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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, August 20, 2019

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DAY 324 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/21/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 71.50°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 53.77°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 62.63°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.793 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 39 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 596 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.69 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.69 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 231 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.52 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 39 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 4 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 1 HS_dry: 55.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-08-21 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2019	324	39	71.49992	53.76992	62.63492	0	0	0.69	0.69	F	F	39.49992	596.49992	231	456.52164123267	0.79319885245243	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-21 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	324	39	57.36	57.36	57.36	0.0011	0.0011	0.69	0.6911	F	F	25.36	582.36	232	457.05785953596	0.31425771040765	93	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-08-20 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	70.24	56.22	63.23	0.0087	0.0087	0.69	0.6987	F	F	38.24	595.24	232	457.05785953596	0.75853120979036	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-20 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	70.5	52.98	61.74	0.0066	0.0066	0.69	0.6966	F	F	38.5	595.5	232	457.05785953596	0.76593321583176	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-20 04:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	69.91	51.93	60.92	0.0088	0.0088	0.69	0.6988	F	F	37.91	594.91	232	457.05785953596	0.74895644122589	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-20 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	324	39	70.36	54.26	62.31	0.0084	0.0084	0.69	0.6984	F	F	38.36	585.36	231	456.52164123267	0.76196319897721	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-19 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	70	54.62	62.31	0.0031	0.0131	0.69	0.7031	F	F	38	595	231	456.52164123267	0.75158747443627	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-19 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	69.75	52.83	61.29	0.0047	0.0147	0.69	0.7047	F	F	37.75	594.75	231	456.52164123267	0.74424294281736	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-19 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	69.39	53.2	61.295	0.0039	0.0139	0.69	0.7039	F	F	37.39	594.39	231	456.52164123267	0.73347129273871	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-19 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	69.42	54.9	62.16	0.0028	0.0228	0.69	0.7128	F	F	37.42	590.42	231	456.52164123267	0.73437760468982	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-19 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	324	39	69.41	54.68	62.045	0.0025	0.0025	0.69	0.6925	F	F	37.41	595.41	231	456.52164123267	0.7340756742227	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-19 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	324	39	69.35	54.52	61.935	0.0037	0.0237	0.69	0.7137	F	F	37.35	584.35	231	456.52164123267	0.7322604519403	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-18 20:00:12	FORECAST	2019	324	39	69.26	54.3	61.78	0.0025	0.0425	0.69	0.7325	F	F	37.26	596.26	231	456.52164123267	0.72952597680488	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-18 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	69.3	55.09	62.195	0.0045	0.0345	0.69	0.7245	F	F	37.3	596.3	231	456.52164123267	0.73074301797685	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-18 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	69.7	53.23	61.465	0.0016	0.0316	0.69	0.7216	F	F	37.7	596.7	231	456.52164123267	0.74276056956443	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-18 08:00:13	FORECAST	2019	324	39	70.01	53.39	61.7	0.0012	0.0312	0.69	0.7212	F	F	38.01	596.01	231	456.52164123267	0.75187890292793	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-18 04:00:13	FORECAST	2019	324	39	69.81	54.92	62.365	0.0018	0.0418	0.69	0.7318	F	F	37.81	594.81	231	456.52164123267	0.74601589447017	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-18 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	324	39	68.85	54.31	61.58	0.0026	0.0126	0.63	0.6426	F	F	36.85	589.85	231	456.52164123267	0.71689525466032	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-17 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	69.96	54.61	62.285	0.0018	0.0018	0.65	0.6518	F	F	37.96	602.96	231	456.52164123267	0.75041994117846	93	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-17 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	70.1	54.62	62.36	0.0015	0.0315	0.65	0.6815	F	F	38.1	603.1	231	456.52164123267	0.75449354486303	93	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-17 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	64.94	54.4	59.67	0.0016	0.0316	0.65	0.6816	F	F	32.94	596.94	231	456.52164123267	0.58464370884399	93	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-17 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	65.09	54.44	59.765	0.0016	0.0316	0.65	0.6816	F	F	33.09	590.09	231	456.52164123267	0.5900184859544	93	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-08-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	324	39	67.41	53.24	60.325	0.0022	0.0422	0.65	0.6922	F	F	35.41	599.41	231	456.52164123267	0.67043297314562	93	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-08-17 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	324	39	70.73	53.27	62	0.0024	0.0224	0.62	0.6424	F	F	38.73	600.73	231	456.52164123267	0.77237517017878	93	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-16 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	70.73	53.09	61.91	0.0022	0.0122	0.63	0.6422	F	F	38.73	611.73	231	456.52164123267	0.77237517017878	93	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-16 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	69.39	52.19	60.79	0.0025	0.0225	0.63	0.6525	F	F	37.39	608.39	231	456.52164123267	0.73347129273871	93	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-16 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	324	39	69.5	50.96	60.23	0.0016	0.0516	0.63	0.6816	F	F	37.5	611.5	231	456.52164123267	0.7367867814243	93	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	69.5	51.21	60.355	0.0016	0.0316	0.64	0.6716	F	F	37.5	605.5	231	456.52164123267	0.7367867814243	93	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-16 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	324	39	68.97	51.08	60.025	0.0016	0.0116	0.63	0.6416	F	F	36.97	606.97	231	456.52164123267	0.72062116496147	93	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-16 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	324	39	70.53	55.17	62.85	0.0018	0.0218	0.63	0.6518	F	F	38.53	598.53	231	456.52164123267	0.76677914540132	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2019-08-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	70.54	55.16	62.85	0.0018	0.0318	0.64	0.6718	F	F	38.54	609.54	231	456.52164123267	0.7670607450066	93	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	73.63	54.22	63.925	0.0018	0.0218	0.63	0.6518	F	F	41.63	612.63	231	456.52164123267	0.84464068020818	93	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-15 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	324	39	71.96	52.31	62.135	0.0009	0.0309	0.63	0.6609	F	F	39.96	606.96	231	456.52164123267	0.80508611552623	93	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-15 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	70.45	51.44	60.945	0.0009	0.0209	0.6	0.6209	F	F	38.45	609.45	231	456.52164123267	0.76451957079758	93	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-15 04:00:12	FORECAST	2019	324	39	70.46	51.43	60.945	0.0009	0.0209	0.61	0.6309	F	F	38.46	614.46	231	456.52164123267	0.76480267551672	93	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	324	39	72.84	52.38	62.61	0.0015	0.0215	0.63	0.6515	F	F	40.84	600.84	231	456.52164123267	0.82663725036257	93	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-14 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	74.51	53.5	64.005	0.0015	0.0015	0.62	0.6215	F	F	42.51	619.51	231	456.52164123267	0.86319268168358	93	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2019-08-14 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	74.49	53.5	63.995	0.0015	0.0015	0.61	0.6115	F	F	42.49	618.49	231	456.52164123267	0.86278857064446	93	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2019-08-14 12:00:12	FORECAST	2019	324	39	74.23	55.86	65.045	0.0004	0.0004	0.61	0.6104	F	F	42.23	621.23	231	456.52164123267	0.85746112425562	93	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2019-08-14 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	74.22	55.84	65.03	0.0004	0.0004	0.61	0.6104	F	F	42.22	621.22	231	456.52164123267	0.85725347412211	93	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2019-08-14 04:00:15	FORECAST	2019	324	39	70.16	55.31	62.735	0.0004	0.0004	0.62	0.6204	F	F	38.16	627.16	231	456.52164123267	0.75622839383198	93	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2019-08-14 00:00:13	FORECAST	2019	324	39	55.18	42.69	48.935	0.3606	0.7206	0.62	1.3406	F	F	23.18	579.18	231	456.52164123267	0.24683974163448	93	1	3	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-08-13 20:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	55.83	45.6	50.715	0.3408	0.7008	0.63	1.3308	F	F	23.83	594.83	231	456.52164123267	0.26610428175899	93	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-08-13 16:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	56.47	44.08	50.275	0.0476	0.4076	0.63	1.0376	F	F	24.47	596.47	231	456.52164123267	0.28578821833271	93	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-08-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	54.63	47.24	50.935	0.0007	0.0007	0.64	0.6407	F	F	22.63	588.63	231	456.52164123267	0.23114029660732	93	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-08-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2019	324	39	48.86	47.22	48.04	0.0003	0.0003	0.65	0.6503	F	F	16.86	584.86	231	456.52164123267	0.10265724897294	93	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2019-08-13 04:00:13	FORECAST	2019	324	39	49.37	48.76	49.065	0.0003	0.0003	0.63	0.6303	F	F	17.37	589.37	231	456.52164123267	0.11131860626663	93	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L