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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, August 19, 2019

[ Sunday, August 18, 2019 | Index | Today | Tuesday, August 20, 2019 ]

DAY 323 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/20/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 64.33°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.67°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 55.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.575
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 585

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.83 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.89 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 230
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 455.98 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 38

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 25.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-08-20 04:00:11OBSERVATION20193233864.3299845.6699254.99995000.060.830.89FF32.32998585.32998230455.98338142343 00.5745486486588792 33415225DRYL
2019-08-20 00:00:13FORECAST20193233854.0254.0254.02000.060.830.89FF22.02575.02231456.5216412326700.209100797658989213415220DRYL
2019-08-19 12:00:11FORECAST20193233864.3253.0758.69500.0060.0660.830.896FF32.32585.32231456.5216412326700.574170168956769233415225DRYL
2019-08-19 08:00:11FORECAST20193233860.3747.9654.16500.01680.07680.830.9068FF28.37581.37231456.5216412326700.422639067201349223415222.5DRYL
2019-08-19 04:00:12FORECAST20193233864.5846.3655.4700.00360.06360.830.8936FF32.58585.58231456.5216412326700.584007064401959233415225DRYL
2019-08-19 00:00:13FORECAST20193233864.8547.4756.1600.02240.08240.830.9124FF32.85574.85230455.9833814234300.594166819631759233415225DRYL
2019-08-18 20:00:12FORECAST20193233864.0645.8554.95500.01620.09620.830.9262FF32.06587.06230455.9833814234300.564286902016329233425250DRYMH
2019-08-18 16:00:11FORECAST20193233863.9546.9555.4500.01490.09490.830.9249FF31.95586.95230455.9833814234300.560093030986999233425250DRYMH
2019-08-18 12:00:11FORECAST20193233863.8745.3554.6100.01260.09260.830.9226FF31.87586.87230455.9833814234300.557038674685769233425250DRYMH
2019-08-18 08:00:13FORECAST20193233863.9146.7855.34500.01270.09270.830.9227FF31.91585.91230455.9833814234300.558566288171949233425250DRYMH
2019-08-18 04:00:13FORECAST20193233863.5545.4554.500.01980.09980.830.9298FF31.55584.55230455.9833814234300.544789116950779233425250DRYMH
2019-08-18 00:00:13FORECAST20193233863.4546.3254.88500.00480.01480.830.8448FF31.45581.45230455.9833814234300.540951820057519233415225DRYL
2019-08-17 20:00:11FORECAST20193233863.3746.3154.8400.00240.02240.830.8524FF31.37593.37230455.9833814234300.537879215579699233415225DRYL
2019-08-17 16:00:11FORECAST20193233863.2345.8154.5200.01020.05020.830.8802FF31.23593.23230455.9833814234300.532496824336229233415225DRYL
2019-08-17 12:00:11FORECAST20193233862.3145.9354.1200.01830.04830.830.8783FF30.31592.31230455.9833814234300.497024386532059223415222.5DRYL
2019-08-17 08:00:11FORECAST20193233862.4545.8654.15500.02190.05190.830.8819FF30.45585.45230455.9833814234300.502427809309189233415225DRYL
2019-08-17 04:00:12FORECAST20193233862.5745.5654.06500.02720.05720.830.8872FF30.57591.57230455.9833814234300.5070589976399233415225DRYL
2019-08-17 00:00:13FORECAST20193233863.346.4254.8600.0050.0350.80.835FF31.3590.3230455.9833814234300.535188824765239233415225DRYL
2019-08-16 20:00:11FORECAST20193233863.4746.5555.0100.00480.03480.810.8448FF31.47601.47230455.9833814234300.541719596353699233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-16 16:00:11FORECAST20193233862.446.4754.43500.01160.04160.810.8516FF30.4599.4230455.9833814234300.500498015110629233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-16 12:00:12FORECAST20193233866.0946.0956.0900.0160.0660.810.876FF34.09602.09230455.9833814234300.639919347276049233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-16 08:00:11FORECAST20193233860.4245.4352.92500.01310.06310.810.8731FF28.42596.42230455.9833814234300.424533367246669223415222.5DRYL
2019-08-16 04:00:12FORECAST20193233865.4945.655.54500.00140.04140.80.8414FF33.49598.49230455.9833814234300.617985715645379233415225DRYL
2019-08-16 00:00:13FORECAST20193233866.344.1655.2300.00520.04520.80.8452FF34.3588.3230455.9833814234300.647492791893679233415225DRYL
2019-08-15 20:00:11FORECAST20193233866.3143.7455.02500.0050.0450.820.865FF34.31599.31230455.9833814234300.647852006651469233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-15 16:00:11FORECAST20193233865.1345.7455.43500.00320.03320.820.8532FF33.13599.13230455.9833814234300.604636210598339233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-15 12:00:12FORECAST20193233863.9846.8555.41500.00080.05080.810.8608FF31.98594.98230455.9833814234300.561237503274599233415225DRYL
2019-08-15 08:00:11FORECAST20193233864.5947.415600.00070.03070.790.8207FF32.59598.59230455.9833814234300.584384399127689233415225DRYL
2019-08-15 04:00:12FORECAST20193233864.5947.415600.00070.03070.80.8307FF32.59603.59230455.9833814234300.584384399127689233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-15 00:00:13FORECAST20193233864.5646.2755.41500.00140.05140.80.8514FF32.56587.56230455.9833814234300.583252162956639233415225DRYL
2019-08-14 20:00:11FORECAST20193233865.6746.6456.15500.00140.02140.80.8214FF33.67604.67230455.9833814234300.624609334200439233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-14 16:00:11FORECAST20193233865.6646.6356.14500.00140.02140.790.8114FF33.66603.66230455.9833814234300.624242296855069233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-14 12:00:12FORECAST20193233869.1648.1158.63500.00110.02110.790.8111FF37.16607.16230455.9833814234300.743854576019399243515160DRYH
2019-08-14 08:00:11FORECAST20193233869.1648.158.6300.00110.01110.80.8111FF37.16607.16230455.9833814234300.743854576019399243515160DRYH
2019-08-14 04:00:15FORECAST20193233869.0348.1758.600.00110.01110.810.8211FF37.03617.03230455.9833814234300.739789258236039243515160DRYH
2019-08-14 00:00:13FORECAST20193233858.4545.2851.86500.35140.38140.81.1814FF26.45584.45230455.9833814234300.351638366516959223425245DRYM
2019-08-13 20:00:11FORECAST20193233858.4245.3151.86500.35140.36140.831.1914FF26.42599.42230455.9833814234300.350562078154889223525250DRYMH
2019-08-13 16:00:11FORECAST20193233857.9844.351.1400.35170.36170.831.1917FF25.98599.98230455.9833814234300.334918092500859223525250DRYMH
2019-08-13 12:00:11FORECAST20193233861.7447.2454.4900.00320.01320.830.8432FF29.74593.74230455.9833814234300.4750408403889223415222.5DRYL
2019-08-13 08:00:11FORECAST20193233861.7447.2454.4900.00320.01320.840.8532FF29.74595.74230455.9833814234300.4750408403889223415222.5DRYL
2019-08-13 04:00:13FORECAST20193233861.3547.7654.55500.00320.01320.820.8332FF29.35600.35230455.9833814234300.460039084372189223515225DRYL
2019-08-13 00:00:13FORECAST20193233863.5947.9155.7500.00160.00160.810.8116FF31.59595.59230455.9833814234300.546322886761139233415225DRYL
2019-08-12 20:00:11FORECAST20193233863.5947.8955.7400.00160.00160.840.8416FF31.59607.59230455.9833814234300.546322886761139233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-12 16:00:11FORECAST20193233867.7748.0457.90500.0010.0010.830.831FF35.77613.77230455.9833814234300.698740991902769233515227.5DRYL
2019-08-12 12:00:12FORECAST20193233858.0650.7754.41500.0030.0230.850.873FF26.06595.06230455.9833814234300.337742215038599223415222.5DRYL
2019-08-12 08:00:11FORECAST20193233852.9550.6751.8100.00020.02020.860.8802FF20.95588.95230455.9833814234300.180592426458739213415220DRYL
2019-08-12 04:00:12FORECAST20193233851.7349.850.765000.020.890.91FF19.73587.73230455.9833814234300.151218629017949213415220DRYL