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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, August 22, 2019

[ Wednesday, August 21, 2019 | Index | Today | Friday, August 23, 2019 ]

DAY 326 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/23/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.24°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.26°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.25°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.137
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 563

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.27 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.69 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.69 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.38 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 233
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.59 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 41

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-08-23 04:00:11OBSERVATION20193264151.2400243.2600847.2500500.269999999999980.689999999999980.691.38FF19.24002563.24002233457.5920440763 00.13742299149192 13435260DRYH
2019-08-23 00:00:15FORECAST20193264148.1848.1848.1800.00030.42030.691.1103FF16.18560.18234458.1242025673100.0780547155138489213425240DRYM
2019-08-22 12:00:11FORECAST20193264160.1350.1255.12500.00570.42570.691.1157FF28.13572.13234458.1242025673100.442244541293659223425245DRYM
2019-08-22 08:00:11FORECAST20193264155.4746.8751.1700.0080.4280.691.118FF23.47567.47234458.1242025673100.260626721039599223425245DRYM
2019-08-22 04:00:12FORECAST20193264159.9446.9553.44500.02780.44780.691.1378FF27.94571.94234458.1242025673100.434271780307349223425245DRYM
2019-08-22 00:00:12FORECAST20193264160.1944.8852.53500.03310.03310.690.7231FF28.19563.19233457.592044076300.444767281153789223415222.5DRYL
2019-08-21 20:00:11FORECAST20193264160.344.7552.52500.04240.31240.691.0024FF28.3571.3233457.592044076300.449398046547529223425245DRYM
2019-08-21 16:00:10FORECAST20193264161.1946.753.94500.04650.31650.691.0065FF29.19572.19233457.592044076300.487064202712519223425245DRYM
2019-08-21 12:00:11FORECAST20193264161.3545.1853.26500.03250.30250.690.9925FF29.35572.35233457.592044076300.493857744529979223425245DRYM
2019-08-21 08:00:11FORECAST20193264161.4344.753.06500.02340.44340.691.1334FF29.43573.43233457.592044076300.497255306862679223425245DRYM
2019-08-21 04:00:11FORECAST20193264161.1645.3753.26500.0240.4440.691.134FF29.16569.16233457.592044076300.485790771951799223425245DRYM
2019-08-21 00:00:13FORECAST20193264161.3945.3753.3800.02620.32620.691.0162FF29.39557.39233457.592044076300.495556485407219223425245DRYM
2019-08-20 20:00:12FORECAST20193264161.0545.5153.2800.04940.35940.691.0494FF29.05570.05233457.592044076300.481122864005919223425245DRYM
2019-08-20 16:00:11FORECAST20193264160.6245.853.2100.04970.36970.691.0597FF28.62568.62233457.592044076300.462906337949589223425245DRYM
2019-08-20 12:00:11FORECAST20193264160.8945.453.14500.03390.42390.691.1139FF28.89571.89233457.592044076300.474337970149039223425245DRYM
2019-08-20 08:00:11FORECAST20193264161.1945.653.39500.02380.52380.691.2138FF29.19573.19233457.592044076300.487064202712519223435267.5DRYH
2019-08-20 04:00:11FORECAST20193264161.8945.3753.6300.02030.51030.691.2003FF29.89573.89233457.592044076300.51678758208829233435275DRYVH
2019-08-20 00:00:13FORECAST20193264159.9445.0852.5100.02230.53230.691.2223FF27.94557.94233457.592044076300.434271780307349223435267.5DRYH
2019-08-19 20:00:11FORECAST20193264160.245.4352.81500.02770.57770.71.2777FF28.2571.2233457.592044076300.445187958207599223435267.5DRYH
2019-08-19 16:00:11FORECAST20193264159.5545.4552.500.02840.46840.71.1684FF27.55571.55233457.592044076300.417993574266789223425245DRYM
2019-08-19 12:00:11FORECAST20193264157.5244.6251.0700.03140.48140.71.1814FF25.52565.52233457.592044076300.336092946531889223425245DRYM
2019-08-19 08:00:11FORECAST20193264157.5144.0250.76500.04670.44670.711.1567FF25.51561.51233457.592044076300.335704671715579223425245DRYM
2019-08-19 04:00:12FORECAST20193264161.8543.5752.7100.04490.37490.691.0649FF29.85570.85233457.592044076300.515090047767269233425250DRYMH
2019-08-19 00:00:13FORECAST20193264164.9443.4154.17500.02660.66660.711.3766FF32.94563.94233457.592044076300.643117299427669233435275DRYVH
2019-08-18 20:00:12FORECAST20193264164.9644.2454.600.00780.73780.731.4678FF32.96572.96233457.592044076300.643911183560599233435275DRYVH
2019-08-18 16:00:11FORECAST20193264166.7548.4757.6100.00660.54660.721.2666FF34.75580.75233457.592044076300.712092869549339243435282.5DRYVH
2019-08-18 12:00:11FORECAST20193264165.1446.0855.6100.00560.44560.721.1656FF33.14578.14233457.592044076300.651027731501089233425250DRYMH
2019-08-18 08:00:13FORECAST20193264165.1446.0755.60500.00560.36560.721.0856FF33.14579.14233457.592044076300.651027731501089233425250DRYMH
2019-08-18 04:00:13FORECAST20193264163.8546.6655.25500.00860.20860.730.9386FF31.85575.85233457.592044076300.598999720975189233425250DRYMH
2019-08-18 00:00:13FORECAST20193264165.5747.3356.4500.00690.21690.640.8569FF33.57572.57233457.592044076300.667810972326339233425250DRYMH
2019-08-17 20:00:11FORECAST20193264164.3946.555.44500.00810.13810.650.7881FF32.39585.39233457.592044076300.621053490088169233425250DRYMH
2019-08-17 16:00:11FORECAST20193264166.3247.356.8100.00150.07150.680.7515FF34.32583.32233457.592044076300.696278564795559233415225DRYL
2019-08-17 12:00:11FORECAST20193264165.9850.5858.2800.00830.02830.680.7083FF33.98582.98233457.592044076300.683506853152329233415225DRYL
2019-08-17 08:00:11FORECAST20193264165.9950.5858.28500.00830.02830.680.7083FF33.99575.99233457.592044076300.683885730983749233415225DRYL
2019-08-17 04:00:12FORECAST20193264167.8950.8359.3600.00120.00120.690.6912FF35.89589.89233457.592044076300.752030135834349243415227.5DRYL
2019-08-17 00:00:13FORECAST20193264168.1250.6859.400.00120.03120.640.6712FF36.12588.12233457.592044076300.759714139756799243415155DRYH
2019-08-16 20:00:11FORECAST20193264168.1350.6959.4100.00120.03120.640.6712FF36.13599.13233457.592044076300.760045262840199243515160DRYH
2019-08-16 16:00:11FORECAST20193264160.2151.6855.94500.18040.64040.651.2904FF28.21583.21233457.592044076300.445608696989669223435267.5DRYH
2019-08-16 12:00:12FORECAST20193264163.0850.4856.7800.07371.04370.681.7237FF31.08595.08233457.592044076300.5670162388558192334452100DRYVH
2019-08-16 08:00:11FORECAST20193264163.0950.4756.7800.07371.04370.671.7137FF31.09589.09233457.592044076300.5674349176187392334452100DRYVH
2019-08-16 04:00:12FORECAST20193264164.6150.0857.34500.11941.08940.641.7294FF32.61590.61233457.592044076300.6299310471698792334452100DRYVH
2019-08-16 00:00:13FORECAST20193264160.0946.6453.36500.21760.46760.651.1176FF28.09578.09233457.592044076300.440564008430349223425245DRYM
2019-08-15 20:00:11FORECAST20193264160.146.6553.37500.21730.46730.671.1373FF28.1589.1233457.592044076300.44098404252049223425245DRYM
2019-08-15 16:00:11FORECAST20193264157.8745.4951.6800.02750.21750.650.8675FF25.87590.87233457.592044076300.349790108734759223425245DRYM
2019-08-15 12:00:12FORECAST20193264156.9750.1353.5500.01540.08540.660.7454FF24.97585.97233457.592044076300.315007261261169223415222.5DRYL
2019-08-15 08:00:11FORECAST20193264153.0851.5252.300.01280.07280.620.6928FF21.08586.08233457.592044076300.185143363735049213415220DRYL
2019-08-15 04:00:12FORECAST20193264153.0852.6852.8800.00990.06990.630.6999FF21.08591.08233457.592044076300.185143363735049213415220DRYL