	FORECAST	2019	327	42	65.66	49.81	57.735	0.0008	0.0308	0.69	0.7208	F	F	33.66	550.66	234	458.12420256731	0.65004427577108	92	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-21 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	65.68	50.3	57.99	0.0015	0.3115	0.69	1.0015	F	F	33.68	558.68	234	458.12420256731	0.65074579523473	92	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-21 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	65.58	50.72	58.15	0.0023	0.3223	0.69	1.0123	F	F	33.58	559.58	234	458.12420256731	0.64723309705202	92	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-21 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	65.75	50.45	58.1	0.0017	0.3017	0.69	0.9917	F	F	33.75	559.75	234	458.12420256731	0.65319704868313	92	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-21 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	64.91	51.28	58.095	0.0037	0.4437	0.69	1.1337	F	F	32.91	559.91	234	458.12420256731	0.6233867593798	92	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-21 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	65.32	51.53	58.425	0.0037	0.4437	0.69	1.1337	F	F	33.32	556.32	234	458.12420256731	0.63804183887682	92	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-21 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	327	42	64.81	50.28	57.545	0.0018	0.3318	0.69	1.0218	F	F	32.81	543.81	234	458.12420256731	0.61978428233197	92	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-20 20:00:12	FORECAST	2019	327	42	64.44	50	57.22	0.0013	0.3513	0.7	1.0513	F	F	32.44	556.44	234	458.12420256731	0.60636685191024	92	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-20 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	63.77	49.16	56.465	0.0007	0.3607	0.7	1.0607	F	F	31.77	554.77	234	458.12420256731	0.58175670896478	92	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-20 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	56.98	48.58	52.78	0.0133	0.4233	0.7	1.1233	F	F	24.98	550.98	234	458.12420256731	0.33110533816442	92	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-20 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	58.71	48.58	53.645	0.0019	0.5119	0.7	1.2119	F	F	26.71	553.71	234	458.12420256731	0.39243849358499	92	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-08-20 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	62.94	48.58	55.76	0.0018	0.5018	0.7	1.2018	F	F	30.94	558.94	234	458.12420256731	0.55083039913865	92	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2019-08-20 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	327	42	64.34	49.29	56.815	0.0032	0.5232	0.7	1.2232	F	F	32.34	544.34	234	458.12420256731	0.60271799567327	92	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2019-08-19 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	64.32	49.27	56.795	0.0032	0.5832	0.7	1.2832	F	F	32.32	557.32	234	458.12420256731	0.6019871334805	92	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2019-08-19 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	63.86	48.77	56.315	0.0031	0.4731	0.7	1.1731	F	F	31.86	557.86	234	458.12420256731	0.58508350430405	92	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-19 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	66.6	51.76	59.18	0.0037	0.4837	0.7	1.1837	F	F	34.6	554.6	234	458.12420256731	0.68242602747233	92	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-19 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	66.61	51.74	59.175	0.0037	0.4537	0.71	1.1637	F	F	34.61	550.61	234	458.12420256731	0.68276366668045	92	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-19 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	327	42	68.22	50.48	59.35	0.0037	0.3737	0.69	1.0637	F	F	36.22	561.22	234	458.12420256731	0.73499055919636	92	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2019-08-19 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	327	42	65.41	51.43	58.42	0.0015	0.6715	0.71	1.3815	F	F	33.41	551.41	234	458.12420256731	0.64123276077584	92	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2019-08-18 20:00:12	FORECAST	2019	327	42	65.44	51.42	58.43	0.0015	0.7415	0.73	1.4715	F	F	33.44	560.44	234	458.12420256731	0.64229422860967	92	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2019-08-18 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	68.13	50.61	59.37	0.0015	0.5515	0.72	1.2715	F	F	36.13	571.13	234	458.12420256731	0.73218999972362	92	4	3	4	3	5	1	165	DRY	VH
2019-08-18 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	67.58	50.77	59.175	0.0012	0.4512	0.72	1.1712	F	F	35.58	567.58	234	458.12420256731	0.71475840643176	92	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-18 08:00:13	FORECAST	2019	327	42	67.59	50.79	59.19	0.0012	0.3712	0.72	1.0912	F	F	35.59	568.59	234	458.12420256731	0.71508010494325	92	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-18 04:00:13	FORECAST	2019	327	42	65.91	50.38	58.145	0.0012	0.2112	0.73	0.9412	F	F	33.91	563.91	234	458.12420256731	0.65877576493059	92	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-08-18 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	327	42	68.06	51.27	59.665	0.002	0.222	0.64	0.862	F	F	36.06	563.06	234	458.12420256731	0.73000153920329	92	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2019-08-17 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	67.58	51.21	59.395	0.0025	0.1425	0.65	0.7925	F	F	35.58	574.58	234	458.12420256731	0.71475840643176	92	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-08-17 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	64.56	51.63	58.095	0.0025	0.0725	0.68	0.7525	F	F	32.56	569.56	234	458.12420256731	0.61073315838656	92	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-17 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	64.86	52.1	58.48	0.0008	0.0308	0.68	0.7108	F	F	32.86	569.86	234	458.12420256731	0.62158684136496	92	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-17 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	64.86	52.11	58.485	0.0008	0.0308	0.68	0.7108	F	F	32.86	562.86	234	458.12420256731	0.62158684136496	92	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	327	42	67	51.97	59.485	0.0008	0.0008	0.69	0.6908	F	F	35	579	234	458.12420256731	0.6958108183806	92	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-17 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	327	42	73.49	55.36	64.425	0.0014	0.0314	0.64	0.6714	F	F	41.49	583.49	234	458.12420256731	0.87023293324711	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-16 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	73.51	55.36	64.435	0.0014	0.0314	0.64	0.6714	F	F	41.51	594.51	234	458.12420256731	0.87063327598413	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-16 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	69.74	53.83	61.785	0.0228	0.6628	0.65	1.3128	F	F	37.74	574.74	234	458.12420256731	0.77994403320659	92	4	3	4	3	5	1	165	DRY	VH
2019-08-16 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	327	42	60.1	52.52	56.31	0.0103	1.0503	0.68	1.7303	F	F	28.1	577.1	234	458.12420256731	0.44382146759974	92	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-08-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	327	42	54.06	52.51	53.285	0.0083	1.0483	0.67	1.7183	F	F	22.06	565.06	234	458.12420256731	0.23776250163155	92	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-08-16 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	327	42	53.48	52.36	52.92	0.0002	1.0902	0.64	1.7302	F	F	21.48	566.48	234	458.12420256731	0.22110143973609	92	1	3	4	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH