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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, August 21, 2019

[ Tuesday, August 20, 2019 | Index | Today | Thursday, August 22, 2019 ]

DAY 325 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/22/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 57.69°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 47.68°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 52.68°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.350
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 26
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 587

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.42 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.42 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.69 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.11 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 232
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.06 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 40

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-08-22 04:00:12OBSERVATION20193254057.6899647.6799852.6849700.420000000000020.420000000000020.691.11FF25.68996586.68996232457.05785953596 00.3499179686953893 23425245DRYM
2019-08-22 00:00:12FORECAST20193254049.4249.4249.4200.00430.00430.690.6943FF17.42578.42233457.592044076300.118467032682819313415220DRYL
2019-08-21 12:00:11FORECAST20193254056.6147.5652.08500.26920.26920.690.9592FF24.61585.61233457.592044076300.312209267341269323425245DRYM
2019-08-21 08:00:11FORECAST20193254058.0147.8952.9500.4220.4220.691.112FF26.01587.01233457.592044076300.36140488702229323425245DRYM
2019-08-21 04:00:11FORECAST20193254053.7847.7150.74500.41520.41520.691.1052FF21.78582.78233457.592044076300.222939603071639313425240DRYM
2019-08-21 00:00:13FORECAST20193254055.7347.8851.80500.29620.29620.690.9862FF23.73570.73232457.0578595359600.28285181232149323425245DRYM
2019-08-20 20:00:12FORECAST20193254056.448.0652.2300.30360.31360.691.0036FF24.4584.4232457.0578595359600.305084556032299323425245DRYM
2019-08-20 16:00:11FORECAST20193254054.8748.1351.500.31290.32290.691.0129FF22.87582.87232457.0578595359600.255506723129899323425245DRYM
2019-08-20 12:00:11FORECAST20193254058.3248.4653.3900.38210.39210.691.0821FF26.32586.32232457.0578595359600.372651925702889323425245DRYM
2019-08-20 08:00:11FORECAST2019325405848.6953.34500.48870.49870.691.1887FF26587232457.0578595359600.361044004888159323435267.5DRYH
2019-08-20 04:00:11FORECAST20193254058.5648.5553.55500.47740.48740.691.1774FF26.56586.56232457.0578595359600.381435052118149323425245DRYM
2019-08-20 00:00:13FORECAST20193254054.7149.1751.9400.50440.51440.691.2044FF22.71572.71232457.0578595359600.250575828408549323435267.5DRYH
2019-08-19 20:00:11FORECAST20193254058.1949.3653.77500.54530.55530.691.2453FF26.19586.19232457.0578595359600.367921564565799323435267.5DRYH
2019-08-19 16:00:11FORECAST20193254058.5148.5553.5300.43840.44840.691.1384FF26.51586.51232457.0578595359600.379600023133819323425245DRYM
2019-08-19 12:00:11FORECAST20193254056.1147.5651.83500.44810.45810.691.1481FF24.11583.11232457.0578595359600.295366208623679323425245DRYM
2019-08-19 08:00:11FORECAST20193254055.8446.8951.36500.40380.42380.691.1138FF23.84578.84232457.0578595359600.286448142158639323425245DRYM
2019-08-19 04:00:12FORECAST20193254055.9346.6951.3100.33240.33240.691.0224FF23.93583.93232457.0578595359600.289406621443029323425245DRYM
2019-08-19 00:00:13FORECAST20193254057.0246.7751.89500.63740.65740.691.3474FF25.02574.02232457.0578595359600.326321600823769323435267.5DRYH
2019-08-18 20:00:12FORECAST20193254054.0847.2750.67500.73430.75430.711.4643FF22.08583.08232457.0578595359600.231660026438759313435260DRYH
2019-08-18 16:00:11FORECAST20193254059.8749.3854.62500.54410.55410.711.2641FF27.87588.87232457.0578595359600.430344430166749323435267.5DRYH
2019-08-18 12:00:11FORECAST20193254057.7348.0452.88500.43770.44770.711.1577FF25.73587.73232457.0578595359600.351347854367489323425245DRYM
2019-08-18 08:00:13FORECAST20193254059.9448.0353.98500.36350.37350.711.0835FF27.94588.94232457.0578595359600.432995481014839323425245DRYM
2019-08-18 04:00:13FORECAST20193254059.4547.8353.6400.19820.21820.710.9282FF27.45587.45232457.0578595359600.414508036132959323425245DRYM
2019-08-18 00:00:13FORECAST20193254058.8947.8253.35500.21460.21460.640.8546FF26.89581.89232457.0578595359600.393611337039089323425245DRYM
2019-08-17 20:00:11FORECAST20193254059.5647.453.4800.13120.13120.650.7812FF27.56595.56232457.0578595359600.418643350725269323425245DRYM
2019-08-17 16:00:11FORECAST20193254056.3847.8152.09500.07110.08110.670.7511FF24.38592.38232457.0578595359600.304409788446329323415222.5DRYL
2019-08-17 12:00:11FORECAST20193254061.9650.3556.15500.01850.03850.660.6985FF29.96591.96232457.0578595359600.510319696904159333415225DRYL
2019-08-17 08:00:11FORECAST20193254061.9850.3456.1600.01850.03850.660.6985FF29.98584.98232457.0578595359600.511088167856289333415225DRYL
2019-08-17 04:00:12FORECAST20193254065.0950.6657.87500.00040.03040.660.6904FF33.09597.09232457.0578595359600.628332917198069333415225DRYL
2019-08-17 00:00:13FORECAST20193254060.6850.3855.5300.03240.04240.630.6724FF28.68594.68232457.0578595359600.461182443321089323415222.5DRYL
2019-08-16 20:00:11FORECAST20193254060.6750.455.53500.03240.03240.640.6724FF28.67605.67232457.0578595359600.460799908381359323515225DRYL
2019-08-16 16:00:11FORECAST20193254056.6750.1353.400.45740.46740.641.1074FF24.67597.67232457.0578595359600.314258013537459323425245DRYM
2019-08-16 12:00:12FORECAST20193254062.1851.3756.77500.97250.99250.661.6525FF30.18607.18232457.0578595359600.5187701432541893335452110DRYVH
2019-08-16 08:00:11FORECAST20193254062.1951.3956.7900.97250.98250.661.6425FF30.19601.19232457.0578595359600.519154082869279333535282.5DRYVH
2019-08-16 04:00:12FORECAST20193254061.0550.7555.900.97490.97490.641.6149FF29.05601.05232457.0578595359600.475358512853489323535275DRYVH
2019-08-16 00:00:13FORECAST20193254061.2947.6654.47500.24550.25550.640.8955FF29.29593.29232457.0578595359600.484571644746289323425245DRYM
2019-08-15 20:00:11FORECAST20193254061.347.6954.49500.24550.25550.660.9155FF29.3604.3232457.0578595359600.484955738269469323525250DRYMH
2019-08-15 16:00:11FORECAST20193254061.6646.9154.28500.18840.18840.650.8384FF29.66607.66232457.0578595359600.498789632988739323525250DRYMH
2019-08-15 12:00:12FORECAST20193254064.2750.5357.400.07160.07160.660.7316FF32.27604.27232457.0578595359600.598101134864129333515227.5DRYL
2019-08-15 08:00:11FORECAST20193254066.3752.8159.5900.05850.05850.620.6785FF34.37608.37232457.0578595359600.673922253058319333515227.5DRYL
2019-08-15 04:00:12FORECAST20193254066.3752.859.58500.05850.05850.630.6885FF34.37613.37232457.0578595359600.673922253058319333515227.5DRYL
2019-08-15 00:00:13FORECAST20193254071.2455.4963.36500.0010.0010.650.651FF39.24605.24232457.0578595359600.821237611044239343515160DRYH
2019-08-14 20:00:11FORECAST20193254067.5854.5461.0600.00070.00070.620.6207FF35.58620.58232457.0578595359600.714764645558549343515230DRYL
2019-08-14 16:00:11FORECAST20193254067.654.5461.0700.00050.00050.610.6105FF35.6618.6232457.0578595359600.715418811345459343515230DRYL
2019-08-14 12:00:12FORECAST20193254064.3956.8860.63500.00070.00070.610.6107FF32.39618.39232457.0578595359600.602566955497679333515227.5DRYL
2019-08-14 08:00:11FORECAST20193254058.2156.8557.5300.00070.00070.610.6107FF26.21612.21232457.0578595359600.368648031119239323515225DRYL
2019-08-14 04:00:15FORECAST20193254056.8454.1955.51500.04830.04830.620.6683FF24.84616.84232457.0578595359600.320093756241519323515225DRYL