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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, August 20, 2019

[ Monday, August 19, 2019 | Index | Today | Wednesday, August 21, 2019 ]

DAY 324 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/21/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 71.50°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 53.77°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 62.63°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.793
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 39
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 596

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.69 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.69 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 231
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.52 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 39

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 55.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-08-21 04:00:11OBSERVATION20193243971.4999253.7699262.634920000.690.69FF39.49992596.49992231456.52164123267 00.7931988524524393 43415155DRYH
2019-08-21 00:00:13FORECAST20193243957.3657.3657.3600.00110.00110.690.6911FF25.36582.36232457.0578595359600.314257710407659323415222.5DRYL
2019-08-20 12:00:11FORECAST20193243970.2456.2263.2300.00870.00870.690.6987FF38.24595.24232457.0578595359600.758531209790369343415155DRYH
2019-08-20 08:00:11FORECAST20193243970.552.9861.7400.00660.00660.690.6966FF38.5595.5232457.0578595359600.765933215831769343415155DRYH
2019-08-20 04:00:11FORECAST20193243969.9151.9360.9200.00880.00880.690.6988FF37.91594.91232457.0578595359600.748956441225899343415155DRYH
2019-08-20 00:00:13FORECAST20193243970.3654.2662.3100.00840.00840.690.6984FF38.36585.36231456.5216412326700.761963198977219343415155DRYH
2019-08-19 20:00:11FORECAST2019324397054.6262.3100.00310.01310.690.7031FF38595231456.5216412326700.751587474436279343415155DRYH
2019-08-19 16:00:11FORECAST20193243969.7552.8361.2900.00470.01470.690.7047FF37.75594.75231456.5216412326700.744242942817369343415155DRYH
2019-08-19 12:00:11FORECAST20193243969.3953.261.29500.00390.01390.690.7039FF37.39594.39231456.5216412326700.733471292738719343415155DRYH
2019-08-19 08:00:11FORECAST20193243969.4254.962.1600.00280.02280.690.7128FF37.42590.42231456.5216412326700.734377604689829343415155DRYH
2019-08-19 04:00:12FORECAST20193243969.4154.6862.04500.00250.00250.690.6925FF37.41595.41231456.5216412326700.73407567422279343415155DRYH
2019-08-19 00:00:13FORECAST20193243969.3554.5261.93500.00370.02370.690.7137FF37.35584.35231456.5216412326700.73226045194039343415155DRYH
2019-08-18 20:00:12FORECAST20193243969.2654.361.7800.00250.04250.690.7325FF37.26596.26231456.5216412326700.729525976804889343415155DRYH
2019-08-18 16:00:11FORECAST20193243969.355.0962.19500.00450.03450.690.7245FF37.3596.3231456.5216412326700.730743017976859343415155DRYH
2019-08-18 12:00:11FORECAST20193243969.753.2361.46500.00160.03160.690.7216FF37.7596.7231456.5216412326700.742760569564439343415155DRYH
2019-08-18 08:00:13FORECAST20193243970.0153.3961.700.00120.03120.690.7212FF38.01596.01231456.5216412326700.751878902927939343415155DRYH
2019-08-18 04:00:13FORECAST20193243969.8154.9262.36500.00180.04180.690.7318FF37.81594.81231456.5216412326700.746015894470179343415155DRYH
2019-08-18 00:00:13FORECAST20193243968.8554.3161.5800.00260.01260.630.6426FF36.85589.85231456.5216412326700.716895254660329343415155DRYH
2019-08-17 20:00:11FORECAST20193243969.9654.6162.28500.00180.00180.650.6518FF37.96602.96231456.5216412326700.750419941178469343515160DRYH
2019-08-17 16:00:11FORECAST20193243970.154.6262.3600.00150.03150.650.6815FF38.1603.1231456.5216412326700.754493544863039343515160DRYH
2019-08-17 12:00:11FORECAST20193243964.9454.459.6700.00160.03160.650.6816FF32.94596.94231456.5216412326700.584643708843999333415225DRYL
2019-08-17 08:00:11FORECAST20193243965.0954.4459.76500.00160.03160.650.6816FF33.09590.09231456.5216412326700.59001848595449333415225DRYL
2019-08-17 04:00:12FORECAST20193243967.4153.2460.32500.00220.04220.650.6922FF35.41599.41231456.5216412326700.670432973145629333515227.5DRYL
2019-08-17 00:00:13FORECAST20193243970.7353.276200.00240.02240.620.6424FF38.73600.73231456.5216412326700.772375170178789343515160DRYH
2019-08-16 20:00:11FORECAST20193243970.7353.0961.9100.00220.01220.630.6422FF38.73611.73231456.5216412326700.772375170178789343515160DRYH
2019-08-16 16:00:11FORECAST20193243969.3952.1960.7900.00250.02250.630.6525FF37.39608.39231456.5216412326700.733471292738719343515160DRYH
2019-08-16 12:00:12FORECAST20193243969.550.9660.2300.00160.05160.630.6816FF37.5611.5231456.5216412326700.73678678142439343515160DRYH
2019-08-16 08:00:11FORECAST20193243969.551.2160.35500.00160.03160.640.6716FF37.5605.5231456.5216412326700.73678678142439343515160DRYH
2019-08-16 04:00:12FORECAST20193243968.9751.0860.02500.00160.01160.630.6416FF36.97606.97231456.5216412326700.720621164961479343515160DRYH
2019-08-16 00:00:13FORECAST20193243970.5355.1762.8500.00180.02180.630.6518FF38.53598.53231456.5216412326700.766779145401329343415155DRYH
2019-08-15 20:00:11FORECAST20193243970.5455.1662.8500.00180.03180.640.6718FF38.54609.54231456.5216412326700.76706074500669343515160DRYH
2019-08-15 16:00:11FORECAST20193243973.6354.2263.92500.00180.02180.630.6518FF41.63612.63231456.5216412326700.844640680208189343515160DRYH
2019-08-15 12:00:12FORECAST20193243971.9652.3162.13500.00090.03090.630.6609FF39.96606.96231456.5216412326700.805086115526239343515160DRYH
2019-08-15 08:00:11FORECAST20193243970.4551.4460.94500.00090.02090.60.6209FF38.45609.45231456.5216412326700.764519570797589343515160DRYH
2019-08-15 04:00:12FORECAST20193243970.4651.4360.94500.00090.02090.610.6309FF38.46614.46231456.5216412326700.764802675516729343515160DRYH
2019-08-15 00:00:13FORECAST20193243972.8452.3862.6100.00150.02150.630.6515FF40.84600.84231456.5216412326700.826637250362579343515160DRYH
2019-08-14 20:00:11FORECAST20193243974.5153.564.00500.00150.00150.620.6215FF42.51619.51231456.5216412326700.863192681683589353515165DRYH
2019-08-14 16:00:11FORECAST20193243974.4953.563.99500.00150.00150.610.6115FF42.49618.49231456.5216412326700.862788570644469353515165DRYH
2019-08-14 12:00:12FORECAST20193243974.2355.8665.04500.00040.00040.610.6104FF42.23621.23231456.5216412326700.857461124255629353515165DRYH
2019-08-14 08:00:11FORECAST20193243974.2255.8465.0300.00040.00040.610.6104FF42.22621.22231456.5216412326700.857253474122119353515165DRYH
2019-08-14 04:00:15FORECAST20193243970.1655.3162.73500.00040.00040.620.6204FF38.16627.16231456.5216412326700.756228393831989343515160DRYH
2019-08-14 00:00:13FORECAST20193243955.1842.6948.93500.36060.72060.621.3406FF23.18579.18231456.5216412326700.246839741634489313435260DRYH
2019-08-13 20:00:11FORECAST20193243955.8345.650.71500.34080.70080.631.3308FF23.83594.83231456.5216412326700.266104281758999323435267.5DRYH
2019-08-13 16:00:11FORECAST20193243956.4744.0850.27500.04760.40760.631.0376FF24.47596.47231456.5216412326700.285788218332719323425245DRYM
2019-08-13 12:00:11FORECAST20193243954.6347.2450.93500.00070.00070.640.6407FF22.63588.63231456.5216412326700.231140296607329313415220DRYL
2019-08-13 08:00:11FORECAST20193243948.8647.2248.0400.00030.00030.650.6503FF16.86584.86231456.5216412326700.102657248972949313415220DRYL
2019-08-13 04:00:13FORECAST20193243949.3748.7649.06500.00030.00030.630.6303FF17.37589.37231456.5216412326700.111318606266639313415220DRYL