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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, August 18, 2019

[ Saturday, August 17, 2019 | Index | Today | Monday, August 19, 2019 ]

DAY 322 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/19/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.73°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.10°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 52.92°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.442
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 30
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 591

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.10 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.89 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 229
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 455.44 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 37

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-08-19 04:00:12OBSERVATION20193223761.7300644.0999652.91501000.10.790.89FF29.73006590.73006229455.44307233574 00.44228679483191 23425245DRYM
2019-08-19 00:00:13FORECAST20193223750.7450.7450.74000.10.790.89FF18.74579.74230455.9833814234300.1070519324329113425240DRYM
2019-08-18 12:00:11FORECAST20193223763.5148.3355.9200.01790.11790.790.9079FF31.51592.51230455.9833814234300.512945411010759133425250DRYMH
2019-08-18 08:00:13FORECAST20193223762.9947.2155.100.02030.12030.790.9103FF30.99591.99230455.9833814234300.492245725909039123425245DRYM
2019-08-18 04:00:13FORECAST20193223761.9846.854.3900.01690.11690.790.9069FF29.98590.98230455.9833814234300.452150025793059123425245DRYM
2019-08-18 00:00:13FORECAST20193223763.2846.5954.93500.01020.05020.790.8402FF31.28588.28229455.4430723357400.503790775474339133415225DRYL
2019-08-17 20:00:11FORECAST20193223763.3544.3253.83500.00470.06470.790.8547FF31.35600.35229455.4430723357400.506577402252389133515227.5DRYL
2019-08-17 16:00:11FORECAST20193223763.2946.0154.6500.01690.07690.790.8669FF31.29600.29229455.4430723357400.504188879510759133515227.5DRYL
2019-08-17 12:00:11FORECAST20193223762.6546.3454.49500.00740.06740.790.8574FF30.65599.65229455.4430723357400.478719125320749123515225DRYL
2019-08-17 08:00:11FORECAST20193223762.2446.3354.28500.01060.07060.790.8606FF30.24593.24229455.4430723357400.462441594274979123415222.5DRYL
2019-08-17 04:00:12FORECAST20193223762.347.2754.78500.0090.0690.790.859FF30.3599.3229455.4430723357400.464820401531949123515225DRYL
2019-08-17 00:00:13FORECAST20193223763.0346.7254.87500.00550.03550.790.8255FF31.03597.03229455.4430723357400.493837978475549123415222.5DRYL
2019-08-16 20:00:11FORECAST20193223762.8746.4454.65500.00710.04710.790.8371FF30.87607.87229455.4430723357400.487469810895449123515225DRYL
2019-08-16 16:00:11FORECAST20193223762.7445.9554.34500.00730.04730.790.8373FF30.74606.74229455.4430723357400.482297951464349123515225DRYL
2019-08-16 12:00:12FORECAST20193223762.245.5253.8600.02530.06530.790.8553FF30.2606.2229455.4430723357400.460856463399529123515225DRYL
2019-08-16 08:00:11FORECAST20193223761.6845.3953.53500.0220.0720.790.862FF29.68605.68229455.4430723357400.440315400049249123515225DRYL
2019-08-16 04:00:12FORECAST20193223761.0645.1753.11500.01380.05380.790.8438FF29.06603.06229455.4430723357400.416036937431819123515225DRYL
2019-08-16 00:00:13FORECAST20193223761.2144.9853.09500.01060.05060.790.8406FF29.21592.21229455.4430723357400.421885109301339123415222.5DRYL
2019-08-15 20:00:11FORECAST20193223761.1444.7152.92500.02260.05260.810.8626FF29.14603.14229455.4430723357400.419153736032389123515225DRYL
2019-08-15 16:00:11FORECAST20193223760.6344.852.71500.01690.03690.810.8469FF28.63603.63229455.4430723357400.399379149910069123515225DRYL
2019-08-15 12:00:11FORECAST20193223759.0544.8451.94500.02630.04630.810.8563FF27.05601.05229455.4430723357400.339937992055049123515225DRYL
2019-08-15 08:00:11FORECAST20193223764.3344.8854.60500.01680.02680.790.8168FF32.33604.33229455.4430723357400.545494790460979133515227.5DRYL
2019-08-15 04:00:12FORECAST20193223764.3246.3755.34500.01830.02830.80.8283FF32.32609.32229455.4430723357400.545099235515559133515227.5DRYL
2019-08-15 00:00:13FORECAST20193223763.6846.3555.01500.01790.04790.80.8479FF31.68592.68229455.4430723357400.519707768531829133415225DRYL
2019-08-14 20:00:11FORECAST20193223762.9145.4254.16500.00390.02390.80.8239FF30.91608.91229455.4430723357400.489061616764839123515225DRYL
2019-08-14 16:00:11FORECAST20193223762.8846.6954.78500.00340.02340.790.8134FF30.88607.88229455.4430723357400.487867744640619123515225DRYL
2019-08-14 12:00:12FORECAST20193223765.1148.256.65500.00480.02480.790.8148FF33.11608.11229455.4430723357400.576178592176619133515227.5DRYL
2019-08-14 08:00:11FORECAST20193223765.0948.256.64500.00480.01480.80.8148FF33.09608.09229455.4430723357400.575396754938839133515227.5DRYL
2019-08-14 04:00:15FORECAST20193223765.0248.156.5600.00440.01440.810.8244FF33.02618.02229455.4430723357400.572658007740249133515227.5DRYL
2019-08-14 00:00:13FORECAST20193223764.746.3655.5300.01490.03490.80.8349FF32.7595.7229455.4430723357400.560095343768859133415225DRYL
2019-08-13 20:00:11FORECAST20193223764.6346.2955.4600.01490.02490.820.8449FF32.63610.63229455.4430723357400.557338720608899133515227.5DRYL
2019-08-13 16:00:11FORECAST20193223764.947.856.3500.01460.02460.820.8446FF32.9611.9229455.4430723357400.567954928106099133515227.5DRYL
2019-08-13 12:00:11FORECAST20193223762.7946.8854.83500.0040.0240.820.844FF30.79601.79229455.4430723357400.484286823271759123515225DRYL
2019-08-13 08:00:11FORECAST20193223762.7846.8754.82500.0040.0240.830.854FF30.78603.78229455.4430723357400.483889016047089123515225DRYL
2019-08-13 04:00:13FORECAST20193223762.4747.554.98500.0040.0240.810.834FF30.47609.47229455.4430723357400.471566905618429123515225DRYL
2019-08-13 00:00:13FORECAST20193223762.6148.3755.4900.00150.00150.810.8115FF30.61601.61229455.4430723357400.477129069314169123515225DRYL
2019-08-12 20:00:11FORECAST20193223762.6148.3655.48500.00150.00150.840.8415FF30.61613.61229455.4430723357400.477129069314169123515225DRYL
2019-08-12 16:00:11FORECAST20193223762.6548.3555.500.00250.00250.830.8325FF30.65615.65229455.4430723357400.478719125320749123515225DRYL
2019-08-12 12:00:12FORECAST20193223767.1150.9159.0100.00470.04470.830.8747FF35.11607.11229455.4430723357400.652366825061859133515227.5DRYL
2019-08-12 08:00:11FORECAST20193223767.6250.6759.14500.00470.04470.840.8847FF35.62605.62229455.4430723357400.670977935885719133515227.5DRYL
2019-08-12 04:00:12FORECAST20193223766.1846.9456.5600.00250.08250.830.9125FF34.18606.18229455.4430723357400.617494805319139133515227.5DRYL
2019-08-12 00:00:13FORECAST20193223764.6849.8857.2800.00770.10770.640.7477FF32.68609.68229455.4430723357400.559308028348829133525255DRYH
2019-08-11 20:00:11FORECAST20193223764.6849.8957.28500.00750.10750.740.8475FF32.68610.68229455.4430723357400.559308028348829133525255DRYH
2019-08-11 16:00:11FORECAST20193223763.0948.6855.88500.0080.8280.721.548FF31.09597.09229455.4430723357400.496226533485339123435267.5DRYH
2019-08-11 12:00:11FORECAST20193223757.9749.1853.57500.01180.06180.710.7718FF25.97592.97229455.4430723357400.301386964196459123415222.5DRYL
2019-08-11 08:00:11FORECAST20193223750.3449.1949.76500.01180.06180.740.8018FF18.34586.34229455.4430723357400.0998611646357739113415220DRYL
2019-08-11 04:00:11FORECAST20193223748.4647.347.8800.00820.10820.780.8882FF16.46575.46229455.4430723357400.0707321577333569113425240DRYM